Representing large-scale land acquisitions in land use change scenarios for the Lao PDR

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Tập 18 - Trang 1857-1869 - 2018
Niels Debonne1, Jasper van Vliet1, Andreas Heinimann2, Peter Verburg1,3
1Department of Environmental Geography, Institute for Environmental Studies, Faculty of Science, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
2Centre for Development and Environment (CDE) and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
3Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland

Tóm tắt

Agricultural large-scale land acquisition (LSLA) is a process that is currently not captured by land change models. We present a novel land change modeling approach that includes processes governing LSLAs and simulates their interactions with other land systems. LSLAs differ from other land change processes in two ways: (1) their changes affect hundreds to thousands of contiguous hectares at a time, far surpassing other land change processes, e.g., smallholder agriculture, and (2) as policy makers value LSLA as desirable or undesirable, their agency significantly affects LSLA occurrence. To represent these characteristics in a land change model, we allocate LSLAs as multi-cell patches to represent them at scale while preserving detail in the representation of other dynamics. Moreover, LSLA land systems are characterized to respond to an explicit political demand for LSLA effects, in addition to a demand for various agricultural commodities. The model is applied to simulate land change in Laos until 2030, using three contrasting scenarios: (1) a target to quadruple the area of LSLA, (2) a moratorium for new LSLA, and (3) no target for LSLA. Scenarios yield drastically different land change trajectories despite having similar demands for agricultural commodities. A high level of LSLA impedes smallholders’ engagement with rubber or cash crops, while a moratorium on LSLA results in increased smallholder involvement in cash cropping and rubber production. This model goes beyond existing land change models by capturing the heterogeneity of scales of land change processes and the competition between different land users instigated by LSLA.

Tài liệu tham khảo

Anseeuw W, Lay J, Messerli P, Meserli P, Giger M, Taylor M (2013) Creating a public tool to assess and promote transparency in global land deals: the experience of the Land Matrix. J Peasant Stud 40:521–530. https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2013.803071 Arezki R, Deininger K, Selod H (2011) What drives the global “land rush”?. IMF Working Paper, Washington D.C. Baglioni E, Gibbon P (2013) Land Grabbing, Large- and Small-scale Farming: what can evidence and policy from 20th century Africa contribute to the debate? Third World Q 34:1558–1581. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2013.843838 Baird I, Fox J (2015) How land concessions affect places elsewhere: telecoupling, political ecology, and large-scale plantations in Southern Laos and Northeastern Cambodia. Land 4:436–453. https://doi.org/10.3390/land4020436 Bissonnette JF, De Koninck R (2015) Large plantations versus smallholdings in Southeast Asia: historical and contemporary trends. Land Grabbing: perspectives from East and Southeast Asia https://www.iss.nl/research/research_programmes/political_economy_of_resources_environment_and_population_per/networks/mosaic/workshops_colloquia_conferences/land_grabbing_perspectives_from_east_and_southeast_asia/. Accessed 18 August 2017 Bissonnette JF, De Koninck R (2017) The return of the plantations? Historical and contemporary trends in the relation between plantations and smallholdings in Southeast Asia. J Peasant Stud 44:918–938. https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2017.1311867 Borras SM, Franco JC (2012) Global land grabbing and trajectories of agrarian change: a preliminary analysis. J Agrar Chang 12:34–59. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1471-0366.2011.00339.x Byerlee D (2014) The fall and rise again of plantations in tropical Asia: history repeated? Land 3:574–597. https://doi.org/10.3390/land3030574 Cotula L (2012) The international political economy of the global land rush: a critical appraisal of trends, scale, geography and drivers. J Peasant Stud 39:649–680. https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2012.674940 Cotula L, Oya C, Codjoe EA, Eid A, Kakraba-Ampeh M, Keeley J, Kidewa AL, Makwarimba M, Seide WM, Nasha WO, Asare RO, Rizzo M (2014) Testing claims about large land deals in Africa: findings from a multi-country study. J Dev Stud 50:903–925. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2014.901501 Cramb RA, Pierce Colfer CJ, Dressler W, Laungaramsri P, Le QT, Mulyoutami E, Peluso NL, Wadley RL (2009) Swidden transformations and rural livelihoods in Southeast Asia. Hum Ecol 37:323–346. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-009-9241-6 Cramb R, Manivong V, Newby J, Sothorn K, Sujang P (2015) Alternatives to land grabbing: smallholder engagement in commodity booms in Southeast Asia. Land Grabbing: perspectives from East and Southeast Asia. https://www.iss.nl/research/research_programmes/political_economy_of_resources_environment_and_population_per/networks/mosaic/workshops_colloquia_conferences/land_grabbing_perspectives_from_east_and_southeast_asia/. Accessed 18 Aug 2017 Cramb R, Manivong V, Newby JC, Sothorn K, Sibat PS (2016) Alternatives to land grabbing: exploring conditions for smallholder inclusion in agricultural commodity chains in Southeast Asia. J Peasant Stud 44:813–841. https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2016.1242482 Davis KF, Yu K, Rulli MC, Pichdara L, D’Odorico P (2015) Accelerated deforestation driven by large-scale land acquisitions in Cambodia. Nat Geosci 8:772–775. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2540 De Schutter O (2011) How not to think of land-grabbing: three critiques of large-scale investments in farmland. J Peasant Stud 38:249–279. https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2011.559008 Deininger K, Byerlee D, Lindsay J, Norton A, Selod H, Stickler M (2011) Rising Global Interest in Farmland, can it yield sustainable and equitable benefits? 1st edn. The World Bank, Washington D.C. Deininger K, Byerlee D (2012) The rise of large farms in land abundant countries: do they have a future? World Dev 40:701–714. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.04.030 Ducourtieux O, Visonnavong P, Rossard J (2006) Introducing cash crops in shifting cultivation regions—the experience with cardamom in Laos. Agrofor Syst 66:65–76. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10457-005-6645-1 Epprecht M, Minot N, Dewina R, Messerli P, Heinimann A (2008) The geography of poverty and inequality in the Lao PDR, 1st edn. Geographica Bernensia, Bern FAO (2017a) Laos at a glance. In: FAO Laos. http://www.fao.org/laos/fao-in-laos/laos-at-a-glance/en/.Accessed 13 Jun 2017 FAO (2017b) FAOSTAT. In: FAOSTAT Food Agric. data. http://www.fao.org/faostat. Accessed 6 Oct 2016 Fox J, Castella J (2013) Expansion of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) in Mainland Southeast Asia: what are the prospects for smallholders? J Peasant Stud 40:155–170. https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2012.750605 Friis C, Reenberg A, Heinimann A, Schönweger O (2016) Changing local land systems: implications of a Chinese rubber plantation in Nambak District, Lao PDR. Singap J Trop Geogr 37:25–42. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjtg.12137 Hall D (2011) Land grabs, land control, and Southeast Asian crop booms. J Peasant Stud 38:837–857. https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2011.607706 Hall R, Edelman M, Borras SM, Scoones I, White B, Wolford W (2015) Resistance, acquiescence or incorporation? An introduction to land grabbing and political reactions “from below”. J Peasant Stud 42:467–488. https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2015.1036746 Hall R, Scoones I, Tsikata D (2017) Plantations, outgrowers and commercial farming in Africa: agricultural commercialisation and implications for agrarian change. J Peasant Stud 44:515–537. https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2016.1263187 Heinimann A, Hett C, Hurni K, Messerli P, Epprecht M, Jorgensen L, Breu T (2013) Socio-economic perspectives on shifting cultivation landscapes in Northern Laos. Hum Ecol 41:51–62. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-013-9564-1 Hett C, Nanhthavong V, Saphangthon T, Robles GR, Phouangphet K, Speller W, Messerli P, Epprecht M, Heinimann A (2015) Land deals in Laos: first insights from a new nationwide initiative to assess the quality of investments. Land Grabbing: perspectives from East and Southeast Asia. https://www.iss.nl/research/research_programmes/political_economy_of_resources_environment_and_population_per/networks/mosaic/workshops_colloquia_conferences/land_grabbing_perspectives_from_east_and_southeast_asia/. Accessed 18 Aug 2017 International Land Coalition (ILC), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD), Centre for Development and Environment (CDE), German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA), Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) (2018) Land Matrix Global Observatory. www.landmatrix.org. Accessed 3 Mar 2017 Land Observatory Project (2017) Land Observatory. www.landobservatory.org. Accessed 6 Mar 2016 Lavers T (2012) “Land grab” as development strategy? The political economy of agricultural investment in Ethiopia. J Peasant Stud 39:105–132. https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2011.652091 Lestrelin G, Castella J-C, Bourgoin J (2012) Territorialising sustainable development: the politics of land-use planning in Laos. J Contemp Asia 42:581–602. https://doi.org/10.1080/00472336.2012.706745 Lestrelin G, Castella J, Fox JM (2013) Forest transitions in Southeast Asia: synergies and shortcomings in land-change science and political ecology. In: Braanstrom C, Vadjunec J (eds) Land change science, political ecology, and sustainability: synergies and divergences. Earthscan, London, pp 85–108 Li TM (2011) Centering labor in the land grab debate. J Peasant Stud 38:281–298. https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2011.559009 Liao C, Jung S, Brown DG, Agrawal A (2016) Insuffient research on land grabbing. Science 353:131–132. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf6565 Lu J (2015) Tapping into the rubber market: opium replacement and the role of rubber in developing Laos. Land Grabbing: perspectives from East and Southeast Asia. https://www.iss.nl/research/research_programmes/political_economy_of_resources_environment_and_population_per/networks/mosaic/workshops_colloquia_conferences/land_grabbing_perspectives_from_east_and_southeast_asia/. Accessed 18 Aug 2017 Manivong V, Cramb RA (2008) Economics of smallholder rubber expansion in Northern Laos. Agrofor Syst 74:113–125. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10457-008-9136-3 Mazoyer M, Roudart L (2006) A history of world agriculture, from the neolithic age to the current crisis. Earthscan, London Mertz O, Padoch C, Fox J, Cramb RA, Leisz SJ, Lam NT, Vien TD (2009) Swidden change in Southeast Asia: understanding causes and consequences. Hum Ecol 37:259–264. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-009-9245-2 Messerli P, Heinimann A, Giger M, Brue T, Schönweger O (2013) From “land grabbing” to sustainable investments in land: potential contributions by land change science. Curr Opin Environ Sustain 5:528–534. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2013.03.004 Messerli P, Giger M, Dwyer MB, Brue T, Eckert S (2014) The geography of large-scale land acquisitions: analysing socio-ecological patterns of target contexts in the global South. Appl Geogr 53:449–459. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2014.07.005 Müller D, Sun Z, Vongvisouk T, Pflugmacher D, Xu J, Mertz O (2014) Regime shifts limit the predictability of land-system change. Glob Environ Chang 28:75–83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.003 Nolte K, Chamberlain W, Giger M (2016) International land deals for agriculture fresh insights from the Land Matrix: Analytical Report II, 1st edn. Land Matrix Project, Bern Oberlack C, Tejada L, Messerli P, Rist S, Giger M (2016) Sustainable livelihoods in the global land rush? Archetypes of livelihood vulnerability and sustainability potentials. Glob Environ Chang 41:153–171. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.001 Ornetsmüller C, Verburg PH, Heinimann A (2016) Scenarios of land system change in the Lao PDR: transitions in response to alternative demands on goods and services provided by the land. Appl Geogr 75:1–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2016.07.010 Ornetsmüller C, Heinimann A, Verburg PH (2018) Operationalizing a land systems classification for Laos. Landsc Urban Plan 169:229–240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2017.09.018 Oya C (2013) The land rush and classic agrarian questions of capital and labour: a systematic scoping review of the socioeconomic impact of land grabs in Africa. Third World Q 34(9):1532–1557 Peeters A (2015) Disclosing recent territory-lift and rural development contributions of Cambodian large-scale land acquisitions. Land Grabbing: perspectives from East and Southeast Asia. https://www.iss.nl/research/research_programmes/political_economy_of_resources_environment_and_population_per/networks/mosaic/workshops_colloquia_conferences/land_grabbing_perspectives_from_east_and_southeast_asia/. Accessed 18 Aug 2017 Schmidt-Vogt D, Leisz SJ, Mertz O, Heinimann A, Thiha T, Messerli P, Epprecht M, Cu PV, Chi VK, Hardiono M, Dao TM (2009) An assessment of trends in the extent of swidden in southeast asia. Hum Ecol 37:269–280. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-009-9239-0 Schönweger O, Messerli P (2015) Land acquisition, investment, and development in the Lao coffee sector: successes and failures. Crit Asian Stud 47:94–122. https://doi.org/10.1080/14672715.2015.997095 Schönweger O, Ullenberg A (2009) Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Land in the Lao PDR, 1st edn. Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ), Eschborn Schönweger O, Heinimann A, Epprecht M (2012) Concessions and leases in the Lao PDR: taking stock of land investments, 1st edn. Geographica Bernensia, Vientiane Shi W (2006) Rubber boom in Luang Namtha: a transnational perspective. In: Clayton D (ed) Rural development in mountainous areas of Northern Lao PDR, 1st edn. Deutsche Gesellschaft für Techniche Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH, Vientiane, pp 1–75 Thanichanon P (2015) Effects of market integration on land use and welfare in Xayaburi, Lao PDR. Dissertation, University of Bern Turner BL, Lambin EF, Reenberg A (2007) The emergence of land change science for global environmental change and sustainability. Proc Natl Acad Sci 104:20666–20671 United Nations (2014) World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision USAID (2013) Property rights and resource governance Lao People’s Democratic Republic. USAID. https://www.land-links.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/USAID_Land_Tenure_Laos_Profile.pdf. Accessed 19 Feb 2018 van Asselen S, Verburg PH (2012) A land system representation for global assessments and land-use modeling. Glob Chang Biol 18:3125–3148. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02759.x van Asselen S, Verburg PH (2013) Land cover change or land-use intensification: simulating land system change with a global-scale land change model. Glob Chang Biol 19:3648–3667. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12331 van Delden H, van Vliet J, Rutledge DT, Kirkby MJ (2011) Comparison of scale and scaling issues in integrated land-use models for policy support. Agric Ecosyst Environ 142:18–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2011.03.005 Van Dessel W, Van Rompaey A, Szilassi P (2011) Sensitivity analysis of logistic regression parameterization for land use and land cover probability estimation. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 25:489–508. https://doi.org/10.1080/13658810903194256 van Vliet N, Mertz O, Heinimann A, Langanke T, Pascual U, Schmook B, Adams C, Schmidt-Vogt D, Messerli P, Leisz S, Castella JC, Jorgensen L, Birch-Thomsen T, Hett C, Bech-Bruun T, Ickowitz A, Vu KC, Yasuyuki K, Fox J, Padoch C, Dressler W, Ziegler AD (2012) Trends, drivers and impacts of changes in swidden cultivation in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers: a global assessment. Glob Environ Chang 22:418–429. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.009 van Vliet J, Bregt AK, Brown DG, van Delden H, Heckbert S, Verburg PH (2016) A review of current calibration and validation practices in land-change modeling. Environ Model Softw 82:174–182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.04.017 Verburg PH, Erb K-H, Mertz O, Espindola G (2013) Land system science: between global challenges and local realities. Curr Opin Environ Sustain 5:433–437. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2013.08.001 Vongvisouk T, Mertz O, Thongmanivong S, Heinimann A, Phanvilay K (2014) Shifting cultivation stability and change: contrasting pathways of land use and livelihood change in Laos. Appl Geogr 46:1–10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2013.10.006 World Bank (2017) Lao PDR Country Overview. http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/lao/overview. Accessed 13 Jun 2017