Macroeconomic Effects of Precautionary Demand for Oil

Journal of Applied Econometrics - Tập 30 Số 6 - Trang 968-986 - 2015
Alessio Anzuini1, Patrizio Pagano1, Massimiliano Pisani1
1Banca d’Italia, Rome, Italy

Tóm tắt

SummaryWe evaluate the macroeconomic effects of shocks specific to the oil market, which mainly reflect fluctuations in precautionary demand for oil driven by uncertainty about future supplies. A two‐stage identification procedure is used. First, daily changes in the futures–spot price spread proxy for precautionary demand shocks and the path of oil prices is estimated. This information is then exploited to restrict the oil price response in a vector autoregression. Impulse responses suggest that such shocks reduce output and raise prices. Historical decomposition shows that they contributed significantly to the US recessions in the 1990s and in the early 2000s, but not to the most recent slump. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Thông tin xuất bản

Journal of Applied Econometrics

Tập 30 Số 6

968-986

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