RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions
Tóm tắt
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Amann M, Bertok I, Borken J, Chambers A, Cofala J, Dentener F, Heyes C, Kejun J, Klimont K, Makowski M, Matur R, Purohit P, Rafaj P, Sandler R, Schöpp W, Wagner F, Winiwarter W (2008a) GAINS-Asia. A tool to combat air pollution and climate change simultaneously. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg
Amann M, Kejun J, Jiming H, Wang S, Wei W, Jia X, Chuying Z, Bertok I, Borken J, Cofala J, Heyes C, Hoglund L, Klimont Z, Purohit P, Rafaj P, Schöpp W, Toth G, Wagner F, Winiwarter W (2008b) GAINS-Asia. Scenarios for cost-effective control of air pollution and greenhouse gases in China. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg
BGR (2009) Energy Resources 2009: Reserves, Resources, Availability. Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR), Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, Hannover, Germany, ISBN 978-3-9813373-9-6
BP (2010) BP Statistical Review of World Energy, www.bp.com/statisticalreview . Accessed in May 2011
Cofala J, Amann M, Klimont Z, Kupiainen K, Höglund-Isaksson L (2007) Scenarios of global anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants and methane until 2030. Atmos Environ 41:8486–8499. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.07.010
Dasgupta S, Laplante B, Mamingi N (2001) Pollution and capital markets in developing countries. J Environ Econ Manag 42(3):310–35
EDC (2000) Global land cover charateristics database version.2.0. EROS Data Centre
Eyring V, Köhler HW, van Aardenne J, Lauer A (2005a) Emissions from international shipping: 1. The last 50 years. J Geophys Res 110:D17305
Eyring V, Köhler HW, Lauer A, Lemper B (2005b) Emissions from international shipping: 2, Impact of future technologies on scenarios until 2050. J Geophys Res 110:D17306
FAO (2001) Global forest resources assessment 2000. Forestry Paper No. 140. Rome, Italy, Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations
Fischer G (2009) How do climate change and bioenergy alter the long-term outlook for food, agriculture and resource availability? Expert Meeting on How to feed the World in 2050 (Rome, 24–26 June 2009). FAO. <Available at: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/012/ak972e/ak972e00.pdf >
Fischer G, van Velthuizen H, Shah M, Nachtergaele FO (2002) Global agro-ecological assessment for agriculture in the 21st century: Methodology and results. IIASA RR-02-02, IIASA. Laxenburg, Austria
Fischer G, Shah M, Tubiello FN, van Velhuizen H (2005) Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990–2080. Phil Trans Royal Soc B. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2005.1744
Fischer G, Tubiello FN, van Velthuizen H, Wiberg DA (2007) Climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements: effects of mitigation. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 74(7):1083–1107
Fischer G, Hizsnyik E, Prieler S, Shah M, van Velthuizen H, (2009) Biofuels and food security. OFID/IIASA, Vienna/Laxenburg. <Available at: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/luc07/Homepage-News-Highlights/Biofuels%20Report%20Final.pdf , accessed in Mai 2010>
Fisher B, Nakicenovic N, Alfsen K, Corfee Morlot J, De la Chesnaye F, Hourcade J.-C, Jiang K, Kainuma M, La Rovere E, Matysek A, Rana A, Riahi K, Richels R, Rose S, van Vuuren DP, Warren R, (2007) Chapter 3: Issues related to mitigation in the long-term context. In: Climate change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
GLCCD (2001) Global land cover characteristics database. Version 2.0. available online at: http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/glcc/glcc.html
Granier C, Besssagnet B, Bond T, D’Angiola A, van der Gon HG et al (2011) Evolution of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions at global and regional scales during the 1980–2010 period. Climatic Change (this SI)
Grubler A, O’Neill B, Riahi K, Chirkov V, Goujon A, Kolp P, Prommer I, Scherbov S, Slentoe E (2007) Regional, national, and spatially explicit scenarios of demographic and economic change based on SRES. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 74:980–1029
Hurtt GC, Chini LP, Frolking S, Betts R, Feddema J et al (2011) Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands. Climatic Change (this SI)
IFPRI (2002) Global agricultural extent v 2.0. Reinterpretation of Global Land Cover characteristics database (GLCCD v. 2.0). Available online at: http://www.asb.cgiar.org/BNPP/phase2/bnpp . Phase 2 datasets. Global agricultural extent. EROS data center (EDC), 2000. Washington DC, International Food Policy Research Institute
IPCC (2008) Towards new scenarios for analysis of emissions, climate change, impacts, and response strategies. IPCC Expert Meeting Report on New Scenarios, Noordwijkerhout, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
JRC (2006). Global 2000 Land Cover (GLC2000). Accessed December 2009, from http://bioval.jrc.ec.europa.eu/products/glc2000/glc2000.php
Lamarque J-F, Meinshausen M, Riahi K, Smith SJ, van Vuuren DVF (2011) Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways. Climatic Change (this SI)
Lee DS, Owen B, Graham A, Fichter C, Lim LL, Dimitriu D (2005) Allocation of international aviation emissions from scheduled air traffic—present day and historical. Report to UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, London
Masui T, Matsumoto K, Hijioka Y, Kinoshita T, Nozawa T, Ishiwatari S, Kato E, Shukla PR, Yamagata Y, Kainuma M (2011) A emission pathway to stabilize at 6 W/m2 of radiative forcing. Climatic Change. This Issue. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0150-5
Messner S, Strubegger M (1995) User’s guide for MESSAGE III. WP-95-96, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA, Manning MR, Rose SK et al (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747–756
Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, de Vries B, Fenhann J, Gaffin S, Gregory K, Grübler A, Jung TY, Kram T, La Rovere EL, Michaelis L, Mori S, Morita T, Pepper W, Pitcher H, Price L, Riahi K, Roehrl A, Rogner H-H, Sankovski A, Schlesinger M, Shukla P, Smith S, Swart R, van Rooijen S, Victor N, Dadi Z (2000) IPCC special report on emissions scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 599
Nakicenovic N, Kolp P, Riahi K, Kainuma M, Hanaoka T (2006) Assessment of emissions scenarios revisited. Environ Econ Pol Stud 7:137–173
EPA (Environmental Planning Agency) (2008) Air quality trends by City, 1990–2008, ( http://www.epa.gov/airtrends/factbook.html - accessed July 19, 2010)
Rafaj P, Rao S, Klimont Z, Kolp P, Schöpp W (2010) Emissions of air pollutants implied by global long-term energy scenarios, IIASA Interim Report, IR-10-019. IIASA, Laxenburg, 32
Rao S, Riahi K (2006) The role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases in climate change mitigation: long-term scenarios for the 21st century. Energy J Spec Issue 3:177–200
Rao S, Riahi K, Stehfest E, van Vuuren D, Cheolhung C, den Elzen M, Isaac M, van Vliet J (2008) IMAGE and MESSAGE scenarios limiting GHG concentration to low levels. IIASA Interim Report IR-08-020, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, pp 63
Riahi K, Gruebler A, Nakicenovic N (2007) Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 74(7):887–935
Rogner H-H (1997) An assessment of world hydrocarbon resources. Annu Rev Energ Environ 22(1):217–262
Rokityanskiy D, Benitez P, Kraxner F, McCallum I, Obersteiner M, Rametsteiner E, Yamagata Y (2007) Geographically explicit global modeling of land-use change, carbon sequestration, and biomass supply. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 74(7):1057–1082
Siebert S, Döll P, Feick S, Hoogeveen J, Frenken K (2007) Global map of irrigation areas version 4.0.1., Frankfurt am Main, Germany; Rome, Italy, Johann Wolfgang Goethe University/Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Thomson AM, Calvin KV, Smith SJ, Kyle GP, Volke A, Patel P, Delgado-Arias S, Bond-Lamberty B, Wise MA, Clarke LE et al (2011) RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100. Climatic Change. This Issue. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4
Tubiello FN, Fischer G (2007) Reducing climate change impacts on agriculture: global and regional effects of mitigation, 2000–2080. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 74(7):1030–1056, Special Issue: Greenhouse Gases - Integrated Assessment
UNEP and WHO (1996) City air quality trends (GEMS/Air Data). Nairobi United Nations Environment Programme, World Health Organization 1:52
Van Vuuren DP, Riahi K (2011). The relationship between short-term emissions and long-term concentration targets—a letter. Climatic Change, 104(3–4):793–801
Van Vuuren DP, Smith SJ, Riahi K (2010) Downscaling socioeconomic and emissions scenarios for global environmental change research: a review. Wiley Interdiscipl Rev Climate Change 1(3):393–404. doi: 10.1002/wcc.50 , Wiley & Sons
Van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard K, Hurtt GC, Kram T, Krey V, Lamarque J-F, Matsui T, Meinshausen M, Nakicenovic N, Smith SJ, Rose SK (2011a) Representative concentration pathways: An overview. Climatic Change (this SI). doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z
Van Vuuren DP, Stehfest E, Den Elzen MGJ, Deetman S, Hof A, Isaac M, Klein Goldewijk K, Kram T, Mendoza Beltran A, Oostenrijk R et al (2011b) RCP2.6: Exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature change below 2°C. Climatic Change. (This Issue). doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0152-3
WEC (2007) 2007 Survey of Energy Resources, World Energy Council, London W1B 5LT, United Kingdom, ISBN: 0 946121 26 5
World Energy Assessment (WEA) (2000) Holdren JP, and K Smith et al., Energy, the Environment, and Health ( http://www.undp.org/energy/activities/wea/drafts-frame.html )