The importance of biotic interactions for modelling species distributions under climate change

Global Ecology and Biogeography - Tập 16 Số 6 - Trang 743-753 - 2007
Miguel B. Araújo1, Miska Luoto2
1Department of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC, C/José Gutiérrez Abascal, 2, 28006 Madrid, Spain; and
2Thule Institute, University of Oulu, PO Box 7300, FIN‐90014 Oulu, Finland

Tóm tắt

ABSTRACT

Aim  There is a debate as to whether biotic interactions exert a dominant role in governing species distributions at macroecological scales. The prevailing idea is that climate is the key limiting factor; thus models that use present‐day climate–species range relationships are expected to provide reasonable means to quantify the impacts of climate change on species distributions. However, there is little empirical evidence that biotic interactions would not constrain species distributions at macroecological scales. We examine this idea, for the first time, and provide tests for two null hypotheses: (H0 1) – biotic interactions do not exert a significant role in explaining current distributions of a particular species of butterfly (clouded Apollo, Parnassius mnemosyne) in Europe; and (H0 2) – biotic interactions do not exert a significant role in predictions of altered species’ ranges under climate change.

Location  Europe.

Methods  Generalized additive modelling (GAM) was used to investigate relationships between species and climate; species and host plants; and species and climate + host plants. Because models are sensitive to the variable selection strategies utilised, four alternative approaches were used: AIC (Akaike's Information Criterion), BIC (Bayesian Information Criterion), BRUTO (Adaptive Backfitting), and CROSS (Cross Selection).

Results  In spite of the variation in the variables selected with different methods, both hypotheses (H0 1 and H0 2) were falsified, providing support for the proposition that biotic interactions significantly affect both the explanatory and predictive power of bioclimatic envelope models at macro scales.

Main conclusions  Our results contradict the widely held view that the effects of biotic interactions on individual species distributions are not discernible at macroecological scales. Results are contingent on the species, type of interaction and methods considered, but they call for more stringent evidence in support of the idea that purely climate‐based modelling would be sufficient to quantify the impacts of climate change on species distributions.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Akaike H.(1974)A new look at statistical model identification.IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control AU‐19 716–722.

10.1034/j.1600-0706.2002.t01-1-980116.x

10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01584.x

10.1016/j.tree.2006.09.010

10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01000.x

10.1111/j.1466-822X.2005.00182.x

10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01482.x

10.1111/j.1466-8238.2002.00304.x

10.1086/286103

Brown J.H., 1995, Macroecology

10.1111/j.1469-8137.1976.tb01532.x

10.1046/j.1365-2656.1998.00223.x

Dobzhansky T., 1950, Evolution in the tropics, American Scientist, 38, 209

10.1017/S0376892997000088

10.2307/3546417

10.1111/j.2006.0906-7590.04714.x

10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00792.x

10.1890/03-5344

Hastie T.J., 1990, Generalized additive models

10.1098/rspb.2005.3212

Heikkinen R.K., 2006, Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic modelling under climate change, Progress in Physical Geography, 30, 1

10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01116.x

10.1098/rspb.1999.0763

10.1046/j.1365-2656.1999.00372.x

10.1126/science.105.2727.367

Huntley B., 1997, Predicting the response of terrestrial biota to future environmental changes, 487

10.2307/3546645

Jalas J., 1972, Altas Florae Europaeae

10.1016/j.tree.2003.10.013

10.1111/j.1461-0248.2006.00977.x

10.1890/04-1563

Kudrna O., 1985, Butterflies of Europe

Lahti T., 1999, From dot maps to bitmaps – Atlas Florae Europaeae goes digital, Acta Botanica Fennica, 162, 5

10.1890/0012-9658(2001)082[2560:CIBTSI]2.0.CO;2

10.1023/A:1021394628607

10.1016/S0304-3800(02)00354-X

10.1111/j.0906-7590.2005.03957.x

10.1111/j.1600-0587.2001.tb00494.x

10.1111/j.1365-2699.2005.01395.x

MacArthur R.H., 1972, Geographical ecology: patterns in the distribution of species

10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01465.x

Mitchell T.D., 2004, A comprehensive set of high‐resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901–2000) and 16 scenarios (2001–2100)

10.1016/0304-3800(92)90003-W

Nakicenovic N., 2000, Emissions scenarios: a special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2217:RTCSTC>2.0.CO;2

Norusis M.J.(1999)SPSS base system + advanced statistics + user's guide.Version 10. SPSS Chicago.

10.1289/ehp.98106s61453

10.1038/21181

10.1046/j.1466-822X.2003.00042.x

10.1111/j.0906-7590.2004.03740.x

10.1046/j.0019-1019.2001.00031.x

10.2307/2845499

10.1126/science.1115233

Schwartz G., 1979, Estimating the dimension of a model, Annals of Statistics, 6, 461

10.1111/j.2517-6161.1977.tb01603.x

10.1046/j.0305-0270.2003.00991.x

10.1073/pnas.0409902102

10.1098/rsbl.2004.0236

10.1046/j.0305-0270.2003.01014.x

Whittaker R.H., 1975, Communities and ecosystems

10.1046/j.1365-2699.2001.00563.x

10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00824.x

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Global Ecology and Biogeography

Tập 16 Số 6

743-753

Thông tin tác giả