Superspreading events in the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2: Opportunities for interventions and control

PLoS Biology - Tập 18 Số 11 - Trang e3000897
Benjamin M. Althouse1,2,3, Edward A. Wenger1, Joel C. Miller4, Samuel V. Scarpino5,6,7,8,9,10, Antoine Allard11,12, Laurent Hébert‐Dufresne13,12,14, Hao Hu15
1Institute for Disease Modeling, Bellevue, Washington, United States of America
2New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico, United States of America
3University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
4School of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences, La Trobe University, Bundoora, Victoria, Australia
5Department of Health Sciences, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
6Department of Marine & Environmental Sciences, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
7Department of Physics, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
8ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy
9Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
10Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, United States of America
11Centre interdisciplinaire en modélisation mathématique, Université Laval, Québec (Québec), Canada
12Département de Physique, de Génie Physique et d’Optique, Université Laval, Québec, Québec, Canada
13Department of Computer Science, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont, United States of America
14Vermont Complex Systems Center, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont, United States of America
15Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington, United States of America

Tóm tắt

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the etiological agent of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) disease, has moved rapidly around the globe, infecting millions and killing hundreds of thousands. The basic reproduction number, which has been widely used—appropriately and less appropriately—to characterize the transmissibility of the virus, hides the fact that transmission is stochastic, often dominated by a small number of individuals, and heavily influenced by superspreading events (SSEs). The distinct transmission features of SARS-CoV-2, e.g., high stochasticity under low prevalence (as compared to other pathogens, such as influenza), and the central role played by SSEs on transmission dynamics cannot be overlooked. Many explosive SSEs have occurred in indoor settings, stoking the pandemic and shaping its spread, such as long-term care facilities, prisons, meat-packing plants, produce processing facilities, fish factories, cruise ships, family gatherings, parties, and nightclubs. These SSEs demonstrate the urgent need to understand routes of transmission, while posing an opportunity to effectively contain outbreaks with targeted interventions to eliminate SSEs. Here, we describe the different types of SSEs, how they influence transmission, empirical evidence for their role in the COVID-19 pandemic, and give recommendations for control of SARS-CoV-2.

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PLoS Biology

Tập 18 Số 11

e3000897

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