Scoring-rule feedback and the overconfidence syndrome in subjective probability forecasting

Brown, 1973, Quantifying uncertainty into numerical probabilities for the reporting of intelligence, RAND Report R-1185-ARPA DeGroot, 1970 Einhorn, 1978, Confidence in judgment: Persistence of the illusion of validity, Psychological Review, 85, 395, 10.1037/0033-295X.85.5.395 Ferrel, 1980, A model of calibration for subjective probabilities, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 26, 32, 10.1016/0030-5073(80)90045-8 de Finetti, 1937, Foresight: Its logical laws, its subjective sources, Annales de l'Institute Henri Poincare, 7 1964 Goldberg, 1970, Man vs. model of man: A rationale, plus some evidence, for a method of improving on clinical inferences, Psychological Bulletin, 73, 422, 10.1037/h0029230 Kahneman, 1979, Intuitive predictions: Biases and corrective procedures, TIMS Studies in Management Science, 12, 313 Lichtenstein, 1980, Training for calibration, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 26, 149, 10.1016/0030-5073(80)90052-5 Lichtenstein, 1977, Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art Luce, 1957 Murphy, 1970, Scoring rules in probability assessment and evaluation, Acta Psychologica, 34, 273, 10.1016/0001-6918(70)90023-5 Phillips, 1966, Conservatism in a simple probability inference task, Journal of Experimental Psychology, 72, 346, 10.1037/h0023653 Raiffa, 1968 Ramsey, 1931 Savage, 1954 Schum, 1967, Subjective probability revisions under cost-payoff arrangements, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 2, 84, 10.1016/0030-5073(67)90012-8 Seaver, 1978, Eliciting subjective probability distributions on continuous variables, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 21, 379, 10.1016/0030-5073(78)90061-2 Slovic, 1971, Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 6, 649, 10.1016/0030-5073(71)90033-X Stael von Holstein, 1971, An experiment in probabilistic weather forecasting, Journal of Applied Meteorology, 10, 635, 10.1175/1520-0450(1971)010<0635:AEIPWF>2.0.CO;2 Stael von Holstein, 1972, Probabilistic forecasting: An experiment related to the stock market, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 8, 139, 10.1016/0030-5073(72)90041-4 Tversky, 1974, Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, Science, 185, 1124, 10.1126/science.185.4157.1124 von Neumann, 1944 von Neumann, 1947 von Neumann, 1953 Alpert, 1969 von Winterfeldt, 1973, Flat maxima in linear optimization models, 10.1037/e406952004-001