Statistical ecology comes of age

Biology Letters - Tập 10 Số 12 - Trang 20140698 - 2014
Olivier Giménez1, S. T. Buckland2, Byron J. T. Morgan3, Nicolas Bez4, Sophie Bertrand4, Rémi Choquet1, Stéphane Dray5, Pierre Vallois6, Rachel M. Fewster7, Frédéric Gosselin8, Bastien Mérigot9, Pascal Monestiez10, Juan M. Morales11, Frédéric Mortier12, François Munoz13, Otso Ovaskainen14, Sandrine Pavoine15,16, Roger Pradel1, Frank M. Schurr17, Len Thomas2, Wilfried Thuiller18, Verena M. Trenkel19, Perry de Valpine20, Eric A. Rexstad2
1CEFE UMR 5175, CNRS, Université de Montpellier, Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier, EPHE, 1919 route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier Cedex 5, France
2Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, University of St Andrews, St Andrews KY16 9LZ, UK
3School of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent CT2 7NF, UK
4IRD, UMR EME 212, Sète, France
5Université de Lyon, F-69000, Lyon; Université Lyon 1; CNRS, UMR5558, Laboratoire de 18 Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, F-69622, Villeurbanne, France
6AgroParisTech, UMR MIA 518, Paris, France
7Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand
8Irstea, UR EFNO, Centre de Nogent-sur-Vernisson, 45290 Nogent-sur-Vernisson, France
9Université Montpellier 2, UMR EME 212, Sète, France
10INRA, BioSP, Avignon, France
11Laboratorio Ecotono, CRUB, INIBIOMA-CONICET, Bariloche, Argentina
12UPR Bsef, CIRAD, Montpellier, France
13UM2, UMR AMAP, Bd de la Lironde, TA A-51 / PS2, 34398 Montpellier cedex 5, France
14Department of Biosciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
15Mathematical Ecology Research Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3PS, UK
16UMR 7204 CNRS UPMC, Centre for Ecology and Conservation Sciences, Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, 55-61 rue Buffon, 75005 Paris, France
17Institute of Landscape and Plant Ecology, University of Hohenheim, 70593 Stuttgart, Germany
18Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, UMR CNRS 5553, Université Joseph Fourier, Grenoble I, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France
19Ifremer, rue de l’île d’Yeu, BP 21105, 44311 Nantes cedex 3, France
20Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA

Tóm tắt

The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1–4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data.

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Biology Letters

Tập 10 Số 12

20140698

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