Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits

Quarterly Journal of Economics - Tập 137 Số 4 - Trang 2037-2105 - 2022
Tamma Carleton1, Amir Jina2, Michael Delgado3, Michael Greenstone2, Trevor Houser3, Solomon Hsiang4, Andrew Hultgren5, Robert E. Kopp6, Kelly E. McCusker3, Ishan Nath7, James Rising8, Ashwin Rode5, Hee Kwon Seo9, Arvid Viaene10, Jiacan Yuan11, Alice Tianbo Zhang12
1University of California, Santa Barbara, and National Bureau of Economic Research , United States
2University of Chicago and National Bureau of Economic Research , United States
3Rhodium Group , United States
4University of California, Berkeley, and National Bureau of Economic Research , United States
5University of Chicago, United States
6Rutgers University, United States.
7Princeton University, United States
8[University of Delaware, United States]
9World Bank , United States
10CompetitionSphere , Belgium
11Fudan University, People's Republic of China
12Washington and Lee University, United States

Tóm tắt

AbstractUsing 40 countries’ subnational data, we estimate age-specific mortality-temperature relationships and extrapolate them to countries without data today and into a future with climate change. We uncover a U-shaped relationship where extre6me cold and hot temperatures increase mortality rates, especially for the elderly. Critically, this relationship is flattened by higher incomes and adaptation to local climate. Using a revealed-preference approach to recover unobserved adaptation costs, we estimate that the mean global increase in mortality risk due to climate change, accounting for adaptation benefits and costs, is valued at roughly 3.2% of global GDP in 2100 under a high-emissions scenario. Notably, today’s cold locations are projected to benefit, while today’s poor and hot locations have large projected damages. Finally, our central estimates indicate that the release of an additional ton of CO2 today will cause mortality-related damages of $36.6 under a high-emissions scenario, with an interquartile range accounting for both econometric and climate uncertainty of [−$7.8, $73.0]. These empirically grounded estimates exceed the previous literature’s estimates by an order of magnitude.

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