Projected impacts of climate change on snow leopard habitat in Qinghai Province, China

Ecology and Evolution - Tập 11 Số 23 - Trang 17202-17218 - 2021
Jia Li1, Yadong Xue2,3, Charlotte Hacker4, Yu Zhang5, Ye Li2,3, Lee‐Jen Wei2,3, Lixiao Jin2,3, Gang Li6, Bo Wu1, Diqiang Li2,3, Yuguang Zhang2,3
1Institute of Desertification Studies, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, China
2Key Laboratory of Biodiversity Conservation of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing, China
3Research Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and Protection, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, China
4Department of Biological Sciences, Duquesne University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA
5Research Institute of Nature Protected Areas, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, China
6Social Information Department of CCTV News Center, China Media Group, Beijing, China

Tóm tắt

AbstractAssessing species’ vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for developing effective strategies to reduce emerging climate‐related threats. We used the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt model) to assess potential changes in suitable snow leopard (Panthera uncia) habitat in Qinghai Province, China, under a mild climate change scenario. Our results showed that the area of suitable snow leopard habitat in Qinghai Province was 302,821 km2 under current conditions and 228,997 km2 under the 2050s climatic scenario, with a mean upward shift in elevation of 90 m. At present, nature reserves protect 38.78% of currently suitable habitat and will protect 42.56% of future suitable habitat. Current areas of climate refugia amounted to 212,341 km2 and are mainly distributed in the Sanjiangyuan region, Qilian mountains, and surrounding areas. Our results provide valuable information for formulating strategies to meet future conservation challenges brought on by climate stress. We suggest that conservation efforts in Qinghai Province should focus on protecting areas of climate refugia and on maintaining or building corridors when planning for future species management.

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Ecology and Evolution

Tập 11 Số 23

17202-17218

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