Surprise

Arkes, 1981, Hindsight bias among physicians weighing the likelihood of diagnoses, J. Appl. Psychol., 66, 252, 10.1037/0021-9010.66.2.252 Baron, 2008 Bukszar, 1988, Hindsight bias and strategic choice: some problems in learning from experience, Acad. Manage. J., 31, 628, 10.2307/256462 Choi, 2000, Cultural psychology of surprise: holistic theories and recognition of contradiction, J. Pers. Soc. Psychol., 79, 890, 10.1037/0022-3514.79.6.890 Christensen-Szalanski, 1981, Physicians’ use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting, J. Exp. Psychol. Hum. Percept. Perform., 7, 928, 10.1037/0096-1523.7.4.928 Diener, 1999, National differences in subjective well-being, 434 Diener, 2000, Explaining differences in societal levels of happiness: Relative standards, need fulfillment, culture, and evaluation theory, Journal of Happiness Studies: An Interdisciplinary Periodical on Subjective Well-Being, 1, 41, 10.1023/A:1010076127199 Ekman, 1983, Autonomic nervous system activity distinguishes among emotions, Science, 221, 1208, 10.1126/science.6612338 Fischhoff, 1975, Hindsight is not equal to foresight: the effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty, J. Exp. Psychol. Hum. Percept. Perform., 1, 288, 10.1037/0096-1523.1.3.288 Fischhoff, 1986, Knowing with certainty: the appropriateness of extreme confidence, 397 Gendolla, 2001, Surprise and motivation of causal search: how are they affected by outcome valence and importance?, Motiv. Emot., 25, 327, 10.1023/A:1014867700547 Harinck, 2007, When gains loom larger than losses: reversed loss aversion for small amounts of money, Psychol. Sci., 18, 1099, 10.1111/j.1467-9280.2007.02031.x Heine, 1999, Is there a universal need for positive self-regard?, Psychol. Rev., 106, 766, 10.1037/0033-295X.106.4.766 Hong, 1988, Sex, locus of control, and illusion of control in Hong Kong as correlates of gambling involvement, J. Soc. Psychol., 128, 667, 10.1080/00224545.1988.9922920 Jagacinski, 1977, Application of signal detection theory to perceptual motor skills: decision processes in basketball shooting, J. Mot. Behav., 9, 225, 10.1080/00222895.1977.10735113 Kahneman, 1979, Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk, Econometrica, 47, 263, 10.2307/1914185 Kahneman, 1990, Experimental tests of the endowment effect and the Coase theorem, J. Polit. Econ., 98, 1325, 10.1086/261737 Kahneman, 1991, Anomalies: the endowment effect, loss aversion, and the status quo bias, J. Econ. Perspect., 5, 193, 10.1257/jep.5.1.193 Kermer, 2006, Loss aversion is an affective forecasting error, Psychol. Sci., 17, 649, 10.1111/j.1467-9280.2006.01760.x Kitayama, 2000, The pursuit of happiness and the realization of sympathy: cultural patterns of self, social relations, and well-being, 113 Leary, 1982, Hindsight distortion and the 1980 Presidential election, Pers. Soc. Psychol. Bull., 8, 257, 10.1177/0146167282082012 Liberman, 2005, Predicting the intensity of losses vs. non-gains and non-losses vs. gains in judging fairness and value: a test of the loss aversion explanation, J. Exp. Soc. Psychol., 41, 527, 10.1016/j.jesp.2004.06.007 Lichtenstein, 1982, Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980, 306 Lorini, 2007, The cognitive structure of surprise: looking for basic principles, TOPOI, 26, 133, 10.1007/s11245-006-9000-x Maguire, 2011, Making sense of surprise: an investigation of the factors influencing surprise judgments, J. Exp. Psychol. Learn. Mem. Cogn., 37, 176, 10.1037/a0021609 McGraw, 2004, The affective costs of overconfidence, J. Behav. Decis. Mak., 17, 281, 10.1002/bdm.472 McGraw, 2010, Comparing gains and losses, Psychol. Sci., 21, 1438, 10.1177/0956797610381504 Mellers, 2000, Choice and the relative pleasure of consequences, Psychol. Bull., 126, 910, 10.1037/0033-2909.126.6.910 Mellers, 2012 Mellers, 2010, How beliefs influence the relative magnitude of pleasure and pain, J. Behav. Decis. Mak., 23, 369 Mellers, 1997, Decision affect theory: emotional reactions to the outcomes of risky options, Psychol. Sci., 8, 423, 10.1111/j.1467-9280.1997.tb00455.x Mellers, 1999, Emotion-based choice, J. Exp. Psychol. Gen., 128, 332, 10.1037/0096-3445.128.3.332 Meyer, 1991, An experimental analysis of surprise, Cogn. Emot., 5, 295, 10.1080/02699939108411042 Nisbett, 2001, Culture and systems of thought: holistic vs. analytic cognition, Psychol. Rev., 108, 291, 10.1037/0033-295X.108.2.291 Oliver, 1997, Customer delight: foundations, findings, and managerial insight, J. Retail., 73, 311, 10.1016/S0022-4359(97)90021-X Oskamp, 1965 Peng, 1999, Culture, dialectics, and reasoning about contradiction, Am. Psychol., 54, 741, 10.1037/0003-066X.54.9.741 Petty, 2001, Individual versus group interest violation: surprise as a determinant of argument scrutiny and persuasion, Soc. Cogn., 19, 418, 10.1521/soco.19.4.418.20758 Phillips, 1977, Cultural differences in viewing uncertainty and assigning probabilities, 507 Rescorla, 1988, Pavlovian conditioning: it's not what you think it is, Am. Psychol., 43, 151, 10.1037/0003-066X.43.3.151 Ronis, 1987, Components of probability judgment accuracy: individual consistency and effects of subject matter and assessment method, Organ. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process., 40, 193, 10.1016/0749-5978(87)90012-4 Rozin, 2001, Negativity bias, negativity dominance, and contagion, Pers. Soc. Psychol. Rev., 5, 296, 10.1207/S15327957PSPR0504_2 Schultz, 1992, Neuronal activity in monkey ventral striatum related to the expectation of reward, J. Neurosci., 12, 4594, 10.1523/JNEUROSCI.12-12-04595.1992 Schultz, 1993, Responses of monkey dopamine neurons to reward and conditioned stimuli during successive steps of learning a delayed response task, J. Neurosci., 13, 900, 10.1523/JNEUROSCI.13-03-00900.1993 Schultz, 1997, A neural substrate of prediction and reward, Science, 275, 193, 10.1126/science.275.5306.1593 Synodinos, 1986, Hindsight distortion: “I knew it all along and I was sure about it”, J. Appl. Soc. Psychol., 16, 107, 10.1111/j.1559-1816.1986.tb02282.x Tsai, 2006, Cultural variation in affect valuation, J. Pers. Soc. Psychol., 90, 288, 10.1037/0022-3514.90.2.288 Valenzuela, 2010, Pleasurable surprises: a cross-cultural study of consumer responses to unexpected incentives, J. Consum. Res., 36, 792, 10.1086/605592 Windschitl, 1999, The interpretation of “likely” depends on context, but “70%” is 70%, right? The influence of associative processes on perceived certainty, J. Exp. Psychol. Learn. Mem. Cogn., 25, 1514, 10.1037/0278-7393.25.6.1514 Yates, 1990