Scan‐4‐Light: a Searchlight function horizon scanning and trend monitoring project

Emerald - Tập 14 Số 6 - Trang 489-510 - 2012
OzcanSaritas1, IanMiles1
1Based at Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK, and at the Higher School of Economics, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia

Tóm tắt

PurposeThe current paper aims to present the Scan‐4‐Light study, which was conducted for the systematic scanning and analysis of the Searchlight newsletters as a rapidly growing collection of articles on trends and topics in development and poverty.Design/methodology/approachBuilt upon the concept of the systemic foresight methodology, the Scan‐4‐Light approach involves the integrated use of horizon scanning, network analysis and evolutionary scenarios combined with expert consultations and workshops. The study identified the emerging trends, issues, weak signals and wild cards; created high‐value visualisations to emphasize the results and findings; and produced narratives to increase the impact and awareness of the development issues.FindingsThe Scan‐4‐Light project has resulted in a large number of specific outputs, providing the views of the Searchlight newsletters' contents at various levels of granularity. It has set out to show how the tools used here can be applied to illustrate the relationships among issues, and how these vary across countries and regions over time, and are linked to various stakeholders and possible solutions to problems.Research limitations/implicationsScan‐4‐Light demonstrates how foresight tools and techniques can be used for the analysis of complex and uncertain issues, such as development and poverty, in a systemic way.Practical implicationsThe Scan‐4‐Light approach can be applied in a number of areas for scanning and identifying emerging trends and issues, and understanding the relationships between systems and solutions.Social implicationsThe paper gives evidence that most of the issues, if not all, related to development are not isolated, but interlinked and interconnected. They require more holistic understanding and intervention with an effective collaboration between stakeholders.Originality/valueA demonstration of a novel scanning approach is presented in the paper.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Borgatti, S.P., Everett, M.G. and Freeman, L.C. (2002), Ucinet VI for Windows: Software for Social Network Analysis, Analytic Technologies, Harvard, MA.

Ena, O., Mikova, N., Saritas, O. and Sokolova, A. (2012), “A technology trend monitoring methodology: the case of semantic technologies”, Technovation, submitted for publication.

Freeman, L.C. (1979), “Centrality in social networks I: conceptual clarification”, Social Networks, Vol. 1, pp. 215‐39.

Intellecap (2010), “Development initiative – rainwater harvesting”, Searchlight South Asia – Monthly Newsletter on Trends in Pro‐poor Urban Development in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan, Intellecap, New Delhi.

Miles, I. and Saritas, O. (2012), “The depth of the horizon: searching, scanning and widening horizons”, Foresight, Vol. 14 No. 6, pp. 530‐45.

Millennium Project (2008), Millennium Project 2008 State of the Future, Millennium Project, Washington, DC.

Millennium Project (2012), available at: www.millennium‐project.org/millennium/challeng.html.

Nugroho, Y. and Saritas, O. (2009), “Incorporating network perspectives in foresight: a methodological proposal”, Foresight, Vol. 11 No. 6, pp. 530‐45.

Saritas, O. (2006), “Systems thinking for foresight”, PhD thesis, Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, The University of Manchester, Manchester.

Saritas, O. (2012), “Systemic foresight methodology”, in Gokhberg, L., Meissner, D. and Sokolov, A. (Eds), Designing and Implementing Future Oriented STI Policy – Potentials and Limits of Foresight Studies, Springer, Berlin.

Saritas, O. and Miles, I. (2012), Scan‐4‐Light: A Horizon Scanning/Trend Monitoring Project for the Rockefeller Foundation, Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, Manchester.

Saritas, O. and Nugroho, Y. (2012), “Mapping issues and envisaging futures: an evolutionary scenario approach”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 79, pp. 509‐29.

Saritas, O. and Smith, J. (2011), “The big picture – trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals”, Futures, Vol. 43, pp. 292‐312.

Saritas, O., Pace, L.M. and Stalpers, S. (2010), “Stakeholder participation and dialogue in foresight”, in Borch, K. and Koutsopoulos, K. (Eds), Exploring the Future: The Role of Interaction in Foresight, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, pp. 38‐71.

Batagelj, V. and Mrvar, A. (2003), “How to analyze large networks with Pajek”, paper presented at a workshop at SUNBELT XXIII, Cancun.

Nooy, W.D., Mrvar, A. and Batagelj, V. (2004), Exploratory Social Network Analysis with Pajek, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Emerald

Tập 14 Số 6

489-510

Thông tin tác giả