The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society - Tập 137 Số 654 - Trang 1-28 - 2011
Gilbert P. Compo1,2, Jeffrey S. Whitaker1,3, Prashant D. Sardeshmukh1,2, N. Matsui1,2, Rob Allan4,5, X. Yin6, B. Gleason7,3, Russell S. Vose7,3, G. Rutledge7,3, P. Bessemoulin8, Stefan Brönnimann9,10, Manola Brunet11,12, R. Crouthamel13, Andrea Grant9, Pavel Groisman7,14, Phil Jones12, Michael C. Kruk6, Andries Kruger15, Gareth J. Marshall16, Maurizio Maugeri17, H. Y. Mok18, Øyvind Nordli19, T. Ross20,3, Ricardo M. Trigo21, X. L. Wang22, Scott D. Woodruff1,3, Steven J. Worley23
1NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, USA
2University of Colorado, CIRES, Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO, USA
3The contributions of these authors were prepared as part of their official duties as US Federal Government employees.
4ACRE Project, Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, UK
5The contribution of R. J. Allan was written in the course of his employment at the Met Office, UK, and is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.
6STG Inc., Asheville, NC, USA
7NOAA National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, USA
8MétéoFrance, Toulouse, France
9ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
10Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland
11Centre for Climate Change, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Spain
12Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
13International Environmental Data Rescue Organization, Deale, MD, USA
14University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
15South African Weather Service, Pretoria, South Africa
16British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
17Dipartimento di Fisica, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milano, Italy
18Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China
19Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
20NOAA Climate Database Modernization Program, NCDC, Asheville, NC, USA
21Centro de Geofísica da Universidade de Lisboa, IDL, University of Lisbon, Portugal
22Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
23National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA

Tóm tắt

AbstractThe Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) project is an international effort to produce a comprehensive global atmospheric circulation dataset spanning the twentieth century, assimilating only surface pressure reports and using observed monthly sea‐surface temperature and sea‐ice distributions as boundary conditions. It is chiefly motivated by a need to provide an observational dataset with quantified uncertainties for validations of climate model simulations of the twentieth century on all time‐scales, with emphasis on the statistics of daily weather. It uses an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method with background ‘first guess’ fields supplied by an ensemble of forecasts from a global numerical weather prediction model. This directly yields a global analysis every 6 hours as the most likely state of the atmosphere, and also an uncertainty estimate of that analysis.The 20CR dataset provides the first estimates of global tropospheric variability, and of the dataset's time‐varying quality, from 1871 to the present at 6‐hourly temporal and 2° spatial resolutions. Intercomparisons with independent radiosonde data indicate that the reanalyses are generally of high quality. The quality in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere throughout the century is similar to that of current three‐day operational NWP forecasts. Intercomparisons over the second half‐century of these surface‐based reanalyses with other reanalyses that also make use of upper‐air and satellite data are equally encouraging.It is anticipated that the 20CR dataset will be a valuable resource to the climate research community for both model validations and diagnostic studies. Some surprising results are already evident. For instance, the long‐term trends of indices representing the North Atlantic Oscillation, the tropical Pacific Walker Circulation, and the Pacific–North American pattern are weak or non‐existent over the full period of record. The long‐term trends of zonally averaged precipitation minus evaporation also differ in character from those in climate model simulations of the twentieth century. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright.

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Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Tập 137 Số 654

1-28

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