Lực lượng bác sĩ tại Hoa Kỳ: Dự báo tình trạng thiếu hụt trên toàn quốc
Tóm tắt
Các bác sĩ đóng một vai trò quan trọng trong việc cung cấp dịch vụ chăm sóc sức khỏe. Với dân số Hoa Kỳ già đi, sự phát triển dân số, và tỷ lệ dân số được bảo hiểm cao hơn theo Đạo luật Chăm sóc Giá cả phải chăng (ACA), nhu cầu chăm sóc sức khỏe đang tăng trưởng với tốc độ chưa từng có. Nghiên cứu này nhằm xem xét xu hướng dư thừa/thiếu hụt bác sĩ hiện tại và tương lai trên toàn nước Mỹ từ năm 2017 đến năm 2030.
Sử dụng các thay đổi dự báo về quy mô và độ tuổi dân số, tác giả đã phát triển các mô hình cầu và cung để dự đoán tình trạng thiếu bác sĩ (sự chênh lệch giữa cầu và cung) ở mỗi tiểu bang thuộc 50 tiểu bang của Mỹ. Các tỷ lệ thiếu bác sĩ (số bác sĩ thiếu trên 100 000 dân) sẽ được phân loại theo cấp độ chữ cái để đánh giá tình trạng thiếu bác sĩ và mô tả sự thay đổi trong lực lượng bác sĩ ở mỗi tiểu bang.
Dựa trên các xu hướng hiện tại, số tiểu bang nhận được cấp độ “D” hoặc “F” cho tỷ lệ thiếu bác sĩ sẽ tăng từ 4 vào năm 2017 lên 23 vào năm 2030, với tổng số việc làm bác sĩ thiếu hụt quốc gia là 139 160. Đến năm 2030, miền Tây được dự báo sẽ có tỷ lệ thiếu hụt bác sĩ cao nhất (69 việc làm bác sĩ trên 100 000 dân), trong khi miền Đông Bắc sẽ có dư thừa 50 việc làm trên 100 000 dân.
Sẽ có tình trạng thiếu lực lượng bác sĩ trên toàn quốc vào năm 2030. Kết quả của nghiên cứu này cung cấp nền tảng để thảo luận về các phương pháp hiệu quả nhằm hạn chế tình trạng thiếu hụt đang gia tăng trong những thập kỷ tới và đáp ứng các nhu cầu dân số hiện tại và tương lai. Cần có nỗ lực tăng cường để hiểu rõ các động lực của tình trạng thiếu hụt.
Từ khóa
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