Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?

Journal of Finance - Tập 58 Số 4 - Trang 1393-1413 - 2003
Wayne E. Ferson1,2,3,4,5,6,7, Sergei Sarkissian1,2,3,4,5,6,7, Timothy T. Simin1,2,3,4,5,6,7
1Boston College
2Carroll School of Management Boston College 140 Commonwealth Ave Chestnut Hill, MA. 02467 and NBER
3Department of Finance Smeal College of Business Pennsylvania State University University Park, PA. 16802-3006
4Faculty of Management 1001 Sherbrooke Street West
5McGill University Montreal, PQ, Canada H3A 1G5
6NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138
7University of Washington

Tóm tắt

ABSTRACTEven though stock returns are not highly autocorrelated, there is a spurious regression bias in predictive regressions for stock returns related to the classic studies of Yule (1926) and Granger and Newbold (1974). Data mining for predictor variables interacts with spurious regression bias. The two effects reinforce each other, because more highly persistent series are more likely to be found significant in the search for predictor variables. Our simulations suggest that many of the regressions in the literature, based on individual predictor variables, may be spurious.

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