The Markov Process in Medical Prognosis

Medical Decision Making - Tập 3 Số 4 - Trang 419-458 - 1983
J. Robert Beck, Stephen G. Pauker

Tóm tắt

The physician's estimate of prognosis under alternative treatment plans is a principal factor in therapeutic decision making. Current methods of reporting prognosis, which include five-year survivals, survival curves, and quality-adjusted life expec tancy, are crude estimates of natural history. In this paper we describe a general- purpose model of medical prognosis based on the Markov process and show how this simple mathematical tool may be used to generate detailed and accurate assessments of life expectancy and health status. (Med Decis Making 3:419-458, 1983)

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Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Medical Decision Making

Tập 3 Số 4

419-458

Thông tin tác giả