Use of predictive habitat modelling to assess the distribution and extent of the current protection of ‘listed’ deep‐sea habitats

Diversity and Distributions - Tập 19 Số 4 - Trang 433-445 - 2013
Rebecca E. Ross1, Kerry L. Howell1
1Marine Biology & Ecology Research Centre, Marine Institute, Plymouth University, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK

Tóm tắt

AbstractAimTo demonstrate the application of predictive species distribution modelling methods to habitat mapping and assessment of percentage area‐based conservation targets.LocationTheNE Atlantic deep sea (UKand Irish extended continental shelf limits).MethodsMaxEnt modelling of three listed habitats (Lophelia pertusa(Linnaeus, 1758) reef (LpReef),Pheronema carpenteri(WyvilleThomson, 1869) aggregations (PcAggs) andSyringammina fragilissima(Brady, 1883) aggregations (SfAggs)), with some pre‐selection of variables by generalized additive modelling. Models are validated using repeated 70/30 build/test data splits usingAUCand threshold‐dependent assessment methods. Predicted distribution maps are used to assess the adequacy of existing area closures for the protection of listed habitats and to assess percentage representation of each community within existingMPAnetworks.ResultsModel performances are rated as fair (LpReef), excellent (PcAggs) and good (SfAggs). Current closures are focused on the protection of cold‐water coral reef and incidentally capture someSfAggs suitable environments, but largely fail to protectPcAggs. Considering the wider network ofMPAs in the study region, approximately 23% (LpReef), 2% (PcAggs) and 6% (SfAggs) of the area predicted as suitable for each habitat respectively is contained within anMPA.Main conclusionsTo date, decisions on area closures for the protection of ‘listed’ deep‐sea habitats have been based on maps of recorded presence of species that are taken as being indicative of that habitat. Predictive habitat modelling may provide a useful method of better estimating the extent of listed habitats, providing direction for futureMPAestablishment and a means of assessingMPAnetwork effectiveness against politically set percentage targets. Given the coarse resolution of the model, percentages should be taken as maximal figures, with habitat occurrence likely to be less prevalent in reality.

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Diversity and Distributions

Tập 19 Số 4

433-445

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