The status and challenge of global fire modelling

Biogeosciences - Tập 13 Số 11 - Trang 3359-3375
Stijn Hantson1, Almut Arneth1, Sandy P. Harrison2,3, Douglas I. Kelley2,3, I. Colin Prentice4,3, Sam S. Rabin5, Sally Archibald6,7, Florent Mouillot8, S. R. Arnold9, Paulo Artaxo10, Dominique Bachelet11,12, Philippe Ciais13, Matthew Forrest14, Pierre Friedlingstein15, Thomas Hickler16,14, Jed O. Kaplan17, Silvia Kloster18, Wolfgang Knorr19, Gitta Lasslop18, Fang Li20, Stéphane Mangeon21, Joe R. Melton22, Andrea Meyn23, Stephen Sitch24, Allan Spessa25,26, Guido R. van der Werf27, Apostolos Voulgarakis21, Chao Yue13
1Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
2School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Sciences (SAGES), University of Reading, Reading, UK
3School of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia
4AXA Chair of Biosphere and Climate Impacts, Grand Challenges in Ecosystem and the Environment, Department of Life Sciences and Grantham Institute, Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK
5Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
6Natural Resources and the Environment, CSIR, P.O. Box 395, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa
7School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2050, South Africa
8UMR5175 CEFE, CNRS/Université de Montpellier/Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier/EPHE/IRD, 1919 route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier CEDEX 5, France
9Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth & Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
10Institute of Physics, University of São Paulo, Rua do Matão, Travessa R, 187, CEP05508-090, São Paulo, S.P., Brazil
11Biological and Ecological Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
12Conservation Biology Institute, 136 SW Washington Ave., Suite 202, Corvallis, OR 97333, USA
13Laboratoire des Sciences Du Climat et de L’Environnement (LSCE/IPSL), CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91198, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
14Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Institute (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
15College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
16Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University, Altenhöferallee 1, 60438 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
17Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics. University of Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
18Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 53, 20164 Hamburg, Germany
19Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, 22362 Lund, Sweden
20International Center for Climate and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
21Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, UK
22Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, V8W 2Y2, Canada
23Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Atmosphere and Climate Programme, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany
24College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4RJ, UK
25Department Atmospheric Chemistry, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany
26Department of Environment, Earth and Ecosystems, Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
27Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1085, 1081HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Tóm tắt

Abstract. Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Aldersley, A., Murray, S. J., and Cornell, S. E.: Global and regional analysis of climate and human drivers of wildfire, Science of The Total Environment, 409, 3472–3481, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.05.032, 2011.

Alonso-Canas, I. and Chuvieco, E.: Global burned area mapping from Envisat-Meris and Modis active fire data, Remote Sens. Environ., 163, 140–152, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2015.03.011, 2015.

Andela, N. and van der Werf, G. R.: Recent trends in African fires driven by cropland expansion and El Niño La Niña transition, Nature Climate Change, 4, 791–795, 2014.

Archibald, S., Lehmann, C. E. R., Gómez-Dans, J. L., and Bradstock, R. A.: Defining pyromes and global syndromes of fire regimes, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 6442–6447, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1211466110, 2013.

Arora, V. K. and Boer, G. J.: Fire as an interactive component of dynamic vegetation models, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 110, G02008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005jg000042, 2005.

Asaf, D., Rotenberg, E., Tatarinov, F., Dicken, U., Montzka, S. A., and Yakir, D.: Ecosystem photosynthesis inferred from measurements of carbonyl sulphide flux, Nat. Geosci., 6, 186–190, 2013.

Bistinas, I., Harrison, S. P., Prentice, I. C., and Pereira, J. M. C.: Causal relationships versus emergent patterns in the global controls of fire frequency, Biogeosciences, 11, 5087–5101, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5087-2014, 2014.

Boden, T., Marland, G., and Andres, R.: Global, regional, and national fossil-fuel CO2 emissions, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, 2013.

Bond-Lamberty, B., Peckham, S. D., Ahl, D. E., and Gower, S. T.: Fire as the dominant driver of central Canadian boreal forest carbon balance, Nature, 450, 89–92, 2007.

Bond, W. J., Woodward, F. I., and Midgley, G. F.: The global distribution of ecosystems in a world without fire, New Phytol., 165, 525–538, 2005.

Boucher, O., Randall, D., Artaxo, P., Bretherton, C., Feingold, G., Forster, P., Kerminen, V.-M., Kondo, Y., Liao, H., and Lohmann, U.: Clouds and aerosols, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, 741–866, 2014.

Bousquet, P., Ciais, P., Miller, J. B., Dlugokencky, E. J., Hauglustaine, D. A., Prigent, C., van der Werf, G. R., Peylin, P., Brunke, E. G., Carouge, C., Langenfelds, R. L., Lathiere, J., Papa, F., Ramonet, M., Schmidt, M., Steele, L. P., Tyler, S. C., and White, J.: Contribution of anthropogenic and natural sources to atmospheric methane variability, Nature, 443, 439–443, 2006.

Bowman, D. M. J. S., Balch, J. K., Artaxo, P., Bond, W. J., Carlson, J. M., Cochrane, M. A., D'Antonio, C. M., DeFries, R. S., Doyle, J. C., Harrison, S. P., Johnston, F. H., Keeley, J. E., Krawchuk, M. A., Kull, C. A., Marston, J. B., Moritz, M. A., Prentice, I. C., Roos, C. I., Scott, A. C., Swetnam, T. W., van der Werf, G. R., and Pyne, S. J.: Fire in the Earth System, Science, 324, 481–484, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1163886, 2009.

Bowman, D. M. J. S., Balch, J., Artaxo, P., Bond, W. J., Cochrane, M. A., D'Antonio, C. M., DeFries, R., Johnston, F. H., Keeley, J. E., Krawchuk, M. A., Kull, C. A., Mack, M., Moritz, M. A., Pyne, S., Roos, C. I., Scott, A. C., Sodhi, N. S., and Swetnam, T. W.: The human dimension of fire regimes on earth, J. Biogeogr., 38, 2223–2236, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02595.x, 2011.

Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Kageyama, M., Bartlein, P. J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Abe-Ouchi, A., Otto-Bliesner, B., and Zhao, Y.: Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data, Nature Climate Change, 2, 417–424, 2012.

Brücher, T., Brovkin, V., Kloster, S., Marlon, J. R., and Power, M. J.: Comparing modelled fire dynamics with charcoal records for the Holocene, Clim. Past, 10, 811–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-811-2014, 2014.

Chen, Y., Randerson, J. T., van der Werf, G. R., Morton, D. C., Mu, M., and Kasibhatla, P. S.: Nitrogen deposition in tropical forests from savanna and deforestation fires, Glob. Change Biol., 16, 2024–2038, 2010.

Ciais, P., Sabine, C., Bala, G., Bopp, L., Brovkin, V., Canadell, J., Chhabra, A., DeFries, R., Galloway, J., and Heimann, M.: Carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, 741–866, 2014.

Cirino, G. G., Souza, R. A. F., Adams, D. K., and Artaxo, P.: The effect of atmospheric aerosol particles and clouds on net ecosystem exchange in the Amazon, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6523–6543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6523-2014, 2014.

Dai, Y., Zeng, X., Dickinson, R. E., Baker, I., Bonan, G. B., Bosilovich, M. G., Denning, A. S., Dirmeyer, P. A., Houser, P. R., Niu, G., Oleson, K. W., Schlosser, C. A., and Yang, Z.-L.: The Common Land Model, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 84, 1013–1023, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-84-8-1013, 2003.

Daniau, A. L., Bartlein, P. J., Harrison, S. P., Prentice, I. C., Brewer, S., Friedlingstein, P., Harrison-Prentice, T. I., Inoue, J., Izumi, K., Marlon, J. R., Mooney, S., Power, M. J., Stevenson, J., Tinner, W., Andric, M., Atanassova, J., Behling, H., Black, M., Blarquez, O., Brown, K. J., Carcaillet, C., Colhoun, E. A., Colombaroli, D., Davis, B. A. S., D'Costa, D., Dodson, J., Dupont, L., Eshetu, Z., Gavin, D. G., Genries, A., Haberle, S., Hallett, D. J., Hope, G., Horn, S. P., Kassa, T. G., Katamura, F., Kennedy, L. M., Kershaw, P., Krivonogov, S., Long, C., Magri, D., Marinova, E., McKenzie, G. M., Moreno, P. I., Moss, P., Neumann, F. H., Norstrom, E., Paitre, C., Rius, D., Roberts, N., Robinson, G. S., Sasaki, N., Scott, L., Takahara, H., Terwilliger, V., Thevenon, F., Turner, R., Valsecchi, V. G., Vanniere, B., Walsh, M., Williams, N., and Zhang, Y.: Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 26, Gb4007, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011gb004249, 2012.

Dorigo, W. A., Scipal, K., Parinussa, R. M., Liu, Y. Y., Wagner, W., de Jeu, R. A. M., and Naeimi, V.: Error characterisation of global active and passive microwave soil moisture datasets, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2605–2616, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2605-2010, 2010.

Eliseev, A. V., Mokhov, I. I., and Chernokulsky, A. V.: An ensemble approach to simulate CO2 emissions from natural fires, Biogeosciences, 11, 3205–3223, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3205-2014, 2014.

Fisher, R. A., Muszala, S., Verteinstein, M., Lawrence, P., Xu, C., McDowell, N. G., Knox, R. G., Koven, C., Holm, J., Rogers, B. M., Spessa, A., Lawrence, D., and Bonan, G.: Taking off the training wheels: the properties of a dynamic vegetation model without climate envelopes, CLM4.5(ED), Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3593–3619, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3593-2015, 2015.

Flato, G., Marotzke, J., Abiodun, B., Braconnot, P., Chou, S., Collins, W., Cox, P., Driouech, F., Emori, S., Eyring, Forest, V.C., Gleckler, P., Guilyardi, E., Jakob, C., Kattsov, V., Reason, C., and Rummukainen, M.: Evaluation of climate models, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, 741–866, 2014.

Friedlingstein, P., Meinshausen, M., Arora, V. K., Jones, C. D., Anav, A., Liddicoat, S. K., and Knutti, R.: Uncertainties in CMIP5 climate projections due to carbon cycle feedbacks, J. Climate, 27, 511–526, 2014.

Furley, P. A., Rees, R. M., Ryan, C. M., and Saiz, G.: Savanna burning and the assessment of long-term fire experiments with particular reference to Zimbabwe, Prog. Phys. Geog., 32, 611–634, https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133308101383, 2008.

Gerten, D., Schaphoff, S., Haberlandt, U., Lucht, W., and Sitch, S.: Terrestrial vegetation and water balance – hydrological evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model, J. Hydrol., 286, 249–270, 2004.

Giglio, L., Randerson, J. T., and van der Werf, G. R.: Analysis of daily, monthly, and annual burned area using the fourth-generation global fire emissions database (GFED4), J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 118, 317–328, 2013.

Guerlet, S., Basu, S., Butz, A., Krol, M., Hahne, P., Houweling, S., Hasekamp, O. P., and Aben, I.: Reduced carbon uptake during the 2010 northern hemisphere summer from GOSAT, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2378–2383, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50402, 2013.

Guha-Sapir, D., Below, R., and Hoyois, P.: EM-DAT: International Disaster Database, available at: www.emdat.be, Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium, last access: 4 April 2015.

Hargreaves, J. C., Annan, J. D., Ohgaito, R., Paul, A., and Abe-Ouchi, A.: Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene, Clim. Past, 9, 811–823, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-811-2013, 2013.

Harrison, S. P., Bartlein, P. J., Brewer, S., Prentice, I. C., Boyd, M., Hessler, I., Holmgren, K., Izumi, K., and Willis, K.: Climate model benchmarking with glacial and mid-Holocene climates, Clim. Dynam., 43, 671–688, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1922-6, 2014.

Harrison, S. P., Bartlein, P. J., Izumi, K., Li, G., Annan, J., Hargreaves, J., Braconnot, P. B., and Kageyama, M.: Implications of evaluation of CMIP5 palaeosimulations for climate projections, Nature Climate Change, 5, 735–743, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2649, 2015.

Hirota, M., Holmgren, M., Van Nes, E. H., and Scheffer, M.: Global resilience of tropical forest and savanna to critical transitions, Science, 334, 232–235, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1210657, 2011.

Huntzinger, D. N., Schwalm, C. R., Wei, Y., Cook, R. B., Michalak, A. M., Schaefer, K., Jacobson, A. R., Arain, M. A., Ciais, P., Fisher, J. B., Hayes, D. J., Huang, M., Huang, S., Ito, A., Jain, A. K., Lei, H., Lu, C., Maignan, F., Mao, J., Parazoo, N., Peng, C., Peng, S., Poulter, B., Ricciuto, D. M., Tian, H., Shi, X., Wang, W., Zeng, N., Zhao, F., and Zhu, Q.: NACP MsTMIP: Global 0.5-deg Terrestrial Biosphere Model Outputs (version 1) in Standard Format, Data set, available at: http://daac.ornl.gov, from Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA, https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1225, 2016.

Johnston, F. H., Henderson, S. B., Chen, Y., Randerson, J. T., Marlier, M., DeFries, R. S., Kinney, P., Bowman, D. M. J. S., and Brauer, M.: Estimated global mortality attributable to smoke from landscape fires, Environ. Health Persp., 120, 695–701, https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1104422, 2012.

Kaiser, J. W., Heil, A., Andreae, M. O., Benedetti, A., Chubarova, N., Jones, L., Morcrette, J.-J., Razinger, M., Schultz, M. G., Suttie, M., and van der Werf, G. R.: Biomass burning emissions estimated with a global fire assimilation system based on observed fire radiative power, Biogeosciences, 9, 527–554, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-527-2012, 2012.

Kaminski, T., Knorr, W., Schürmann, G., Scholze, M., Rayner, P. J., Zaehle, S., Blessing, S., Dorigo, W., Gayler, V., Giering, R., Gobron, N., Grant, J. P., Heimann, M., Hooker-Stroud, A., Houweling, S., Kato, T., Kattge, J., Kelley, D., Kemp, S., Koffi, E. N., Köstler, C., Mathieu, P. P., Pinty, B., Reick, C. H., Rödenbeck, C., Schnur, R., Scipal, K., Sebald, C., Stacke, T., van Scheltinga, A. T., Vossbeck, M., Widmann, H., and Ziehn, T.: The BETHY/JSBACH carbon cycle data assimilation system: Experiences and challenges, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 118, 1414–1426, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrg.20118, 2013.

Kawamura, K., Izawa, Y., Mochida, M., and Shiraiwa, T.: Ice core records of biomass burning tracers (levoglucosan and dehydroabietic, vanillic and p-hydroxybenzoic acids) and total organic carbon for past 300 years in the Kamchatka Peninsula, northeast Asia, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 99, 317–329, 2012.

Kelley, D. and Harrison, S. P.: Enhanced Australian carbon sink despite increased wildfire during the 21st century, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 104015, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104015, 2014.

Kelley, D. I., Prentice, I. C., Harrison, S. P., Wang, H., Simard, M., Fisher, J. B., and Willis, K. O.: A comprehensive benchmarking system for evaluating global vegetation models, Biogeosciences, 10, 3313–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3313-2013, 2013.

Kelley, D. I., Harrison, S. P., and Prentice, I. C.: Improved simulation of fire-vegetation interactions in the Land surface Processes and eXchanges dynamic global vegetation model (LPX-Mv1), Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2411–2433, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2411-2014, 2014.

Kloster, S., Mahowald, N. M., Randerson, J. T., Thornton, P. E., Hoffman, F. M., Levis, S., Lawrence, P. J., Feddema, J. J., Oleson, K. W., and Lawrence, D. M.: Fire dynamics during the 20th century simulated by the Community Land Model, Biogeosciences, 7, 1877–1902, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-1877-2010, 2010.

Kloster, S., Mahowald, N. M., Randerson, J. T., and Lawrence, P. J.: The impacts of climate, land use, and demography on fires during the 21st century simulated by CLM-CN, Biogeosciences, 9, 509–525, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-509-2012, 2012.

Knorr, W., Kaminski, T., Arneth, A., and Weber, U.: Impact of human population density on fire frequency at the global scale, Biogeosciences, 11, 1085–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1085-2014, 2014.

Knorr, W., Jiang, L., and Arneth, A.: Climate, CO2 and human population impacts on global wildfire emissions, Biogeosciences, 13, 267–282, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-267-2016, 2016.

Krinner, G., Viovy, N., de Noblet-Ducoudre, N., Ogee, J., Polcher, J., Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., Sitch, S., and Prentice, I. C.: A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere-biosphere system, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 19, 44, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003gb002199, 2005.

Lasslop, G., Thonicke, K., and Kloster, S.: SPITFIRE within the MPI Earth System Model: Model development and evaluation, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 6, 740–755, 10.1002/2013ms000284, 2014.

Lehsten, V., Tansey, K., Balzter, H., Thonicke, K., Spessa, A., Weber, U., Smith, B., and Arneth, A.: Estimating carbon emissions from African wildfires, Biogeosciences, 6, 349–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-6-349-2009, 2009.

Lenihan, J. and Bachelet, D.: Historical climate and suppression effects on simulated fire and carbon dynamics in the conterminous United States, in: Global Vegetation Dynamics: Concepts and Applications in the MC1 Model, edited by: Bachelet, D. and Turner, D., AGU Geophysical Monographs 214, 17–30, 2015.

Lenihan, J. M., Daly, C., Bachelet, D., and Neilson, R. P.: Simulating broad-scale fire severity in a dynamic global vegetation model, Northwest Sci., 72, 91–101, 1998.

Le Page, Y., Morton, D., Bond-Lamberty, B., Pereira, J. M. C., and Hurtt, G.: HESFIRE: a global fire model to explore the role of anthropogenic and weather drivers, Biogeosciences, 12, 887–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-887-2015, 2015.

Levis, S., Bonan, G., Vertenstein, M., and Oleson, K.: The Community Land Model's Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CLM-DGVM): Technical Description and User's Guide, NCAR Tech. Note TN-459+ IA, 50, 2004.

Li, F., Zeng, X. D., and Levis, S.: A process-based fire parameterization of intermediate complexity in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, Biogeosciences, 9, 2761–2780, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-2761-2012, 2012.

Li, F., Levis, S., and Ward, D. S.: Quantifying the role of fire in the Earth system – Part 1: Improved global fire modeling in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1), Biogeosciences, 10, 2293–2314, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2293-2013, 2013.

Li, F., Bond-Lamberty, B., and Levis, S.: Quantifying the role of fire in the Earth system – Part 2: Impact on the net carbon balance of global terrestrial ecosystems for the 20th century, Biogeosciences, 11, 1345–1360, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1345-2014, 2014.

Liu, Y. Y., van Dijk, A. I., de Jeu, R. A., Canadell, J. G., McCabe, M. F., Evans, J. P., and Wang, G.: Recent reversal in loss of global terrestrial biomass, Nature Climate Change, 5, 470–474, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2581, 2015.

Luo, Y. Q., Randerson, J. T., Abramowitz, G., Bacour, C., Blyth, E., Carvalhais, N., Ciais, P., Dalmonech, D., Fisher, J. B., Fisher, R., Friedlingstein, P., Hibbard, K., Hoffman, F., Huntzinger, D., Jones, C. D., Koven, C., Lawrence, D., Li, D. J., Mahecha, M., Niu, S. L., Norby, R., Piao, S. L., Qi, X., Peylin, P., Prentice, I. C., Riley, W., Reichstein, M., Schwalm, C., Wang, Y. P., Xia, J. Y., Zaehle, S., and Zhou, X. H.: A framework for benchmarking land models, Biogeosciences, 9, 3857–3874, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-3857-2012, 2012.

Mangeon, S., Voulgarakis, A., Gilham, R., Harper, A., Sitch, S., and Folberth, G.: INFERNO: a fire and emissions scheme for the Met Office's Unified Model, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-32, in review, 2016.

Marlier, M. E., DeFries, R. S., Voulgarakis, A., Kinney, P. L., Randerson, J. T., Shindell, D. T., Chen, Y., and Faluvegi, G.: El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in southeast Asia, Nature Climate Change, 3, 131–136, 2013.

Marlon, J. R., Bartlein, P. J., Carcaillet, C., Gavin, D. G., Harrison, S. P., Higuera, P. E., Joos, F., Power, M. J., and Prentice, I. C.: Climate and human influences on global biomass burning over the past two millennia, Nat. Geosci., 1, 697–702, 2008.

Marlon, J. R., Bartlein, P. J., Daniau, A.-L., Harrison, S. P., Maezumi, S. Y., Power, M. J., Tinner, W., and Vanniére, B.: Global biomass burning: A synthesis and review of Holocene paleofire records and their controls, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 65, 5–25, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.11.029, 2013.

Melton, J. R. and Arora, V. K.: Competition between plant functional types in the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM) v. 2.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 323–361, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-323-2016, 2016.

Mercado, L. M., Bellouin, N., Sitch, S., Boucher, O., Huntingford, C., Wild, M., and Cox, P. M.: Impact of changes in diffuse radiation on the global land carbon sink, Nature, 458, 1014–1017, 2009.

Moritz, M. A., Parisien, M.-A., Batllori, E., Krawchuk, M. A., Van Dorn, J., Ganz, D. J., and Hayhoe, K.: Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity, Ecosphere, 3, 49, https://doi.org/10.1890/ES11-00345.1, 2012.

Morton, D., Defries, R., Randerson, J., Giglio, L., Schroeder, W., and van der Werf, G.: Agricultural intensification increases deforestation fire activity in Amazonia, Glob. Change Biol., 14, 2262–2275, 2008.

Myhre, G., Myhre, C., Samset, B., and Storelvmo, T.: Aerosols and their relation to global climate and climate sensitivity, Nature Ed. Know., 4, 7, 2013.

Pachzelt, A., Forrest, M., Rammig, A., Higgins, S. I., and Hickler, T.: Potential impact of large ungulate grazers on African vegetation, carbon storage and fire regimes, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 24, 991–1002, https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12313, 2015.

Pacifico, F., Folberth, G. A., Sitch, S., Haywood, J. M., Rizzo, L. V., Malavelle, F. F., and Artaxo, P.: Biomass burning related ozone damage on vegetation over the Amazon forest: a model sensitivity study, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2791–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2791-2015, 2015.

Padilla, M., Stehman, S. V., Ramo, R., Corti, D., Hantson, S., Oliva, P., Alonso-Canas, I., Bradley, A. V., Tansey, K., Mota, B., Pereira, J. M., and Chuvieco, E.: Comparing the accuracies of remote sensing global burned area products using stratified random sampling and estimation, Remote Sens. Environ., 160, 114–121, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2015.01.005, 2015.

Pausas, J. G. and Keeley, J. E.: Evolutionary ecology of resprouting and seeding in fire-prone ecosystems, New Phytol., 204, 55–65, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.12921, 2014.

Pechony, O. and Shindell, D. T.: Fire parameterization on a global scale, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D16115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009jd011927, 2009.

Pechony, O. and Shindell, D. T.: Driving forces of global wildfires over the past millennium and the forthcoming century, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 19167–19170, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1003669107, 2010.

Petrenko, V. V., Martinerie, P., Novelli, P., Etheridge, D. M., Levin, I., Wang, Z., Blunier, T., Chappellaz, J., Kaiser, J., Lang, P., Steele, L. P., Hammer, S., Mak, J., Langenfelds, R. L., Schwander, J., Severinghaus, J. P., Witrant, E., Petron, G., Battle, M. O., Forster, G., Sturges, W. T., Lamarque, J.-F., Steffen, K., and White, J. W. C.: A 60 yr record of atmospheric carbon monoxide reconstructed from Greenland firn air, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7567–7585, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7567-2013, 2013.

Pfeiffer, M., Spessa, A., and Kaplan, J. O.: A model for global biomass burning in preindustrial time: LPJ-LMfire (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 643–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-643-2013, 2013.

Power, M., Marlon, J., Bartlein, P., and Harrison, S.: Fire history and the global charcoal database: A new tool for hypothesis testing and data exploration, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 291, 52–59, 2010.

Prentice, I. C., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W., Harrison, S.P., Hickler, T., Lucht, W., Sitch, S., Smith, B., and Sykes, M.: Dynamic global vegetation modeling: Quantifying terrestrial ecosystem responses to large-scale environmental change, in: Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing World, edited by: Canadell, J., Pataki, D., and Pitelka, L., Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 175–192, 2007.

Prentice, I. C., Kelley, D. I., Foster, P. N., Friedlingstein, P., Harrison, S. P., and Bartlein, P. J.: Modeling fire and the terrestrial carbon balance, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 25, GB3005, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010gb003906, 2011.

Randerson, J., Chen, Y., van der Werf, G., Rogers, B., and Morton, D.: Global burned area and biomass burning emissions from small fires, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 117, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JG002128, 2012.

Randerson, J. T., Hoffman, F. M., Thornton, P. E., Mahowald, N. M., Lindsay, K., Lee, Y.-H., Nevison, C. D., Doney, S. C., Bonan, G., Stöckli, R., Covey, C., Running, S. W., and Fung, I. Y.: Systematic assessment of terrestrial biogeochemistry in coupled climate–carbon models, Glob. Change Biol., 15, 2462–2484, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01912.x, 2009.

Reick, C. H., Raddatz, T., Brovkin, V., and Gayler, V.: Representation of natural and anthropogenic land cover change in MPI-ESM, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 5, 459–482, https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20022, 2013.

Rogers, B. M., Neilson, R. P., Drapek, R., Lenihan, J. M., Wells, J. R., Bachelet, D., and Law, B. E.: Impacts of climate change on fire regimes and carbon stocks of the U.S. Pacific Northwest, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 116, G03037, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jg001695, 2011.

Rogers, B. M., Soja, A. J., Goulden, M. L., and Randerson, J. T.: Influence of tree species on continental differences in boreal fires and climate feedbacks, Nat. Geosci., 8, 228–234, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2352, 2015.

Rothermel, R. C.: A Mathematical Model for Predicting Fire Spread in Wildland Fuels USDA Forest Service Research Paper INT-115 (Ogden, UT: Department of Agriculture, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station), 1972.

Roy, D. P., Boschetti, L., Justice, C. O., and Ju, J.: The Collection 5 MODIS burned area product – global evaluation by comparison with the MODIS active fire product, Remote Sens. Environ., 112, 3690–3707, 2008.

Saatchi, S. S., Harris, N. L., Brown, S., Lefsky, M., Mitchard, E. T. A., Salas, W., Zutta, B. R., Buermann, W., Lewis, S. L., Hagen, S., Petrova, S., White, L., Silman, M., and Morel, A.: Benchmark map of forest carbon stocks in tropical regions across three continents, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 9899–9904, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1019576108, 2011.

Schmidt, G. A., Annan, J. D., Bartlein, P. J., Cook, B. I., Guilyardi, E., Hargreaves, J. C., Harrison, S. P., Kageyama, M., LeGrande, A. N., Konecky, B., Lovejoy, S., Mann, M. E., Masson-Delmotte, V., Risi, C., Thompson, D., Timmermann, A., Tremblay, L.-B., and Yiou, P.: Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5, Clim. Past, 10, 221–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, 2014.

Settele, J., Scholes, R., Betts, R., Bunn, S., Leadley, P., Nepstad, D., Overpeck, J. T., and Taboada, M. A.: Terrestrial and inland water systems, in: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V. R., Dokken, D. J., Mach, K. J., Mastrandrea, M. D., Bilir, T. E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K. L., Estrada, Y. O., Genova, R. C., Girma, B., Kissel, E. S., Levy, A. N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P. R., and White, L. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 271–359, 2014.

Sitch, S., Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W., Kaplan, J. O., Levis, S., Lucht, W., Sykes, M. T., Thonicke, K., and Venevsky, S.: Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model, Glob. Change Biol., 9, 161–185, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00569.x, 2003.

Sitch, S., Huntingford, C., Gedney, N., Levy, P. E., Lomas, M., Piao, S. L., Betts, R., Ciais, P., Cox, P., Friedlingstein, P., Jones, C. D., Prentice, I. C., and Woodward, F. I.: Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), Glob. Change Biol., 14, 2015–2039, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01626.x, 2008.

Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., and Sykes, M. T.: Representation of vegetation dynamics in the modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: Comparing two contrasting approaches within European climate space, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 10, 621–637, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1466-822X.2001.t01-1-00256.x, 2001.

Staver, A. C., Archibald, S., and Levin, S. A.: The global extent and determinants of savanna and forest as alternative biome states, Science, 334, 230–232, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1210465, 2011.

Tansey, K., Gregoire, J. M., Defourny, P., Leigh, R., Pekel, J. F. O., van Bogaert, E., and Bartholome, E.: A new, global, multi-annual (2000–2007) burnt area product at 1 km resolution, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L01401, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007gl031567, 2008.

Ten Hoeve, J. E., Jacobson, M. Z., and Remer, L. A.: Comparing results from a physical model with satellite and in situ observations to determine whether biomass burning aerosols over the Amazon brighten or burn off clouds, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D08203, 2012.

Thonicke, K., Venevsky, S., Sitch, S., and Cramer, W.: The role of fire disturbance for global vegetation dynamics: Coupling fire into a dynamic global vegetation model, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 10, 661–677, 2001.

Thonicke, K., Spessa, A., Prentice, I. C., Harrison, S. P., Dong, L., and Carmona-Moreno, C.: The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: results from a process-based model, Biogeosciences, 7, 1991–2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-1991-2010, 2010.

Tosca, M. G., Randerson, J. T., Zender, C. S., Flanner, M. G., and Rasch, P. J.: Do biomass burning aerosols intensify drought in equatorial Asia during El Niño?, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 3515–3528, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-3515-2010, 2010.

Tosca, M. G., Randerson, J. T., and Zender, C. S.: Global impact of smoke aerosols from landscape fires on climate and the Hadley circulation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5227–5241, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5227-2013, 2013.

Tosca, M., Diner, D., Garay, M., and Kalashnikova, O.: Observational evidence of fire-driven reduction of cloud fraction in tropical Africa, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 8418–8432, 2014.

van der Werf, G. R., Randerson, J. T., Collatz, G. J., Giglio, L., Kasibhatla, P. S., Arellano, A. F., Olsen, S. C., and Kasischke, E. S.: Continental-scale partitioning of fire emissions during the 1997 to 2001 El Niño/La Niña period, Science, 303, 73–76, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1090753, 2004.

van der Werf, G. R., Randerson, J. T., Giglio, L., Collatz, G. J., Mu, M., Kasibhatla, P. S., Morton, D. C., DeFries, R. S., Jin, Y., and van Leeuwen, T. T.: Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997–2009), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 11707–11735, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-11707-2010, 2010.

van Leeuwen, T. T., van der Werf, G. R., Hoffmann, A. A., Detmers, R. G., Rücker, G., French, N. H. F., Archibald, S., Carvalho Jr., J. A., Cook, G. D., de Groot, W. J., Hély, C., Kasischke, E. S., Kloster, S., McCarty, J. L., Pettinari, M. L., Savadogo, P., Alvarado, E. C., Boschetti, L., Manuri, S., Meyer, C. P., Siegert, F., Trollope, L. A., and Trollope, W. S. W.: Biomass burning fuel consumption rates: a field measurement database, Biogeosciences, 11, 7305–7329, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7305-2014, 2014.

van Wagner, C.: Prediction of crown fire behavior in two stands of jack pine, Can. J. Forest Res., 23, 442–449, 1993.

van Wagner, C. E.: A simple fire-growth model, The Forestry Chronicle, 45, 103–104, 1969.

Venevsky, S., Thonicke, K., Sitch, S., and Cramer, W.: Simulating fire regimes in human-dominated ecosystems: Iberian peninsula case study, Glob. Change Biol., 8, 984–998, 2002.

Voulgarakis, A. and Field, R. D.: Fire influences on atmospheric composition, air quality and climate, Current Pollution Reports, 1–12, 2015.

Wang, R., Balkanski, Y., Boucher, O., Ciais, P., Peñuelas, J., and Tao, S.: Significant contribution of combustion-related emissions to the atmospheric phosphorus budget, Nat. Geosci., 8, 48–54, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2324, 2015.

Wang, Z., Chappellaz, J., Park, K., and Mak, J. E.: Large variations in southern hemisphere biomass burning during the last 650 years, Science, 330, 1663–1666, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1197257, 2010.

Wang, Z., Chappellaz, J., Martinerie, P., Park, K., Petrenko, V., Witrant, E., Emmons, L. K., Blunier, T., Brenninkmeijer, C. A. M., and Mak, J. E.: The isotopic record of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric carbon monoxide since 1950: implications for the CO budget, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 4365–4377, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-4365-2012, 2012.

Ward, D. S., Kloster, S., Mahowald, N. M., Rogers, B. M., Randerson, J. T., and Hess, P. G.: The changing radiative forcing of fires: global model estimates for past, present and future, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 10857–10886, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-10857-2012, 2012.

Woodward, F. and Lomas, M.: Vegetation dynamics – simulating responses to climatic change, Biol. Rev., 79, 643–670, 2004.

Yang, J., Tian, H., Tao, B., Ren, W., Lu, C., Pan, S., Wang, Y., and Liu, Y.: Century-scale patterns and trends of global pyrogenic carbon emissions and fire influences on terrestrial carbon balance, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 29, GB005160, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gb005160, 2015.

Yue, C., Ciais, P., Cadule, P., Thonicke, K., Archibald, S., Poulter, B., Hao, W. M., Hantson, S., Mouillot, F., Friedlingstein, P., Maignan, F., and Viovy, N.: Modelling the role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance by incorporating SPITFIRE into the global vegetation model ORCHIDEE – Part 1: simulating historical global burned area and fire regimes, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2747–2767, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2747-2014, 2014.

Yue, C., Ciais, P., Zhu, D., Wang, T., Peng, S. S., and Piao, S. L.: How have past fire disturbances contributed to the current carbon balance of boreal ecosystems?, Biogeosciences, 13, 675–690, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-675-2016, 2016.

Zennaro, P., Kehrwald, N., McConnell, J. R., Schüpbach, S., Maselli, O. J., Marlon, J., Vallelonga, P., Leuenberger, D., Zangrando, R., Spolaor, A., Borrotti, M., Barbaro, E., Gambaro, A., and Barbante, C.: Fire in ice: two millennia of boreal forest fire history from the Greenland NEEM ice core, Clim. Past, 10, 1905–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1905-2014, 2014.

Zhang, Y., Fu, R., Yu, H., Qian, Y., Dickinson, R., Silva Dias, M. A. F., da Silva Dias, P. L., and Fernandes, K.: Impact of biomass burning aerosol on the monsoon circulation transition over Amazonia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L10814, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009gl037180, 2009.

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Biogeosciences

Tập 13 Số 11

3359-3375

Thông tin tác giả