POPULATION CYCLES IN THE PINE LOOPER MOTH: DYNAMICAL TESTS OF MECHANISTIC HYPOTHESES

Ecological Monographs - Tập 75 Số 2 - Trang 259-276 - 2005
Bruce E. Kendall1,2,3, Stephen P. Ellner1, Edward McCauley4, Simon N. Wood5,6, Cheryl J. Briggs7, William W. Murdoch8, Peter Turchin9
1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853, USA,
2Donald Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, California 93106-5131 USA
3National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California, Santa Barbara, California 93106 USA
4Ecology Division, Department of Biology, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, T2N 1N4, Canada
5Present address: Department of Statistics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, United Kingdom
6The Mathematical Institute, North Haugh, St. Andrews, Fife KY16 9SS, UK
7Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA
8Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, California 93106-9610 USA
9Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut, 06269, USA

Tóm tắt

The forest insect pestBupalus piniarius(pine looper moth) is a classic example of a natural population cycle. As is typical for populations that exhibit regular oscillations in density, there are several biological mechanisms that are hypothesized to be responsible for the cycles; but despite several decades of detailed study there has been no definite conclusion as to which mechanism is most important. We evaluated three hypotheses for which there was direct experimental evidence: (1) food quality (nutritional value of pine needles affected by defoliation); (2) parasitoids (trophic interactions with specialist parasitoids); and (3) maternal effects (maternal body size affects the performance of offspring). We reviewed the empirical evidence for each of these hypotheses and expressed each hypothesis in the form of a mechanistic dynamic model. We used a nonlinear forecasting approach to fit each model to three long‐term population time series in Britain that exhibit some degree of regular cycling, and we used parametric bootstrap to evaluate the significance of differences between models in their goodness of fit to the data. The results differed among the three forests: at Culbin, the parasitoid and maternal effects models fit equally well; at Roseisle, the food quality and maternal effects models fit equally well; and at Tentsmuir, the parasitoid model fit best. However, the best‐fit parasitism models required that the parasitism rate vary between nearly 0 and nearly 1 during a cycle, greatly exceeding the range of parasitism rates that have been observed in the field. In contrast, the required variation in the observable maternal quality variable (pupal mass) was within the range of empirical observations. Under mild constraints on the parasitism rate (though allowing a much wider range than has been measured inB. piniariusat any location), the fit of the parasitism model fell off dramatically. The maternal effects model then had uniformly strong support, outperforming the constrained parasitism model at all three sites and the food quality model at two; it performed slightly better than the food quality model at the remaining site. This represents the first system in which the maternal effects hypothesis for population cycles has been supported by both strong biological and dynamical evidence.

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Ecological Monographs

Tập 75 Số 2

259-276

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