Hiểu biết về động lực lạm phát trong Khu vực Euro: những khác biệt và điểm chung giữa các quốc gia thành viên

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Tập 44 - Trang 261-293 - 2016
Johanna Amberger1, Ralf Fendel1
1Department of Economics, WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management, Vallendar, Germany

Tóm tắt

Trọng tâm của bài báo này là phân tích động lực lạm phát trong Khu vực Euro cũng như trong mười một quốc gia thành viên Khu vực Euro từ năm 1990 đến năm 2012. Dựa trên đường cong Phillips mới Keynes hybrid, các phân tích bao gồm các thước đo khảo sát từ Consensus Economics để so sánh động lực lạm phát giữa các quốc gia thành viên Khu vực Euro. Sự chú ý đặc biệt được đặt vào việc lựa chọn các thước đo chi phí biên thực tế phù hợp. Ngoài khoảng trống sản lượng đã được biết đến, vai trò của các khoảng trống sản lượng trung tính về tài chính và khoảng trống thất nghiệp cũng được xem xét. Trong suốt các phân tích, việc định giá được phát hiện chủ yếu mang tính chất hồi cứu, nhưng có xu hướng giảm theo thời gian. Sự nhạy cảm khác nhau của các quốc gia đối với các thước đo chi phí biên thực tế khác nhau được làm nổi bật, điều này có thể chỉ ra sự khác biệt lâu dài trong động lực lạm phát của Khu vực Euro. Với sự khởi đầu của cuộc khủng hoảng tài chính, các khoảng trống sản lượng trung tính về tài chính vượt trội hơn các thước đo biên thực tế khác.

Từ khóa

#lạm phát #Khu vực Euro #động lực lạm phát #chi phí biên thực tế #khoảng trống sản lượng #khoảng trống thất nghiệp

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