Linking ecological niche models and common garden experiments to predict phenotypic differentiation in stressful environments: Assessing the adaptive value of marginal populations in an alpine plant

Global Change Biology - Tập 28 Số 13 - Trang 4143-4162 - 2022
Javier Morente‐López1,2, Jamie M. Kass3,4,5, Carlos Lara‐Romero2, Josep M. Serra‐Diaz6, José C. Soto-Correa7, Robert P. Anderson4,8,5, José María Iriondo2
1Island Ecology and Evolution Research Group Institute of Natural Products and Agrobiology, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (IPNA‐CSIC) San Cristóbal de La Laguna, Tenerife Spain
2Área de Biodiversidad y Conservación Depto. de Biología, Geología Física y Química Inorgánica ESCET Universidad Rey Juan Carlos (URJC) Madrid Móstoles Spain
3Biodiversity and Biocomplexity Unit Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University Kunigami-gun Okinawa Japan
4Department of Biology City College of New York City University of New York New York New York USA
5Ph.D. Program in Biology Graduate Center City University of New York New York New York USA
6Université de Lorraine, AgroParisTech, INRAE, Nancy, France
7Facultad de Ciencias Naturales Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro (FCN‐UAQ) Santa Rosa Jáuregui, Querétaro Mexico
8Division of Vertebrate Zoology (Mammalogy) American Museum of Natural History New York New York USA

Tóm tắt

AbstractEnvironmental variation within a species’ range can create contrasting selective pressures, leading to divergent selection and novel adaptations. The conservation value of populations inhabiting environmentally marginal areas remains in debate and is closely related to the adaptive potential in changing environments. Strong selection caused by stressful conditions may generate novel adaptations, conferring these populations distinct evolutionary potential and high conservation value under climate change. On the other hand, environmentally marginal populations may be genetically depauperate, with little potential for new adaptations to emerge. Here, we explored the use of ecological niche models (ENMs) linked with common garden experiments to predict and test for genetically determined phenotypic differentiation related to contrasting environmental conditions. To do so, we built an ENM for the alpine plant Silene ciliata in central Spain and conducted common garden experiments, assessing flowering phenology changes and differences in leaf cell resistance to extreme temperatures. The suitability patterns and response curves of the ENM led to the predictions that: (1) the environmentally marginal populations experiencing less snowpack and higher minimum temperatures would have delayed flowering to avoid risks of late‐spring frosts and (2) those with higher minimum temperatures and greater potential evapotranspiration would show enhanced cell resistance to high temperatures to deal with physiological stress related to desiccation and heat. The common garden experiments revealed the expected genetically based phenotypic differentiation in flowering phenology. In contrast, they did not show the expected differentiation for cell resistance, but these latter experiments had high variance and hence lower statistical power. The results highlight ENMs as useful tools to identify contrasting putative selective pressures across species ranges. Linking ENMs with common garden experiments provides a theoretically justified and practical way to study adaptive processes, including insights regarding the conservation value of populations inhabiting environmentally marginal areas under ongoing climate change.

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Global Change Biology

Tập 28 Số 13

4143-4162

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