Thermohaline Circulation, the Achilles Heel of Our Climate System: Will Man-Made CO <sub>2</sub> Upset the Current Balance?
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The aggregate temperature of waters carried into the northern Atlantic is about 11°C. That of the aggregate deep water formed in the northern Atlantic is about 3°C. Thus the heat release to the atmosphere is 8 cal/cm 3 x 15 x 10 12 cm 3 /s x 3:14 x 10 7 s/year or about 4 x 10 21 cal/year. This is equal to roughly 25% of the energy supplied annually to the troposphere over the Atlantic north of the Straits of Gibraltar.
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A number of estimates of net flux of water vapor out of the Atlantic Ocean and its continental drainage basin have been made. Baumgartner and Reichel's global water balance yielded 0.45 Sv. Using Oort's [A. H. Oort NOAA Prof. Pap. 14 (1983)] humidity and wind data Zaucker and Broecker [
] obtained 0.32 Sv. Estimates obtained using GCM models are generally lower for example the Miller and Russell [
] GISS 8° x 10° model obtain 0.12 Sv. Based on this wide range of estimates I conclude that the flux likely lies in the range 0.25 ± 0.15 Sv. In order to balance this loss the difference in salinity between the 15 Sv of North Atlantic deep water carried around the southern tip of Africa by the Conveyor's lower limb and that of the aggregate return flow must be 0.57 ± 0.34 g/liter.
The Sverdrup (Sv) is a unit of water transport. One Sverdrup is equal to 1 x 10 6 m 3 /s. The transport by today's Conveyor is about 15 Sv compared to that of all the world's rivers of about 1 Sv.
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My recent ideas about sedimentary cycles in the distant past have been tempered by discussions with A. Fischer B. Berggren N. Christie-Blick D. Kent P. Olsen P. Lohmann L. Hinnov P. deMenocal F. Read J. Banner and B. Cecil. It was a push by T. Edgar that launched me down this track. Over the years discussions with M. Bender G. Denton J. Jouzel G. Bond R. Alley J. Severinghaus and J. Imbrie have molded my thinking about the events of the Late Quaternary. In this case it was ideas about multiple climate states expressed to me by H. Oeschger in 1984 that sparked my thinking. My research on the oceans has benefited from the wisdom of T. Stocker T. Takahashi S. Rahmstorf R. Toggweiler E. Maier-Reimer S. Manabe J. Marotzke J. McWilliams U. Mikolajewicz A. Gordon and P. Schlosser. It was the late H. Stommel who inspired me to a new level of thinking and action (that is the GEOSECS program). S. Peacock has worked with me on the problem of deep water formation in the Southern Ocean. J. Totton and P. Catanzaro transformed my hand scribbles into readable manuscript.