Multimodel ensemble projection of precipitation in eastern China under A1B emission scenario

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres - Tập 120 Số 19 - Trang 9965-9980 - 2015
Xiaorui Niu1,2, Shuyu Wang1,2, Jianping Tang1,2, Dong‐Kyou Lee3, Xuejie Gao4, Wu Jia5, Song‐You Hong6, William J. Gutowski7, John L. McGregor8
1Institute for Climate and Global Change Research, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
2School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
3Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
4Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
5Chinese Meteorology Agency, Beijing, China
6Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Seoul, South Korea
7Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, USA
8Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Tóm tắt

AbstractAs part of the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia, future precipitation projection in China is constructed using five regional climate models (RCMs) driven by the same global climate model (GCM) of European Centre/Hamburg version 5. The simulations cover both the control climate (1978–2000) and future projection (2041–2070) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario A1B. For the control climate, the RCMs have an advantage over the driving GCM in reproducing the summer mean precipitation distribution and the annual cycle. The biases in simulating summer precipitation mainly are caused by the deficiencies in reproducing the low‐level circulation, such as the western Pacific subtropical high. In addition, large inter‐RCM differences exist in the summer precipitation simulations. For the future climate, consistent and inconsistent changes in precipitation between the driving GCM and the nested RCMs are observed. Similar changes in summer precipitation are projected by RCMs over western China, but model behaviors are quite different over eastern China, which is dominated by the Asian monsoon system. The inter‐RCM difference of rainfall changes is more pronounced in spring over eastern China. North China and the southern part of South China are very likely to experience less summer rainfall in multi‐RCM mean (MRM) projection, while limited credibility in increased summer rainfall MRM projection over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The inter‐RCM variability is the main contributor to the total uncertainty for the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and South China during 2041–2060, while lowest for Northeast China, being less than 40%.

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Thông tin xuất bản

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

Tập 120 Số 19

9965-9980

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