Predictors of preference for financial investment products using CART analysis

Journal of Indian Business Research - Tập 4 Số 1 - Trang 61-86 - 2012
ShaliniKalra Sahi1, NandDhameja2, AshokPratap Arora1
1Management Development Institute, Gurgaon, India
2Indian Institute of Public Administration, New Delhi, India

Tóm tắt

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the use of a post hoc predictive segmentation procedure to find out the variables that are the most important predictors of investor's preference for specific financial investment products.

Design/methodology/approach

The study considers various demographic, socio‐economic and psychographic variables for the purpose of understanding the investor's preferences. Using a sample of individual investors (n=377), a classification and regression tree (CART) methodology was used to determine whether psychographic variables were better predictors than demographic and socio‐economic variables for understanding an individual investor's preference for the investment alternatives.

Findings

The results showed that psychographic variables emerged as the most important predictors in the case of investment products with greater degree of risk, and the demographic and socio‐economic variables emerged as the most important for the investment instruments with lesser degree of risk. However, when the sample was divided based on occupation profile (government and non‐government), for both the fixed returns based instruments and the non‐fixed instruments, psychographic variables emerged as the most important predictors.

Practical implications

These results show the need for financial service providers to consider the psychographic variables along with demographic and socio‐economic variables, so as to better understand and advise the financial consumers. This would enable the financial service institutions to target their audience more sharply, so as to develop appropriate marketing strategies and further build the investor's trust.

Originality/value

This paper is a first of its kind to empirically identify the most important variable that determines the financial consumer's preference for investment products in India, using CART technique. This study contributes to furthering the understanding of investor behavior.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Agarwal, S. (2010), “Consumer behaviour in financial markets: financial crisis and policy implications”, ISB Insight, Vol. 8 No. 2, pp. 16‐19.

Bailard, T.E., Biehl, D.L. and Kaiser, R.W. (1986), Personal Money Management, 5th ed., Science Research Associates, Chicago, IL.

Bailey, J. and Kinerson, C. (2005), “Regret avoidance and risk tolerance”, Financial Counseling and Planning, Vol. 16 No. 1, pp. 23‐8.

Baker, H.K. and Nofsinger, J.R. (2002), “Psychological biases of investors”, Financial Services Review, Vol. 11, pp. 97‐116.

Barber, B. and Odean, T. (1999), “The courage of misguided convictions”, Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 55, pp. 97‐116.

Barberis, N. and Thaler, R. (2003), “A survey of behavioural finance”, in Constantinides, G.M., Harris, M. and Stulz, R.M. (Eds), Handbook of the Economics of Finance: Volume 1B, Financial Markets and Asset Pricing, Chapter 18, Elsevier North Holland, Amsterdam.

Barnewall, M.M. (1987), “Psychological characteristics of the individual investor”, in Droms, W. (Ed.), Asset Allocation for the Individual Investor, The Institute of Chartered Financial Analysts, Charlottesville, VA.

Blais, A.‐R. and Weber, E.U. (2006), “A domain‐specific risk‐taking (DOSPERT) scale for adult populations”, Judgment & Decision Making, Vol. 1, pp. 33‐47.

Brahma, S.S. (2009), “Assessment of construct validity in management research”, Journal of Management Research, Vol. 9 No. 2, pp. 59‐71.

Breiman, L., Friedman, J.H., Olshen, R.A. and Stone, C.J. (1984), Classification and Regression Trees, Wadsworth, Monterey, CA.

Chidambaram, P. (2007), “Sesquicentennial lecture on financial literacy”, paper presented at Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Contemporary Studies, University of Mumbai, Mumbai, July 20, available at: http://pib.nic.in/release/release.asp?relid=29306.

Chikermane, G. (2006), “Who is a stock? How is a bond? Wrong questions”, Indian Express, November 10, available at: www.indianexpress.com/story/16292._.html.

Churchill, G.A. Jr (1979), “A paradigm for developing better measures of marketing constructs”, Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. 16 No. 1, pp. 64‐73.

Clark‐Murphy, M. and Soutar, G.N. (2004), “What individual investors value: some Australian evidence”, Journal of Economic Psychology, Vol. 25 No. 4, pp. 539‐55.

Clark‐Murphy, M. and Soutar, G.N. (2005), “Individual investor preferences: a segmentation analysis”, The Journal of Behavioural Finance, Vol. 6 No. 1, pp. 6‐14.

Cunningham, A.E. (2001), “An economic analysis of the factors affecting household financial asset allocation decisions”, MSc dissertation, University of Guelph, Guelph, from ABI/INFORM Global (Publication No. AAT MQ58331) (accessed April 27, 2009).

Datamonitor (2010), India: Country Analysis Report – In‐depth PESTLE Insights, Innovaro, Tampa, FL, March.

Diliberto, R. (2006), “Uncovering and understanding your clients' history, values and transitions”, Journal of Financial Planning, Vol. 19 No. 12, pp. 52‐9.

Edelweiss (2010), Edelweiss India 2020, Seeing Beyond, Edelweiss Capital, Mumbai, March 18.

Felton, J., Gibson, B. and Sanbonmatsu, D.M. (2003), “Preference for risk in investing as a function of trait optimism and gender”, The Journal of Behavioural Finance, Vol. 4 No. 1, pp. 33‐40.

Ganzach, Y. (2000), “Judging risk and return of financial assets”, Organizational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes, Vol. 83, pp. 353‐70.

Gliner, J.A., Morgan, G.A. and Leech, N.L. (2009), Research Methods in Applied Settings: An Integrated Approach to Design and Analysis, 2nd ed., Routledge, New York, NY.

Goto, S. (2007), “The bounds of classical risk management and the importance of a behavioral approach”, Risk Management and Insurance Review, Vol. 10 No. 2, pp. 267‐82.

Gunnarson, J. and Wahlund, R. (1997), “Household financial strategies in Sweden: an exploratory study”, Journal of Economic Psychology, Vol. 18 No. 2, pp. 211‐33.

Gupta, L.C. (1991), Indian Shareowners: A Survey, Society of Capital Market Research & Development, New Delhi.

Hair, J.F., Black, W.C., Babin, B.B., Anderson, R.E. and Tatham, R.L. (2008), Multivariate Data Analysis, 6th ed., Pearson Education, New Delhi.

Hallahan, T.A., Faff, R.W. and McKenzie, M.D. (2004), “An empirical investigation of personal financial risk tolerance”, Financial Services Review, Vol. 13 No. 1, pp. 57‐78.

Hilton, D.J. (2001), “The psychology of financial decision‐making: applications to trading, dealing and investment analysis”, The Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets, Vol. 2, pp. 37‐53.

Hira, T.K. (1987), “Money management practices influencing household asset ownership”, Journal of Consumer Studies & Home Economics, Vol. 11, pp. 183‐94.

Hsee, C.K. and Kunreuther, H.C. (2000), “The affection effect in insurance decisions”, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Vol. 20 No. 2, pp. 141‐59.

Kahneman, D. and Riepe, M.W. (1998), “Aspects of investor psychology”, Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 24 No. 4, pp. 52‐65.

Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (1974), “Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases”, Science, Vol. 185 No. 4157, pp. 1124‐31.

Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (1979), “Prospect theory: an analysis of decision making under risk”, Econometrica, Vol. 47 No. 2, pp. 263‐92.

Keller, C. and Siegrist, M. (2006a), “Investing in stocks: the influence of financial risk attitude and values‐related money and stock market attitudes”, Journal of Economic Psychology, Vol. 27, pp. 285‐303.

Keller, C. and Siegrist, M. (2006b), “Money attitude typology and stock investment”, The Journal of Behavioural Finance, Vol. 7 No. 2, pp. 88‐96.

Keren, G. and Teigen, K.H. (2004), “(Yet) another look at the heuristics and biases research program”, in Koehler, D.J. and Harvey, N. (Eds), Blackwell Handbook of Decision Making, Blackwell, Oxford, pp. 89‐109.

Kuhnen, C.M. and Chiao, J.Y. (2009), “Genetic determinants of financial risk taking”, PLoS ONE, Vol. 4 No. 2, pp. 1‐4.

Kumar, R.V. and Sarkar, A. (2008), “Psychographic segmentation of Indian urban consumers”, Journal of Asia Pacific Economy, Vol. 13 No. 2, pp. 204‐26.

Lampenius, N. and Zickar, M.J. (2005), “Development and validation of a model and measure of financial risk‐taking”, The Journal of Behavioural Finance, Vol. 6 No. 3, pp. 129‐43.

Lee, J. (2002), “A key to marketing financial services: the right mix of products, services, channels and customers”, Journal of Services Marketing, Vol. 16 No. 3, pp. 238‐58.

Lewellen, W.G., Lease, R.C. and Schlarbaum, G.G. (1977), “Patterns of investment strategy and behaviour among individual investors”, Journal of Business, Vol. 50 No. 3, pp. 296‐333.

Lewis, R.J. (2000), “An introduction to the classification and regression tree (CART) analysis”, paper presented at 2000 Annual Meeting of the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine, San Francisco, CA, May 23, available at: www.saem.org/download/lewis1.pdf (accessed August 5, 2009).

Loibl, C. and Hira, T.K. (2009), “Investor information search”, Journal of Economic Psychology, Vol. 30 No. 1, pp. 24‐41.

Markowitz, H.M. (1952), “Portfolio selection”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 7 No. 1, pp. 77‐91.

Mittal, M. and Vyas, R.K. (2007), “Demographics and investment choice among Indian investors”, ICFAI Journal of Behavioural Finance, Vol. 4 No. 4, pp. 51‐65.

Mudholkar, R.S. and Sadique, M.N. (2007), “Its time for metamorphosis: the transition in the financial services industry in India”, Financial Planning Journal, Vol. 9, pp. 18‐24.

Nagpal, S. (2007), Psychology of Investments and Investors' Preferences, Regal, New Delhi.

Nagpal, S. and Bodla, B.S. (2009), “Impact of investors' lifestyle on their investment pattern: an empirical study”, The ICFAI University Journal of Behavioural Finance, Vol. 6 No. 2, pp. 28‐51.

Nilsson, J. (2008), “Investment with a conscience: examining the impact of pro‐social attitudes and perceived financial performance on socially responsible investment behaviour”, Journal of Business Ethics, Vol. 83 No. 2, pp. 307‐25.

Nofsinger, J. (2001), Investment Madness, Financial Times Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ.

Nosic, A. and Weber, M. (2007), “Determinants of risk taking behavior: the role of risk attitudes, risk perceptions and beliefs”, paper presented at Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim, No. 07‐56, available at: www.sfb504.uni‐mannheim.de/publications/dp07‐56.pdf.

Nunnally, J.C. (1967), Psychometric Theory, McGraw‐Hill, New York, NY.

OECD (2004), “OECD's financial education project”, Financial Market Trends, Vol. 87, October, pp. 223‐8.

Olsen, R.A. (2007), “Investors' predisposition for annuities: a psychological perspective”, Journal of Financial Service Professionals, Vol. 61 No. 5, pp. 51‐7.

Parasuraman, A., Grewal, D. and Krishnan, R. (2007), Marketing Research, 2nd ed., Houghton Mifflin, Boston, MA.

Perry, V.G. and Morris, M.D. (2005), “Who is in control? The role of self‐perception, knowledge and income in explaining consumer financial behaviour”, Journal of Consumer Affairs, Vol. 39, pp. 299‐313.

Pompian, M.M. (2006), Behavioural Finance and Wealth Management: How to Build Optimal Portfolios that Account for Investor Biases, Wiley Finance, Hoboken, NJ.

Pompian, M.M. (2008), “Using behavioural investor types to build better relationships with your clients”, Journal of Financial Planning, Vol. 21 No. 10, pp. 64‐76.

Pradhan, P. (2008), “Financial literacy: how critical for banking?”, Indian Banker, Vol. 3, July, pp. 14‐23.

Prast, H. (2004), “Investor psychology: a behvioural explaination of six financial puzzles”, Research Series of De Nederlandsche Bank, Amsterdam.

Raja, R. (2006), “Attitude towards risk”, Financial Planning Journal, Vol. 9, pp. 38‐40.

Reddy, Y.V. (2006), “The role of financial education: the Indian case”, available at: www.bis.org/review/r060921b.pdf (accessed November 2, 2007)..

Roszkowski, M.J., Delaney, M.M. and Cordell, D.M. (2009), “Intraperson consistency in financial risk tolerance assessment: temporal stability, relationship to total score and effect on criterion‐related validity”, Journal of Business and Psychology, Vol. 24 No. 4, pp. 455‐67.

Sahi, S.K. (2009), “Financial literacy education for the Indian consumer: the road to economic development”, International Journal of Indian Culture and Business Management, Vol. 2 No. 5, pp. 493‐518.

Sevdalis, N. and Harvey, N. (2007), “‘Investing’ versus ‘investing for a reason’: context effects in investment decisions”, Journal of Behavioural Finance, Vol. 8 No. 3, pp. 172‐6.

Shefrin, H. (2002), Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioural Finance and the Psychology of Investing, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA.

Slovic, P. (1972), “Psychological study of human judgment: implications for investment decision making”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 27 No. 4.

Slovic, P., Finucane, M.L., Peters, E. and MacGregor, D.G. (2004), “Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk and rationality”, Risk Analysis, Vol. 24 No. 2, pp. 311‐22.

Swafford, P.M., Ghosh, S. and Murthy, N. (2006), “The antecedents of supply chain agility of a firm: scale development and model testing”, Journal of Operations Management, Vol. 24 No. 2, pp. 170‐88.

Thaler, R. (1980), “Toward a positive theory of consumer choice”, Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organisation, Vol. 1 No. 1, pp. 39‐60.

Thrasher, R.P. (1991), “CART: a recent advance in tree‐structured list segmentation methodology”, Journal of Direct Marketing, Vol. 5, pp. 35‐47.

van de Venn, A.H. and Ferry, D.I. (1980), Measuring and Assessing Organisations, Wiley, New York, NY.

Verma, M. (2008), “Wealth management and behavioural finance: the effect of demographics and personality on investment choice among Indian investors”, The ICFAI University Journal of Behavioural Finance, Vol. 5 No. 4, pp. 31‐57.

Warren, W.E., Stevens, R.E. and McConkey, C.W. (1990), “Using demographic and lifestyle analysis to segment individual investors”, Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 46 No. 2, pp. 74‐7.

Weber, E.U., Blais, A.R. and Betz, N. (2002), “A domain‐specific risk‐attitude scale: measuring risk perceptions and risk behaviours”, Journal of Behavioural Decision Making, Vol. 15, pp. 263‐90.

Williams, G. (2007), “Some determinants of the socially responsible investment decision: a cross‐country study”, Journal of Behavioural Finance, Vol. 8 No. 1, pp. 43‐57.

Wood, R. and Zaichkowsky, J.L. (2004), “Attitudes and trading behaviour of stock market investors: a segmentation approach”, The Journal of Behavioural Finance, Vol. 5 No. 3, pp. 170‐9.

Yohanness, Y. and Hoddinott, J. (1999), “Classification and regression trees: an introduction”, Technical Report No. 3, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC, March.