The global prevalence of dementia: A systematic review and metaanalysis
Tóm tắt
The evidence base on the prevalence of dementia is expanding rapidly, particularly in countries with low and middle incomes. A reappraisal of global prevalence and numbers is due, given the significant implications for social and public policy and planning.
In this study we provide a systematic review of the global literature on the prevalence of dementia (1980–2009) and metaanalysis to estimate the prevalence and numbers of those affected, aged ≥60 years in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions.
Age‐standardized prevalence for those aged ≥60 years varied in a narrow band, 5%–7% in most world regions, with a higher prevalence in Latin America (8.5%), and a distinctively lower prevalence in the four sub‐Saharan African regions (2%–4%). It was estimated that 35.6 million people lived with dementia worldwide in 2010, with numbers expected to almost double every 20 years, to 65.7 million in 2030 and 115.4 million in 2050. In 2010, 58% of all people with dementia lived in countries with low or middle incomes, with this proportion anticipated to rise to 63% in 2030 and 71% in 2050.
The detailed estimates in this study constitute the best current basis for policymaking, planning, and allocation of health and welfare resources in dementia care. The age‐specific prevalence of dementia varies little between world regions, and may converge further. Future projections of numbers of people with dementia may be modified substantially by preventive interventions (lowering incidence), improvements in treatment and care (prolonging survival), and disease‐modifying interventions (preventing or slowing progression). All countries need to commission nationally representative surveys that are repeated regularly to monitor trends.
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
2003, World Population Prospects: The 2002 revision—Highlights
Nitrini R, 2004, Incidence of dementia in a community‐dwelling Brazilian population, Alzheimer Dis Assoc Disord, 18, 241
Rosselli D, 2000, The Mini‐Mental State Examination as a selected diagnostic test for dementia: A Colombian population study. GENECO [in Spanish], Rev Neurol, 30, 428
Alzheimer's Disease International, 2009, World Alzheimer Report 2009
Custodio N, 2007, Prevalencia de demencia en una comunidad urbana de Lima: Un estudio puerta a puerta [abstract]
Llibre JJ, 2009, Prevalence of dementia and Alzheimer's disease in a Havana municipality: A community‐based study among elderly residents, MEDICC Rev, 11, 29
Wangtongkum S, 2008, Prevalence of dementia among population age over 45 years in Chiang Mai, Thailand, J Med Assoc Thai, 91, 1685
Bdzan LB, 2007, Prevalence of dementia in a rural population [in Polish], Psychiatr Pol, 41, 181
World Health Organization, 2012, Dementia: A public health priority
Canadian Study of Health and Ageing, 1994, Canadian study of health and aging: study methods and prevalence of dementia, CMAJ, 150, 899
Fratiglioni L, 2000, Incidence of dementia and major subtypes in Europe: A collaborative study of population‐based cohorts, Neurology, 54, S10
Deeg M, 2008, A comparison of cardiovascular disease risk factor biomarkers in African Americans and Yoruba Nigerians, Ethn Dis, 18, 427
Jotheeswaran AT, 2010, The predictive validity of the 10/66 dementia diagnosis in Chennai, India: A 3‐year follow‐up study of cases identified at baseline, Alzheimer Dis Assoc Disord, 24, 296, 10.1097/WAD.0b013e3181d5e540
Lobo A, 2000, Prevalence of dementia and major subtypes in Europe: A collaborative study of population‐based cohorts, Neurology, 54, S4
Reynish E, 2006, EUROCODE: Report of WP7 2006. Prevalence of Dementia in Europe, Alzheimer Europe
Ben‐Arie O, 1983, The coloured elderly in Cape Town—a psychosocial, psychiatric and medical community survey. Part II. Prevalence of psychiatric disorders, S Afr Med J, 64, 1056
Prince M, 2011, World Alzheimer Report 2011: The benefits of early diagnosis and intervention