Toward a Multidimensional Model for Sexual Recidivism Risk

Journal of Interpersonal Violence - Tập 19 Số 8 - Trang 835-856 - 2004
Dennis M. Doren1
1Sand Ridge Secure Treatment Center, Evaluation Unit, Madsion, Wisconsin, USA.

Tóm tắt

The paradigm underlying current sexual offender recidivism risk assessment procedures conceptualizes such risk in a linear fashion, ranging on a single continuum from 0% to 100%. Each risk and protective characteristic thought of relevance in an evaluation is used as an indicator of increased or decreased risk, respectively, along that same continuum. This conceptualization of risk was useful as a starting place for the application of empirically supported risk and protective factors. On the other hand, this perspective is likely simplistic and therefore potentially results in some errors that a more sophisticated assessment model would avoid. Recent research findings indicate support for a multidimensional model for sexual recidivism risk. This article explores what we already know about the existence of multiple risk dimensions, what those dimensions may be, and which risk factors assess which dimension. Implications for risk assessment procedures are discussed including how risk evaluations using this model might be conducted.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Barbaree, H. E., Blanchard, R. & Langton, C. M. (2002, April). The development of sexual aggression through the lifespan: The effect of age on sexual arousal and recidivism among sex offenders. Paper presented at the conference of the New York Academy of Science, Washington, DC.

10.1177/009385480102800406

Boer, D. P., Hart, S. D., Kropp, P. R. & Webster, C. D. (1998). Manual for the Sexual Violence Risk—20: Professional guidelines for assessing risk of sexual violence. Vancouver, Canada: The British Columbia Institute Against Family Violence & The Mental Health, Law, & Policy Institute.

Butz-Whittaker, J. W., Strassberg, D. S. & the Center for Family Development (2001, November). The Sex Offender Treatment Outcome Predictor—Static/Dynamic (SOTOP-S/D). Poster presented at the 20th Annual Conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, San Antonio, TX.

Dempster, R. J. (1999). Prediction of sexually violent recidivism: A comparison of risk assessment instruments. Paper presented at the 18th Annual Research and Treatment Conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, Vancouver, Canada.

10.1177/107906320201400204

Doren, D. M. (2002). Evaluating sex offenders: A manual for civil commitments and beyond. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

Doren, D. M. (2003). The relative value of the RRASOR and Static-99 in assessing high risk for sexual recidivism. Unpublished manuscript.

10.1177/107906320401600102

Epperson, D. L., Kaul, J. D., Huot, S. J., Hesselton, D., Alexander, W. & Goldman, R. (1999). Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool—Revised (MnSOST-R): Development, performance, and recommended risk level cut scores. Retrieved from http://129.186.143.73/faculty/epperson/mnsost_download.htm

Frothingham, S., Washburn, J., Murphy, R. & Gordon, A. (2001, November). Does the penis agree with risk assessments? Poster presented at the 20th Annual Conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, San Antonio, TX.

10.1177/009385480102800403

Hanson, R. K. (1997). The development of a brief actuarial risk scale for sexual offense recidivism. Ottowa, Canada: Department of the Solicitor General of Canada. Retrieved from http://www.sgc.gc.ca/publications/corrections/199704_e.pdf

Hanson, R. K. (2001). Age and sexual recidivism: A comparison of rapists and child molesters. Retrieved from www.sgc.gc.ca/publications/corrections/Age200101e.asp

10.1037/0022-006X.66.2.348

10.1023/A:1005482921333

10.1037/1040-3590.15.3.413

10.1177/107906320401600101

10.1177/088626099014008001

Knight, R. A. (1999, September). Unified theory of sexual coercion. Paper presented at the 18th Annual Research and Treatment Conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers in Lake Buena Vista, FL.

Kropp, P. R. (2000, November). The Risk for Sexual Violence Protocol (RSVP). Paper presented at the 19th Annual Conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, San Diego, CA.

Langton, C. M. (2003). Contrasting approaches to risk assessment with adult male sexual offenders: An evaluation of recidivism prediction schemes and the utility of supplementary clinical information for enhancing predictive accuracy. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.

Marsh, C. L., Jurek, A., Tyre, C. & Kiedrowski, C. (2003, March). A cross-validation of the Screening Scale for Pedophilic Interest. Paper presented at the Annual Conference of the Minnesota Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, Brooklyn Park, NY.

Marshall, W. L., Anderson, D. & Fernandez, Y. (1999). Cognitive behavioral treatment of sexual offenders. New York: Wiley.

10.1016/S0272-7358(99)00013-6

10.1080/00224490209552127

McGrath, R. J., Hoke, S. E., Livingston, J. A. & Cumming, G. F. (2001, November). The Vermont Assessment of Sex Offender Risk (VASOR): An initial reliability and validity study. Paper presented at the 20th annual conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, San Antonio, TX.

Nicholaichuk, T. P. & Yates, P. M. (2002). Treatment efficacy: Outcomes for the Clearwater Sex Offender Program. In B. Schwartz (Ed.) The sex offender—volume 4 (pp. 7-18). New York: Civic Research Institute.

10.1177/107906320201400305

10.1037/0022-006X.59.5.643

10.1177/107906329901100203

Quinsey, V. L., Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E. & Cormier, C. A. (1998). Violent offenders: Appraising and managing risk. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.

10.1023/A:1024882430242

10.1177/009385402236733

10.1177/088626001016003004

Seto, M. C., Barbaree, H. E. & Langton, C. M. (2002, October). How should we interpret the results of multiple actuarial risk assessment instruments? Paper presented at the 21st Annual Conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, Montreal, Canada.

10.1177/107906320101300103

Thornton, D. & Doren, D. M. (2002, October). How much safer are older offenders? Presentation at the 21st Annual Conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, Montreal, Canada.

Webster, C. D., Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., Cormier, C. & Quinsey, V. L. (1994). The violence prediction scheme: Assessing dangerousness in high risk men. Toronto, Canada: University of Toronto, Centre of Criminology.