Tổng quan về bộ lọc Kalman theo kiểu tổ hợp cho việc đồng hóa dữ liệu khí quyển
Tóm tắt
Bài báo này tổng hợp sự phát triển của bộ lọc Kalman theo kiểu tổ hợp (EnKF) cho việc đồng hóa dữ liệu khí quyển. Chúng tôi đặc biệt chú ý đến những tiến bộ gần đây và những thách thức hiện tại. Các tính chất đặc trưng của ba biến thể đã được thiết lập tốt của thuật toán EnKF sẽ được thảo luận đầu tiên. Với kích thước hạn chế của tổ hợp và sự tồn tại không thể tránh khỏi của các lỗi có nguồn gốc không rõ (tức là lỗi hệ thống), đã có nhiều phương pháp được đề xuất để định vị ảnh hưởng của các quan sát và để tính đến những lỗi này. Tuy nhiên, vẫn còn những thách thức; ví dụ, về việc định vị các hiện tượng đa quy mô (cả về thời gian và không gian). Đối với EnKF nói chung, nhưng đặc biệt là các ứng dụng độ phân giải cao, mong muốn sử dụng một khoảng thời gian đồng hóa ngắn. Điều này thúc đẩy việc tập trung vào các phương pháp duy trì cân bằng trong suốt quá trình cập nhật EnKF. Bài báo cũng thảo luận về các hệ thống EnKF khu vực hạn chế, đặc biệt là liên quan đến việc đồng hóa dữ liệu radar và các ứng dụng theo dõi bão mạnh và xoáy thuận nhiệt đới. Dường như ít sự chú ý hơn đã được dành cho việc tối ưu hóa quá trình đồng hóa các quan sát bức xạ vệ tinh của EnKF, mà khối lượng ngày càng tăng của nó đã đóng vai trò quan trọng trong việc cải thiện dự đoán thời tiết toàn cầu. Cũng có một xu hướng tại nhiều trung tâm nghiên cứu và thực hiện các hệ thống hỗn hợp để tận dụng cả hai phương pháp đồng hóa dữ liệu theo kiểu tổ hợp và biến thể; điều này đặt ra thêm nhiều thách thức và không rõ cách nó sẽ phát triển. Kết luận rằng, mặc dù có hơn 10 năm kinh nghiệm vận hành, vẫn còn nhiều vấn đề chưa giải quyết mà có thể được hưởng lợi từ nghiên cứu sâu hơn.
Nội dung
Mô tả chung...4491 Bộ lọc ngẫu nhiên và xác định...4492 Bộ lọc ngẫu nhiên...4492 Bộ lọc xác định...4492 Bộ lọc tuần tự hoặc địa phương...4493 Các bộ lọc Kalman theo kiểu tổ hợp tuần tự...4493 Bộ lọc Kalman biến đổi nhóm địa phương...4494 Vector trạng thái mở rộng...4494 Các vấn đề đối với sự phát triển của các thuật toán...4495 Phương pháp Monte Carlo...4495 Xác thực độ tin cậy...4497 Sử dụng các bộ lọc nhóm không có sự đồng huyết...4498 Lỗi mẫu do kích thước tổ hợp hạn chế: Vấn đề hạng...4498 Định vị hiệp phương sai...4499 Định vị trong bộ lọc tuần tự...4499 Định vị trong LETKF...4499 Các vấn đề với định vị...4500 Tóm tắt...4501 Thổi phồng hiệp phương sai...4501 Thổi phồng cộng...4501 Thổi phồng nhân...4502 Thư giãn thông tin tổ hợp trước...4502 Các vấn đề với việc thổi phồng...4503 Phát tán và cắt ngắn...4503 Lỗi trong các tham số hóa vật lý...4504 Rối loạn xu hướng vật lý...4504 Các phương pháp đa mô hình, đa vật lý và đa tham số...4505 Hướng đi tương lai...4505 Tính hợp lý của các nguồn lỗi...4506 Nhu cầu về các phương pháp cân bằng...4506 Các phương pháp lọc theo thời gian...4506 Về các khoảng thời gian đồng hóa ngắn hơn...4507 Giảm bớt các nguồn mất cân bằng...4507 Các điều kiện biên và tính nhất quán giữa nhiều miền...4509 Khởi tạo tổ hợp bắt đầu...4510 Các bước tiền xử lý cho các quan sát radar...4510 Sử dụng các quan sát radar cho các phân tích quy mô đối lưu...4511 Sử dụng các quan sát radar cho các phân tích xoáy thuận nhiệt đới...4511 Các vấn đề khác liên quan đến đồng hóa dữ liệu LAM...4511 Định vị hiệp phương sai...4512 Độ dày dữ liệu...4513 Quy trình sửa lỗi thiên lệch...4513 Tác động của việc lặp lại hiệp phương sai...4514 Các giả định về lỗi quan sát...4514 Khuyến nghị liên quan đến các quan sát vệ tinh...4515 Các tham số ảnh hưởng đến chất lượng...4515 Tổng quan về các thuật toán song song hiện tại...4516 Tiến trình phát triển kiến trúc máy tính...4516 Các vấn đề thực tiễn...4517 Tiến gần đến khu vực xám...4518 Tóm tắt...4518 Hiệp phương sai lỗi nền hỗn hợp...4519 E4DVar với biến kiểm soát Không sử dụng các mô hình tuyến tính hóa với 4DEnVar...4520 Thuật toán tăng trưởng hỗn hợp...4521 Các vấn đề và khuyến nghị mở...4521 Bộ lọc ngẫu nhiên hay xác định...4522 Bản chất của lỗi hệ thống...4522 Đi xa hơn những quy mô đồng bộ...4522 Các quan sát từ vệ tinh...4523 Các hệ thống hỗn hợp...4523 Tương lai của EnKF...4523
Phân kỳ bộ lọc cổ điển...4524 Phân kỳ bộ lọc thảm họa...4524
Từ khóa
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