Population dynamics and drivers of the eastern monarch (Danaus plexippus) across its full annual cycle: a cross-scale synthesis of a model migratory species

Current Opinion in Insect Science - Tập 60 - Trang 101132 - 2023
Vaughn Shirey1,2, Leslie Ries1
1Department of Biology, Georgetown University, 37th and O Streets NW, Washington, DC 20057, USA
2Marine and Environmental Biology Section – Department of Biological Sciences, University of Southern California, Allan Hancock Foundation Building, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA

Tài liệu tham khảo

Gustafsson, 2015, The monarch butterfly through time and space: the social construction of an icon, BioScience, 65, 612, 10.1093/biosci/biv045

Brower, 1995, On the dangers of interpopulational transfers of monarch butterflies, BioScience, 45, 540, 10.2307/1312699

Ries, 2015, A citizen army for science: quantifying the contributions of citizen scientists to our understanding of monarch butterfly biology, BioScience, 65, 419, 10.1093/biosci/biv011

Schultz, 2017, Citizen science monitoring demonstrates dramatic declines of monarch butterflies in western North America, Biol Conserv, 214, 343, 10.1016/j.biocon.2017.08.019

Brower, 2018, A long-term survey of spring monarch butterflies in north-central Florida, J Nat Hist, 52, 2025, 10.1080/00222933.2018.1510057

Agrawal, 2018, Mechanisms behind the monarch’s decline, Science, 360, 1294, 10.1126/science.aat5066

Stenoien, 2018, Monarchs in decline: a collateral landscape-level effect of modern agriculture, Insect Sci, 25, 528, 10.1111/1744-7917.12404

United States Fish and Wildlife Service. Monarch (Danaus plexippus) Species Status Assessment Report. Version 2.1 96 + appendices, 2020.

Walker, 2022, Danaus plexippus ssp. plexippus, The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species

Marra, 2015, A call for full annual cycle research in animal ecology, Biol Lett, 11, 10.1098/rsbl.2015.0552

Wagner, 2021, Insect decline in the Anthropocene: death by a thousand cuts, Proc Natl Acad Sci, 118, 10.1073/pnas.2023989118

Vidal, 2014, Trends in deforestation and forest degradation after a decade of monitoring in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve in Mexico, Conserv Biol, 28, 177, 10.1111/cobi.12138

Rollinson, 2021, Working across space and time: nonstationarity in ecological research and application, Front Ecol Environ, 19, 66, 10.1002/fee.2298

Zipkin, 2021, Addressing data integration challenges to link ecological processes across scales, Front Ecol Environ, 19, 30, 10.1002/fee.2290

Vidal, 2014, Dynamics and trends of overwintering colonies of the monarch butterfly in Mexico, Biol Conserv, 180, 165, 10.1016/j.biocon.2014.09.041

Rattner, 2009, History of wildlife toxicology, Ecotoxicology, 18, 773, 10.1007/s10646-009-0354-x

Ries, 2015, Connecting eastern monarch population dynamics across their migratory cycle, 268

Swengel, 1995, Population fluctuations of the monarch (Danaus plexippus) in the 4th of July Butterfly Count 1977-1994, Am Midl Nat, 134, 205, 10.2307/2426291

Zylstra, 2021

Davis, 2012, Are migratory monarchs really declining in eastern North America? Examining evidence from two fall census programs, Insect Conserv Divers, 5, 101, 10.1111/j.1752-4598.2011.00158.x

Ries, 2015, The disconnect between summer and winter monarch trends for the eastern migratory population: possible links to differing drivers, Ann Èntomol Soc Am, 108, 691, 10.1093/aesa/sav055

Inamine, 2016, Linking the continental migratory cycle of the monarch butterfly to understand its population decline, Oikos, 125, 1081, 10.1111/oik.03196

Crewe, 2019, Size of the Canadian breeding population of monarch butterflies is driven by factors acting during spring migration and recolonization, Front Ecol Evol, 7, 10.3389/fevo.2019.00308

Badgett, 2015, Population trends of monarchs at a northern monitoring site: analyses of 19 years of fall migration counts at Peninsula Point, MI, Ann Èntomol Soc Am, 108, 700, 10.1093/aesa/sav060

Pleasants, 2016, Conclusion of no decline in summer monarch population not supported, Ann Èntomol Soc Am, 109, 169, 10.1093/aesa/sav115

Crossley, 2022, Opposing global change drivers counterbalance trends in breeding North American monarch butterflies, Glob Change Biol, 28, 4726, 10.1111/gcb.16282

Kinkead, 2019, Design implications for surveys to monitor monarch butterfly population trends, Front Ecol Evol, 7, 10.3389/fevo.2019.00195

Wepprich, 2019, Butterfly abundance declines over 20 years of systematic monitoring in Ohio, USA, PLos One, 14, 10.1371/journal.pone.0216270

Breed, 2013, Climate-driven changes in northeastern US butterfly communities, Nat Clim Change, 3, 142, 10.1038/nclimate1663

Michielini, 2021, Changes in flight period predict trends in abundance of Massachusetts butterflies, Ecol Lett, 24, 249, 10.1111/ele.13637

Saunders, 2019, Multiscale seasonal factors drive the size of winter monarch colonies, Proc Natl Acad Sci, 116, 8609, 10.1073/pnas.1805114116

Thogmartin, 2017, Monarch butterfly population decline in North America: identifying the threatening processes, R Soc Open Sci, 4, 10.1098/rsos.170760

Taylor, 2020, Evaluating the migration mortality hypothesis using monarch tagging data, Front Ecol Evol, 8, 264, 10.3389/fevo.2020.00264

Stenoien, 2015, Habitat productivity and temporal patterns of monarch butterfly egg densities in the eastern United States, Ann Èntomol Soc Am, 108, 670, 10.1093/aesa/sav054

Nail, 2015, Immature monarch survival: effects of site characteristics, density, and time, Ann Èntomol Soc Am, 108, 680, 10.1093/aesa/sav047

Thogmartin, 2020, Evidence for a growing population of eastern migratory monarch butterflies is currently insufficient, Front Ecol Evol, 8, 10.3389/fevo.2020.00043

Belsky, 2018, Assessing role of major drivers in recent decline of monarch butterfly population in North America, Front Environ Sci, 6, 10.3389/fenvs.2018.00086

Agrawal, 2019, Advances in understanding the long-term population decline of monarch butterflies, Proc Natl Acad Sci, 116, 8093, 10.1073/pnas.1903409116

Marini, 2017, Density-dependence in the declining population of the monarch butterfly, Sci Rep, 7, 1, 10.1038/s41598-017-14510-w

Zipkin, 2012, Tracking climate impacts on the migratory monarch butterfly, Glob Change Biol, 18, 3039, 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02751.x

Saunders, 2016, Evaluating confidence in climate-based predictions of population change in a migratory species, Glob Ecol Biogeogr, 25, 1000, 10.1111/geb.12461

Saunders, 2018, Local and cross-seasonal associations of climate and land use with abundance of monarch butterflies Danaus plexippus, Ecography, 41, 278, 10.1111/ecog.02719

Nail, 2015, What’s too hot and what’s too cold, 8, 99

Crewe, 2015, Long-term trends in the number of monarch butterflies (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) counted on fall migration at Long Point, Ontario, Canada (1995–2014), Ann Èntomol Soc Am, 108, 707, 10.1093/aesa/sav041

Pleasants, 2013, Milkweed loss in agricultural fields because of herbicide use: effect on the monarch butterfly population, Insect Conserv Divers, 6, 135, 10.1111/j.1752-4598.2012.00196.x

Zaya, 2017, Long-term trends in midwestern milkweed abundances and their relevance to monarch butterfly declines, BioScience, 67, 343, 10.1093/biosci/biw186

Haan, 2019, The importance of shifting disturbance regimes in monarch butterfly decline and recovery, Front Ecol Evol, 7, 191, 10.3389/fevo.2019.00191

Baker, 2015

Stone, 2013

Pocius, 2018, Monarch butterflies show differential utilization of nine Midwestern milkweed species, Front Ecol Evol, 6, 10.3389/fevo.2018.00169

Van Deynze B., Swinton S.M., Hennessy D.A., Ries L.: Adoption of modern pest control systems associated with declines in butterfly abundance across Midwestern monitoring network, bioRxiv. 2022.

Sears, 2001, Impact of Bt corn pollen on monarch butterfly populations: a risk assessment, Proc Natl Acad Sci, 98, 11937, 10.1073/pnas.211329998

Krishnan, 2021, Monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) life-stage risks from foliar and seed-treatment insecticides, Environ Toxicol Chem, 40, 1761, 10.1002/etc.5016

Krishnan, 2020, Assessing field-scale risks of foliar insecticide applications to monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) larvae, Environ Toxicol Chem, 39, 923, 10.1002/etc.4672

Prouty, 2023, Adult monarch butterflies show high tolerance to neonicotinoid insecticides, Ecol Entomol, 48, 531, 10.1111/een.13245

Gilburn, 2015, Are neonicotinoid insecticides driving declines of widespread butterflies?, PeerJ, 3, 10.7717/peerj.1402

Forister, 2016, Increasing neonicotinoid use and the declining butterfly fauna of lowland California, Biol Lett, 12, 10.1098/rsbl.2016.0475

Douglas, 2022, Putting pesticides on the map for pollinator research and conservation, Sci Data, 9, 10.1038/s41597-022-01584-z

Boyle, 2019, Monarch butterfly and milkweed declines substantially predate the use of genetically modified crops, Proc Natl Acad Sci, 116, 3006, 10.1073/pnas.1811437116

Ries, 2019, Tracking trends in monarch abundance over the 20th century is currently impossible using museum records, Proc Natl Acad Sci, 116, 13745, 10.1073/pnas.1904807116

Shirey, 2022, Occupancy-detection models for natural history museum data: promise and pitfalls, Methods Ecol Evol, 14, 402, 10.1111/2041-210X.13896

Larsen, 2021, Method matters: pitfalls in analysing phenology from occurrence records, Ecol Lett, 24, 1287, 10.1111/ele.13731