Projections of regional changes in forest net primary productivity for different tree species in Europe driven by climate change and carbon dioxide
Tóm tắt
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Ainsworth EA, Long SP (2005) What have we learned from 15 years of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta-analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy properties and plant production to rising CO2. New Phytol 165:351–371
Ammer C, Albrecht L, Borchert H, Brosinger F, Dittmar C, Elling W, Ewald J, Felbermeier B, von Gilsa H, Huss J, Kenk G, Kölling C, Kohnle U, Meyer P, Mosandl R, Moosmayer H, Palmer S, Reif A, Rehfuess K, Stimm B (2005) Zur Zukunft der Buche (Fagus sylvatica L.) in Mitteleuropa. Allg Forst- und Jagdztg 176:60–67
Bellassen V, Viovy N, Luyssaert S, Le Maire G, Schelhaas M-J, Ciais P (2011) Reconstruction and attribution of the carbon sink of European forests between 1950 and 2000. Glob Chang Biol 17:3274–3292. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02476.x
BGR (2004) Nutzungsdifferenzierte Bodenübersichtskarte der Bundesrepublik Deutschland 1:100.000.000 (Wald-BÜK 1000). Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, Hannover
Boisvenue C, Running SW (2006) Impacts of climate change on natural forest productivity— evidence since the middle of the 20th century. Glob Chang Biol 12:862–882
Bontemps JD, Hervé JC, Duplat P, Dhôte JF (2012) Shifts in the height-related competitiveness of tree species following recent climate warming and implications for tree community composition: the case of common beech and sessile oak as predominant broadleaved species in Europe. Oikos 121:1287–1299
Bugmann H, Bigler C (2011) Will the CO2 fertilization effect in forests be offset by reduced tree longevity? Oecologia 165:533–544. doi:10.1007/s00442-010-1837-4
Bugmann H, Grote R, Lasch P, Lindner M, Suckow F (1997) A new forest gap model to study the effects of environmental change on forest structure and functioning. In: Mohren GMJ, Kramer K, Sabate S (eds) Impacts of Global Change of Tree Physiology and Forest Ecosystem. Proceedings of the International Conference on Impacts of Global Change on Tree Physiology and Forest Ecosystems, held 26–29 November 1996, Wageningen. Forestry Science. Kluwer Academic Publisher, Dordrecht, pp 255–261
Bugmann H, Palahi M, Bontemps JD, Tomé M (2010) Trends in modeling to address forest management and environmental challenges in Europe. For. Sys. 19(SI):3–7
Buisson L, Thuiller W, Casajus N, Lek S, Grenouillet G (2010) Uncertainty in ensemble forecasting of species distribution. Glob Chang Biol 16:1145–1157
Chmura DJ, Anderson PD, Howe GT, Harrington CA, Halofsky JE, Peterson DL, Shaw DC, Brad St.Clair J (2011) Forest responses to climate change in the northwestern United States: ecophysiological foundations for adaptive management. For Ecol Manage 261:1121–1142
Churkina G, Trusilova K, Vetter M, Dentener F (2007) Contributions of nitrogen deposition and forest regrowth to terrestrial carbon uptake. Carbon Balance Manag 2:5
Déqué M, Rowell D, Lüthi D, Giorgi F, Christensen J, Rockel B, Jacob D, Kjellström E, de Castro M, van den Hurk B (2007) An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections. Clim Chang 81:53–70
de Vries W, Gert Jan R, Per G, Hubert S (2006) The impact of nitrogen deposition on carbon sequestration in European forests and forest soils. Glob Change Biol 12:1151–1173
de Vries W, Vel E, Reinds GJ, Deelstra H, Klap JM, Leeters EEJM, Hendriks CMA, Kerkvoorden M, Landmann G, Herkendell J, Haussmann T, Erisman JW (2003) Intensive monitoring of forest ecosystems in Europe: 1. Objectives, set-up and evaluation strategy. For Ecol Manag 174:77–95
Deutsch C, Journel A (1992) GSLIB: Geostatistical Software Library and User’s Guide. Oxford University Press, New York
Di Filippo A, Biondi F, Maugeri M, Schirone B, Piovesan G (2012) Bioclimate and growth history affect beech lifespan in the Italian Alps and Apennines. Glob Chang Biol 18:960–972. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02617.x
Eggers J, Lindner M, Zudin S, Zaehle S, Lisk J (2008) Impact of changing wood demand, climate and land use on European forest resources and carbon stocks during the 21st century. Glob Chang Biol 14:2288–2303. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01653.x
ESBN, EC (2004) European Soil Database (v 2.0). European Soil Bureau Network and the European Commission, EUR 19945 EN, March 2004
Fontes L, Bontemps JD, Bugmann H, van Oijen M, Gracia CA, Kramer K, Lindner M, Rötzer T, Skovsgaard JP (2010) Models supporting forest management in a changing environment. For. Sys. 19(SI):8–29
Fuchs T (2008) GPCC Annual report for year 2008. Development of the GPCC data base and analysis products. GPCC, Offenbach, Germany
Galiano L, Martínez-Vilalta J, Lloret F (2010) Drought-induced multifactor decline of Scots pine in the pyrenees and potential vegetation change by the expansion of co-occurring oak species. Ecosyst 13:978–991. doi:10.1007/s10021-010-9368-8
Geßler A, Keitel C, Kreuzwieser J, Matyssek R, Seiler W, Rennenberg H (2007) Potential risks for European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in a changing climate. Trees - Struct. and. Funct 21:1–11
Haxeltine A, Prentice IC (1996) A general model for the light-use efficiency of primary production. Funct Ecol 10:551–561
Hollweg H-D, Böhm B, Fast I, Hennemuth B, Keuler K, Keup-Thiel E, Lautenschlager M, Legutke S, Radtke K, Rockel B, Schubert M, Will A, Woldt M, Wunram C (2008) Ensemble Simulations over Europe with the Regional Climate Model CLM forced with IPCC AR4 Global Scenarios. Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Huang J, Bergeron Y, Denneler B, Berninger F, Tardif J (2007) Response of forest trees to increased atmospheric CO2. Crit Rev Plant Sci 26:265–283
Hyvönen R, Ågren GI, Linder S, Persson T, Cotrufo MF, Ekblad A, Freeman M, Grelle A, Janssens IA, Jarvis PG, Kellomäki S, Lindroth A, Loustau D, Lundmark T, Norby RJ, Oren R, Pilegaard K, Ryan MG, Sigurdsson BD, Strömgren M, Van Oijen M, Wallin G (2007) The likely impact of elevated [CO2], nitrogen deposition, increased temperature and management on carbon sequestration in temperate and boreal forest ecosystems: a literature review. New Phytol 173:463–480
Jump AS, Hunt JM, Penuelas J (2006) Rapid climate change-related growth decline at the southern range edge of Fagus sylvatica. Glob Chang Biol 12:2163–2174
Kahle H-P, Karjalainen T, Schuck A, Agren GI, Kellomäki S, Mellert K, Prietzel J, Rehfuess K-E, Spiecker H (eds) (2008) Causes and consequences of forest growth trends in Europe. Brill, Leiden
Kauppi PE, Mielikainen K, Kuusela K (1992) Biomass and carbon budget of European forests, 1971 to 1990. Sci 256:70–74
Keenan T, Maria Serra J, Lloret F, Ninyerola M, Sabate S (2011) Predicting the future of forests in the Mediterranean under climate change, with niche- and process-based models: CO2 matters! Glob Chang Biol 17:565–579. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02254.x
Kellomäki S, Leinonen SE (2005) Management of European Forests under Changing Climatic Conditions. Final Report of the Project “Silvicultural Response Strategies to Climatic Change in Management of European Forests” funded by the European Union under the Contract EVK2-2000-00723 (SilviStrat). Research Notes. University of Joensuu, Faculty of Forestry, Joensuu
Kint V, Aertsen W, Campioli M, Vansteenkiste D, Delcloo A, Muys B (2012) Radial growth change of temperate tree species in response to altered regional climate and air quality in the period 1901–2008. Clim Change 115:343–363
Kölling C, Knoke T, Schall P, Ammer C (2009) Überlegungen zum Risiko des Fichtenanbaus in Deutschland vor dem Hintergrund des Klimawandels. Forstarch 80:42–54
Körner C (2006) Plant CO2 responses: an issue of definition, time and resource supply. New Phytol 172:393–411
Körner C, Asshoff R, Bignucolo O, Hattenschwiler S, Keel SG, Pelaez-Riedl S, Pepin S, Siegwolf RTW, Zotz G (2005) Carbon flux and growth in mature deciduous forest trees exposed to elevated CO2. Sci 309:1360–1362. doi:10.1126/science.1113977
Landsberg J (2003) Modelling forest ecosystems: state of the art, challenges, and future directions. Can J For Res 33:385–397
Lasch P, Badeck FW, Suckow F, Lindner M, Mohr P (2005) Model-based analysis of management alternatives at stand and regional level in Brandenburg (Germany). For Ecol Manage 207:59–74
Lautenschläger M, Keuler K, Wunram C, Keup-Thiel E, Schubert M, Will A, Rockel B, Boehm U (2009a) Climate Simulation with CLM, Climate of the 20th Century run no.1, Data Stream 3: European region MPI-M/MaD. World Data Center for Climate. doi:10.1594/WDCC/CLM_C20_1_D3
Lautenschläger M, Keuler K, Wunram C, Keup-Thiel E, Schubert M, Will A, Rockel B, Boehm U (2009b) Climate Simulation with CLM, Climate of the 20th Century run no.2, Data Stream 3: European region MPI-M/MaD. World Data Center for Climate. doi:10.1594/WDCC/CLM_C20_2_D3
Lautenschläger M, Keuler K, Wunram C, Keup-Thiel E, Schubert M, Will A, Rockel B, Boehm U (2009c) Climate Simulation with CLM, Scenario A1B run no.1, Data Stream 3: European region MPI-M/MaD. World Data Center for Climate. doi:10.1594/WDCC/CLM_A1B_1_D3
Lautenschläger M, Keuler K, Wunram C, Keup-Thiel E, Schubert M, Will A, Rockel B, Boehm U (2009d) Climate Simulation with CLM, Scenario A1B run no.2, Data Stream 3: European region MPI-M/MaD. World Data Center for Climate. doi:10.1594/WDCC/CLM_A1B_2_D3
Lautenschläger M, Keuler K, Wunram C, Keup-Thiel E, Schubert M, Will A, Rockel B, Boehm U (2009e) Climate simulation with CLM, Scenario B1 run no.1, Data Stream 3: European region MPI-M/MaD. World Data Center for Climate. doi:10.1594/WDCC/CLM_B1_1_D3
Lautenschläger M, Keuler K, Wunram C, Keup-Thiel E, Schubert M, Will A, Rockel B, Boehm U (2009f) Climate Simulation with CLM, Scenario B1 run no.2, Data Stream 3: European region MPI-M/MaD. World Data Center for Climate. doi:10.1594/WDCC/CLM_B1_2_D3
Lukac M, Calfapietra C, Lagomarsino A, Loreto F (2010) Global climate change and tree nutrition: effects of elevated CO2 and temperature. Tree Physiol 30:1209–1220. doi:10.1093/treephys/tpq040
Medlyn BE, Duursma RA, Zeppel MJB (2011) Forest productivity under climate change: a checklist for evaluating model studies. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Chang 2:332–355
Metzger MJ, Bunce RGH, Jongman RHG, Mücher CA, Watkins JW (2005) A climatic stratification of the environment of Europe. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 14:549–563. doi:10.1111/j.1466-822X.2005.00190.x
Milne R, Van Oijen M (2005) A comparison of two modelling studies of environmental effects on forest carbon stocks across Europe. Ann of For Sci 62:911–923. doi:10.1051/forest:2005082
Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int J Climatol 25:693–712. doi:10.1002/joc.1181
Morales P, Hickler T, Rowell DP, Smith B, Sykes MT (2007) Changes in European ecosystem productivity and carbon balance driven by regional climate model output. Glob Chang Biol 13:108–122. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01289.x
Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA, Manning MR, Rose SK, van Vuuren DP, Carter TR, Emori S, Kainuma M, Kram T, Meehl GA, Mitchell JFB, Nakicenovic N, Riahi K, Smith SJ, Stouffer RJ, Thomson AM, Weyant JP, Wilbanks TJ (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nat 463:747–756
Myneni RB, Keeling CD, Tucker CJ, Asrar G, Nemani R (1997) Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991. Nat 386:698–702
Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, Bd V, Fenhann J, Gaffin S, Gregory K, Grübler A, Jung T, Kram T, Rovere EL, Michaelis L, Mori S, Morita T, Pepper W, Pitcher H, Price L, Riahi K, Roehrl A, Rogner H, Sankovski A, Schlesinger M, Shukla P, Smith S, Swart R, Sv R, Victor N, Dadi Z (2000) IPCC special report emission scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Nemani RR, Keeling CD, Hashimoto H, Jolly WM, Piper SC, Tucker CJ, Myneni RB, Running SW (2003) Climate-driven increases in global terrestrial net primary production from 1982 to 1999. Sci 300:1560–1563. doi:10.1126/science.1082750
New M, Hulme M, Jones P (2000) Representing Twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Part II: development of 1901–96 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climate. J of Clim 13:2217–2238. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)0132217:RTCSTC>2.0.CO;2
New M, Hulme M, Jones PD (1999) Representing twentieth century space-time climate variability. Part 1: development of a 1961–90 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. J of Clim 12:829–856
Norby RJ, Warren JM, Iversen CM, Medlyn BE, McMurtrie RE (2010) CO2 enhancement of forest productivity constrained by limited nitrogen availability. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107:19368–19373. doi:10.1073/pnas.1006463107
Österle H, Gerstengarbe F-W, Werner PC (2003) Homogenisierung und Aktualisierung des Klimadatensatzes der Climate Research Unit der University of East Anglia, Norwich. Terra Nostra 6:326–329
Peñuelas J, Canadell JG, Ogaya R (2011) Increased water-use efficiency during the 20th century did not translate into enhanced tree growth. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 20:597–608
Pinkard EA, Battaglia M, Bruce J, Leriche A, Kriticos DJ (2010) Process-based modelling of the severity and impact of foliar pest attack on eucalypt plantation productivity under current and future climates. For Ecol Manag 259:839–847
Piovesan G, Biondi F, Filippo AD, Alessandrini A, Maugeri M (2008) Drought-driven growth reduction in old beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forests of the central Apennines, Italy. Glob Chang Biol 14:1265–1281
Reay DS, Dentener F, Smith P, Grace J, Feely RA (2008) Global nitrogen deposition and carbon sinks. Nat Geosci 1:430–437
Rebetez M, Dobbertin M (2004) Climate change may already threaten Scots pine stands in the Swiss Alps. Theor Appl Climatol 79:1–9. doi:10.1007/s00704-004-0058-3
Reich PB, Oleksyn J (2008) Climate warming will reduce growth and survival of Scots pine except in the far north. Ecol Lett 11:588–597. doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01172.x
Reyer C, Lasch P, Mohren GMJ, Sterck FJ (2010) Inter-specific competition in mixed forests of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and common beech (Fagus sylvatica) under climate change—a model-based analysis. Ann of For Sci 67:805
Reyer C, Gutsch M, Lasch P (2012) Simulated forest productivity and biomass changes under global change in Europe. In: Pötzelsberger E, Mäkelä A, Mohren GMJ, Palahí M, Tomé M, Hasenauer H (eds) Modelling Forest Ecosystems - Concepts, Data and Application. Proceedings of the COST FP0603 Spring School, held in Kaprun, Austria, May 9th-13th, 2011. Institute of Silviculture, BOKU, Vienna. ISBN: 978-3-900962-98-2, pp 151–158
Rudolf B, Becker A, Schneider U, Meyer-Christoffer A, Ziese M (2010) GPCC Status Report,Global Precipitation Climatology Centre. Offenbach, Germany
Rudolf B, Scheider U (2005) Calculation of gridded precipitation data fort he global land-surface using in-situ gauge observations. Proc. 2nd Workshop Int. Prec. Work. Gp.
Scheider U, Fuchs T, Meyer-Christoffer A, Rudolf B (2008) Global precipitation analysis products of the GPCC. Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, Offenbach, Germany
Seidl R, Fernandes PM, Fonseca TF, Gillet F, Jönsson AM, Merganicová K, Netherer S, Arpaci A, Bontemps J-D, Bugmann H, González-Olabarria JR, Lasch P, Meredieu C, Moreira F, Schelhaas M-J, Mohren F (2011) Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review. Ecol Model 222:903–924
Solberg S, Dobbertin M, Reinds GJ, Lange H, Andreassen K, Fernandez PG, Hildingsson A, de Vries W (2009) Analyses of the impact of changes in atmospheric deposition and climate on forest growth in European monitoring plots: a stand growth approach. For Ecol Manag 258:1735–1750
Spiecker H, Mielikäinen K, Köhl M, Skovsgaard JP (eds) (1996) Growth trends in European forests. Springer, Berlin
Tans P, Keeling R (2012) Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. NOAA/ESRL (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/) and Scripps Institution of Oceanography (scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/),
USGS (2004) Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, 30 Arc Second scenes (SRTM_GTOPO_u30_n040e020, SRTM_GTOPO_u30_n090e020, SRTM_GTOPO_u30_n090e060, SRTM_GTOPO_u30_n040w020, SRTM_GTOPO_u30_n090w020, SRTM_GTOPO_u30_n040w060, SRTM_GTOPO_u30_n090w060), Unfilled, Unfinished 2.0, Global Land Cover Facility, University of Maryland, Maryland, USA
van der Linden P, Mitchell J (eds) (2009) ENSEMBLES: climate change and its impacts: summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Vayreda J, Martinez-Vilalta J, Gracia M, Retana J (2012) Recent climate changes interact with stand structure and management to determine changes in tree carbon stocks in Spanish forests. Glob Chang Biol 18:1028–1041