Modelling the Eurozone as an Extraordinary Exchange Rate Union
Tóm tắt
The Trans-European Automated Real-Time Gross settlement Express Transfer system (TARGET) imbalances within the Eurozone can be interpreted as a sign of a missing balance of payments adjustment mechanism for the member countries. As the Eurozone lacks a fiscal union, in theory it is more of an exchange rate union or a system of fixed exchange rates than a monetary union. This paper will show why the TARGET is a crucial indicator for the Eurozone not being a monetary union but instead an exchange rate union, and why countries holding TARGET liabilities against the European System of Central Banks can be compared to a reserve currency country, like the US under the Bretton-Woods System.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Cour-Thimann, P. (2013). Target balances and the crisis in the Euro Area, CESifo forum (Vol. 14). April: Special Issue.
Daseking, C. (1994): Makroökonomische Interdependenzen in einer Wechselkursunion, Europäische Hochschulschriften, Reihe 5, Band 1631, Frankfurt a. M., Berlin, Bern, New York, Paris, Wien: Peter Lang.
De Grauwe, P. (2012): The Eurozone’s Design Failures: can they be corrected?, LSE European Institute inaugural public lecture, November, 28th, http://www2.lse.ac.uk/publicEvents/pdf/2012_MT/20121128-Prof-Grauwe-PPT.pdf, accessed February, 26th, 2013.
Feuerstein, S., & Siebke, J. (1987). Wechselkursunion und Stabilitätspolitik in einem einfachen keynesianischen modell. WISU, 16(12), 635–641.
Kohler, W. (2012): The Eurosystem in Times of Crises: The Greece in the Role of a Reserve Currency Country, CESifo Forum, Vol. 13, Special Issue, January, pp. 14–22.
Levin, J.H. (1983): A Model of Stabilization Policy in a Jointly Floating Currency Area, in: Bhandari, J.S./Bluford, H.P. (Eds.): Economic Interdependence and Flexible Exchange Rates, Cambridge (Massachusetts), London: MIT Press, pp. 329-349.
Mayer, T. (2011): Die verborgene Zahlungsbilanzkrise der Eurozone, EU-Monitor 88, Deutsche Bank Research, November, 8th.
Merler, S., & Pisani-Ferry, J. (2012): Sudden stops in the Euro Area, Bruegel Policy Contribution, Issue 2012/06
Reinhart, C., & Rogoff, K. (2010). Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review, 100(2), 573–578.
Sauer, B., & Sell, F.L. (2013): Is the Eurozone not a Monetary Union, but an Extraordinary Exchange Rate Union?, Working Papers in Economics, Vol. 25, No. 2, Bundeswehr University Munich
Schlesinger, H. (2012): The Balance of Payments tells us the Truth, CESifo Forum, Vol. 13, Special Issue, January, pp. 11–13.
Sell, F. L. (1998). zu den wirkungen des stabilitätspaktes in der europäischen währungsunion, ifo studien. Zeitschrift für empirische Wirtschaftsforschung, 44(3), 233–266.
Sell, F.L., & Sauer, B. (2011): A Further View on Current Account, Capital Account and Target2Balances: Assessing the Effect on Capital Structure and Economic Welfare, Working Papers in Economics, Vol. 23, No. 2, Bundeswehr University Munich.
Sell, F.L., & Sauer, B. (2012): Money, Capital Markets and Welfare: An Analysis of the Effects of Target2 Balances, CESifo Forum, Vol. 13, Special Issue, January, pp. 55–62.
Sinn, H.-W. (2013): Austerity, Growth and Inflation. Remarks on the Eurozone’s Unresolved Competitiveness Problem, CESifo Working Paper, No. 4086.
Sinn, H.-W., & Wollmershäuser, T. (2012): Target-Salden und die deutsche Kapitalbilanz im Zeichen der europäischen Zahlungsbilanzkrise, ifo Working Papers, No. 149.
Tornell, A., & Westermann, F. (2012): Greece: The sudden stop that wasn’t, CESifo Forum, Vol. 13, Special Issue, January, pp. 102–103.
Vaubel, R. (2012): EZB verstößt gegen Europa–Recht, Handelsblatt, October, 7th.