The global prevalence of dementia: A systematic review and metaanalysis

Alzheimer's & Dementia - Tập 9 Số 1 - Trang 63 - 2013
Martin Prince1, Renata Bryce1, Emiliano Albanese1,2, Anders Wimo3,4, Wagner Silva Ribeiro5,1, Cleusa P. Ferri5,1
1Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, UK
2Laboratory of Epidemiology, Demography, and Biometry, National Institute of Aging National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
3Aging Research Center, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
4KI–Alzheimer Disease Research Centre, Karolinska Institutet Stockholm Sweden
5Department of Psychiatry, Federal University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Tóm tắt

Background

The evidence base on the prevalence of dementia is expanding rapidly, particularly in countries with low and middle incomes. A reappraisal of global prevalence and numbers is due, given the significant implications for social and public policy and planning.

Methods

In this study we provide a systematic review of the global literature on the prevalence of dementia (1980–2009) and metaanalysis to estimate the prevalence and numbers of those affected, aged ≥60 years in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions.

Results

Age‐standardized prevalence for those aged ≥60 years varied in a narrow band, 5%–7% in most world regions, with a higher prevalence in Latin America (8.5%), and a distinctively lower prevalence in the four sub‐Saharan African regions (2%–4%). It was estimated that 35.6 million people lived with dementia worldwide in 2010, with numbers expected to almost double every 20 years, to 65.7 million in 2030 and 115.4 million in 2050. In 2010, 58% of all people with dementia lived in countries with low or middle incomes, with this proportion anticipated to rise to 63% in 2030 and 71% in 2050.

Conclusion

The detailed estimates in this study constitute the best current basis for policymaking, planning, and allocation of health and welfare resources in dementia care. The age‐specific prevalence of dementia varies little between world regions, and may converge further. Future projections of numbers of people with dementia may be modified substantially by preventive interventions (lowering incidence), improvements in treatment and care (prolonging survival), and disease‐modifying interventions (preventing or slowing progression). All countries need to commission nationally representative surveys that are repeated regularly to monitor trends.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

10.1002/(SICI)1099-1166(200001)15:1<21::AID-GPS71>3.0.CO;2-5

10.1186/1471-2318-10-53

2003, World Population Prospects: The 2002 revision—Highlights

10.1016/S0140-6736(05)67889-0

10.1097/00002093-200204000-00007

Nitrini R, 2004, Incidence of dementia in a community‐dwelling Brazilian population, Alzheimer Dis Assoc Disord, 18, 241

Rosselli D, 2000, The Mini‐Mental State Examination as a selected diagnostic test for dementia: A Colombian population study. GENECO [in Spanish], Rev Neurol, 30, 428

10.1176/ajp.152.10.1485

10.1002/(SICI)1099-1166(200001)15:1<21::AID-GPS71>3.0.CO;2-5

10.1212/WNL.51.4.1000

Alzheimer's Disease International, 2009, World Alzheimer Report 2009

10.1016/S0140-6736(08)61002-8

10.1017/S1041610207005625

10.1159/000161053

Custodio N, 2007, Prevalencia de demencia en una comunidad urbana de Lima: Un estudio puerta a puerta [abstract]

Llibre JJ, 2009, Prevalence of dementia and Alzheimer's disease in a Havana municipality: A community‐based study among elderly residents, MEDICC Rev, 11, 29

10.1159/000109824

10.1159/000096131

10.1159/000160960

10.1192/bjp.186.2.136

Wangtongkum S, 2008, Prevalence of dementia among population age over 45 years in Chiang Mai, Thailand, J Med Assoc Thai, 91, 1685

10.1212/01.wnl.0000320508.11013.4f

10.1212/01.wnl.0000262028.16738.64

Bdzan LB, 2007, Prevalence of dementia in a rural population [in Polish], Psychiatr Pol, 41, 181

10.1177/1533317507310570

10.1093/ageing/afm128

10.1159/000026255

World Health Organization, 2012, Dementia: A public health priority

Canadian Study of Health and Ageing, 1994, Canadian study of health and aging: study methods and prevalence of dementia, CMAJ, 150, 899

10.1046/j.1468-1331.2001.00183.x

10.1159/000165362

10.1159/000017084

Fratiglioni L, 2000, Incidence of dementia and major subtypes in Europe: A collaborative study of population‐based cohorts, Neurology, 54, S10

10.1093/aje/154.7.642

10.1017/S1041610211002924

10.1001/jama.285.6.739

10.1212/WNL.57.6.985

10.1177/070674370404900203

Deeg M, 2008, A comparison of cardiovascular disease risk factor biomarkers in African Americans and Yoruba Nigerians, Ethn Dis, 18, 427

10.1016/S0140-6736(03)12772-9

10.1186/1471-2458-8-219

10.1056/NEJM199712043372306

Jotheeswaran AT, 2010, The predictive validity of the 10/66 dementia diagnosis in Chennai, India: A 3‐year follow‐up study of cases identified at baseline, Alzheimer Dis Assoc Disord, 24, 296, 10.1097/WAD.0b013e3181d5e540

10.1093/ije/20.3.736

Lobo A, 2000, Prevalence of dementia and major subtypes in Europe: A collaborative study of population‐based cohorts, Neurology, 54, S4

Reynish E, 2006, EUROCODE: Report of WP7 2006. Prevalence of Dementia in Europe, Alzheimer Europe

10.1159/000109998

Ben‐Arie O, 1983, The coloured elderly in Cape Town—a psychosocial, psychiatric and medical community survey. Part II. Prevalence of psychiatric disorders, S Afr Med J, 64, 1056

10.1159/000188661

10.1159/000320247

10.1159/000328255

10.1017/S1041610210001158

10.1192/bjp.174.2.95

10.1093/ije/dyg321

10.1002/ana.410300310

10.1097/JGP.0b013e3182051ab4

Prince M, 2011, World Alzheimer Report 2011: The benefits of early diagnosis and intervention

10.1016/j.jalz.2009.01.028

10.1016/j.jalz.2010.07.001

10.1002/gps.2191

10.1016/S1474-4422(11)70072-2

10.1001/archneurol.2011.100

10.1111/j.1532-5415.2009.02217.x

10.1016/S0140-6736(05)67342-4