Investigating the effect of climate change on food loss and food security in Bangladesh
Tóm tắt
Climate change and extreme climatic events cause massive food grain loss, which adversely impacts food availability, food import, and other economic factors. Bangladesh has been combating climate variability and extreme climatic events to abate agricultural production loss for a long time. In this article, we investigated the relationship between food grain loss and food security with reference to extreme climatic events in Bangladesh, based on data from 1984 to 2017. We used the vector auto-regression (VAR) model and derivative analyses, and suggested policy implications related to the existing national agricultural policy. Five time-series variables were judiciously considered: food availability, food loss, food import, gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, and inflation rate. The results show that the variable, food grain loss has a reverse association with food security—it escalates import from the world food market, causing import-dependence. Moreover, food loss significantly instigates inflation. However, the GDP growth rate was found to be a weak provocateur. Overall, climate change and climatic extremes jeopardize the country’s food security and hinder its pursuit of the sustainable development goals, especially stand-alone goals 1 and 2. Therefore, it is concluded that changes in climate and their correlations are detrimental to Bangladesh’s food security and economy.
Tài liệu tham khảo
ACAPS (Assessment Capabilities Projects) (2014) ACAPS briefing note: North Bangladesh—floods. https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/140827-START-ACAPS-Bangladesh-Floods.pdf. Accessed 10 Dec 2020
Acevedo S (2014) Debt, growth and natural disasters a Caribbean trilogy. IMF working paper no. WP/14/125
Adger WN, Huq S, Brown K, Conway D, Hulme M (2003) Adaptation to climate change in the developing world. Prog Dev Stud 3(3):179–195. https://doi.org/10.1191/1464993403ps060oa
Adnan S (1993) Living without floods: lessons from the drought of 1992. Research and Advisory Services, Dhaka
African Development Bank, Asian Development Bank, Department for International Development, United Kingdom, Directorate-General for Development, European Commission, Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany, Ministry of Foreign Affairs-Development Cooperation, The Netherlands, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, United Nations Development Program, United Nations Environment Program, and The World Bank (2002) Poverty and climate change, reducing the vulnerability of the poor through adaptation. http://www.oecd.org/env/cc/2502872.pdf. Accessed 20 Dec 2020
Afrin R, Hossain F, Mamun SA (2018) Analysis of droughts in the northern regions of Bangladesh using standardized precipitation index (SPI). J Environ Sci Nat Resour 11(1 & 2):199–216
Alam GMM, Alam K, Mushtaq S (2017) Climate change perceptions and local adaptation strategies of hazard-prone rural households in Bangladesh. Clim Risk Manage 17(2017):52–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2017.06.006
Alamgir MS, Furuya J, Kobayashi S, Binte MR, Salam MA (2018) Farmers’ net income distribution and regional vulnerability to climate change: an empirical study of Bangladesh. Climate 6:65. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6030065
Ananno AA, Masud MH, Chowdhury SA, Dabnichki P, Ahmed N, Arefin AME (2021) Sustainable food waste management model for Bangladesh. Sustain Prod Consum 27:35–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2020.10.022
Applanaidu SD, Abu Bakar NA, Baharudin AH (2014) An econometric analysis of food security and related macroeconomic variables in Malaysia: a vector autoregressive approach (VAR). UMK Procedia 1:93–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.umkpro.2014.07.012
Asada H, Matsumoto J (2009) Effects of rainfall variation on rice production in the Ganges-Brahmaputra Basin. Clim Res 38:249–260. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00785
Banglapedia (2021) National encyclopedia of Bangladesh. Season. http://en.banglapedia.org/index.php?title=season
BBS (2017) Bangladesh bureau of Statistics, Statistics and Informatics Division, Ministry of Planning, the Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
BBS (2018a) 45 years agricultural statistics of major crops (Aus, Amon, Boro, Jute, Potato and Wheat), Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Statistics and Informatics Division, Ministry of Planning, the Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
BBS Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (2018b) Statistical pocket book Bangladesh 2018.Statistics and Informatics Division, Ministry of Planning, the Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
Bhowmik AK, Costa AC (2012) A geostatistical approach to the seasonal precipitation effect on boro rice production in Bangladesh. Int J Geosci 3:443–462
Carletto C, Zezza A, Banerjee R (2013) Towards better management of household food security: harmonizing indicators and the role of household surveys. Glob Food Secur 2:30–40
Cazzuffi C, McKay A, Perge E (2020) The impact of agricultural commercialization on household welfare in rural Vietnam. Food Policy 94(2020):101810. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2019.101811
Chavez E, Conway G, Ghil M, Sadler M (2015) An end-to-end assessment of extreme weather impacts on food security. Nat Clim Change 5(11):997–1001. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2747
Climate Change Cell (2007) Climate Change and Bangladesh (Dhaka: Climate Change Cell, Department of Environment, the Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, with support from Comprehensive Disaster Management Program of the Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh and its development partners UNDP and DFID); available at: http://wwwclimatechangecellbd.org/publications/others/ccbd.pdf. Accessed 20 Dec 2020
Dasgupta S, Laplante B, Meisner C, Wheeler D, Yan J (2009) The impact of sea-level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis. Clim Change 93(3/4):379–388. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9499-5
Dasgupta S, Huq M, Khan ZH, Masud MS, Ahmed MMZ, Mukherjee N, Pandey K (2011) Climate proofing infrastructure in Bangladesh: the incremental cost of limiting future flood damage. J Environ Dev 20(2):167–190. https://doi.org/10.1177/1070496511408401
Dasgupta S, Huq M, Khan ZH, Ahmed MMZ, Mukherjee N, Khan FM, Pandey K (2010) Vulnerability of Bangladesh to cyclones in a changing climate—potential damages and adaptation cost. Policy research working paper 5280. The World Bank
del Ninno C, Dorosh PA, Smith LC (2003) Public policy, food markets and household coping strategies in Bangladesh: lessons from the 1998 floods. Food consumption and nutrition division, international food policy research institute, Washington, DC. FCND discussion paper no. 156 https://www.ifpri.org/publication/public-policy-food-markets-and-household-coping-strategies-bangladesh. Accessed 11 Dec 2020
Dickey DA, Fuller WA (1979) Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. J Am Stat Assoc 74(366):427–431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
Erickson NJ, Ahmed QK, Chowdhury AR (1993) Socioeconomic implications of Climate Change for Bangladesh. Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad, Dhaka
FAO (2002) The state of food insecurity in the world 2001. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome
FAO (2008) Climate change and food security: a framework document. http://www.fao.org/clim/index_en.htm. Accessed 10 Oct 2020
FAO (2017) GIEWS update Bangladesh: severe floods in 2017 affected large numbers of people and caused damage to the agriculture sector. Published October 3, 2017. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiRpomRiNn0AhXc7XMBHREPA1sQFnoECAQQAQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fao.org%2F3%2Fi7876e%2Fi7876e.pdf&usg=AOvVaw1_16j75M159_jerkUJy6kk. Accessed 10 Nov 2020
FAO (2020) Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database (FAOSTAT). Multiple access. http://www.fao.org. Accessed 20 Nov 2020
Felbermayr G, Groschl J (2014) Naturally negative: the growth effects of natural disasters. J Dev Econ 111:92–106
Gandure S, Walker S, Botha JJ (2013) Farmers’ perceptions of adaptation to climate change and water stress in a South African rural community. Environ Dev 5(2013):39–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2012.11.004
GoB (2008) Cyclone sidr in Bangladesh. Damage, loss and needs assessment for disaster recovery and reconstructions. Report prepared by the Government of Bangladesh with the financial support by the European Commission
Godfray HCJ, Beddington JR, Crute IR, Haddad L, Lawrence D, Muir JF, Pretty J, Robinson S, Thomas SM, Toulmin C (2010) Food security: the challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science, 327(5967):812–818.https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1185383
Greene AM, Hellmuth M, Lumsden T (2012) Stochastic decadal climate simulations for the Berg and Breede Water Management Areas, Western Cape province South Africa. Water Resour Res 48:1–13. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011152
Habibullah M, Ahmed AU, Karim Z (1998) Assessment of food grain production loss due to climate induced enhanced soil salinity. In: Huq S, Karim Z, Asaduzzaman M, Mahtab F (eds) Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change for bangladesh. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 55–70
Hasan M, Hossain M, Bari M, Islam M (2013) Agricultural land availability in Bangladesh. SRDI, Ministry of Agriculture, Dhaka, p 42
Hossain M (1990) Natural calamities, instability in production and food policy in Bangladesh. Bangladesh Dev Stud 18(1):33–54
Hossain A, Silva JAT (2013) Wheat and rice, the epicenter of food security in Bangladesh. Songklanakarin J Sci Technol 35(3):261–274. http://www.sjst.psu.ac.th
Huda ASN, Mekhilef S, Ahsan A (2014) Biomass energy in Bangladesh: current status and prospects. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 30:504–517. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2013.10.028n
Iddrisu AA, Alagidede IP (2020) Monetary policy and food inflation in South Africa: a quantile regression analysis. Food Policy 94(2020):101810. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2019.101816
IFPRI, (2013). Agriculture and adaptation in Bangladesh, current and projected impacts of climate change. Discussion paper 01281; International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA
IFRC (2014) Bangladesh: floods emergency appeal no. MDRBD014. https://reliefweb.int/report/bangladesh/bangladesh-floods-emergency-appeal-n-mdrbd014. Accessed 12 Nov 2020
IFRC (2020) International federation of red cross and red crescent societies-tropical cyclone amphan-may 2020. https://reliefweb.int/report/bangladesh/bangladesh-cyclone-amphan-operation-update-report-dref-operation-n-mdrbd024. Accessed 12 Dec 2020
IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis, contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Islam MB, Ali MY, Amin M, Zaman SM (2011) Climate variations: farming systems and livelihoods in the high barind tract and coastal areas of Bangladesh. In: Lal R, Sivakumar M, Faiz S, Mustafizur R, A., Islam, K., (eds) Climate change and food security in South Asia. Springer, Dordrecht
Islam AHMS, von Braun J, Thorne-Lyman AL, Ahmed AU (2018) Farm diversification and food and nutrition security in Bangladesh: empirical evidence from nationally representative household panel data. Food Secur 10(3):701–720
IUCN (2002) International Union for Nature and Natural Resources, (the World Conservation Union). Impact of climate variability on agriculture sector (final report). IUCN Bangladesh Country Office, Dhaka
Joardder MUH, Masud MH (2019) Food preservation in developing countries: challenges and solutions. Springer, Berlin
Josef S, Tubiello NF (2007) Global food security under climate change. PNAS. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0701976104
Karim A (2018) The household response to persistent natural disasters: evidence from Bangladesh. World Dev 103(2018):40–59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.10.026
Karim Z, Hussain SG, Ahmed M (1996) Assessing impacts of climate variations on food grain production in Bangladesh. In: Erda L, Bolhofer W, Huq S, Lenhart S, Mukherjee SK, Smith JB, Wisniewski J (eds) Climate change variability and adaptation in Asia and the Pacific. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 53–62
Karim MR, Ishikawa M, Ikeda M, Islam MT (2012) Climate change model predicts 33% rice yield decrease in 2100 in Bangladesh. Agron Sustain Dev 32:821–830. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-012-0096-7
Khandker SR (2007) Coping with flood: role of institutions in Bangladesh. Agric Econ 36:169–180
King M, Singh AP (2020) Understanding farmers’ valuation of agricultural insurance: evidence from Vietnam. Food Policy 94(2020):101861. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101861
Kobayashi S, Furuya J (2011) Comparison of climate change impacts on food security of Bangladesh. Stud Reg Sci 41:419–433
Lemi A (2005) Rainfall probability and agricultural yield in Ethiopia. East Afr Soc Sci Res Rev 21(1):57–96. https://doi.org/10.1353/eas.2005.0004
Mainuddin M, Kirby M (2015) National food security in Bangladesh to 2050. Food Secur 7:633–646. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-015-0465-6
McCarthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA, Dokken DJ, White KS (eds) (2001) Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Mirza MMQ (2002) Global warming and changes in the probability of occurrence of floods in Bangladesh and implications. Glob Environ Change 12(2):127–138. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00002-X
Miyan MA (2015) Droughts in Asian least developed countries: vulnerability and sustainability. Weather Clim Extremes 7(2015):8–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.06.003
MoF (2020) Ministry of food, the government of the people’s republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh. http://www.mofood.gov.bd. Accessed 20 Dec 2020
Mohajan HK (2014) Food and nutrition of Bangladesh. Peak J Food Sci Technol 2(1):1–17. http://www.peakjournals.org/sub-journals-PJFST
Mottaleb KA, Mohanty S, Hoang HTK, Rejesus RM (2013) The effects of natural disasters on farm household income and expenditures: a study on rice farmers in Bangladesh. J Agric Syst 121:43–52
Newman C, Trap F (2020) Shocks and agricultural investment decisions. Food Policy 94(2020):101810. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2019.101810
Niles MT, Lubell M, Brown M (2015) How limiting factors drive agricultural adaptation to climate change. Agric Ecosyst Environ 200(2015):178–185. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2014.11.010
Paul BK (1998) Coping mechanisms practiced by drought victims (1994/5) in North Bangle, Bangladesh. Appl Geogr 18(4):355–373
Paul BK, Rashid H (1993) Flood damage to rice crop in Bangladesh. Geogr Rev 83(2):150–159
Phillips PCB, Perron P (1988) Testing for a unit root in the time series regression. Biometrika 75(2):335–346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
Rahman A, Biswas PR (1995) Devours resources. Dhaka Courier 11(42):7–8
Rosenzweig C, Ellintt J, Deryng D, Ruane AC, Muller C, Arneth A, Boote KJ, Folberth C, Glotter M, Khaharov N, Neumann K, Piontek F, Pugh TAM, Schmid E, Stehfest E, Yang H, Jones JW (2013) Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. PNAS 111(9):3268–3273. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222463110
Roy T, Valdés JB, Lyon B, Demaria EMC, Serrat-Capdevila A, Gupta HV, Valdés-Pineda R, Durcik M (2018) Assessing hydrological impacts of short-term climate change in the Mara River basin of East Africa. J Hydrol 566:818–829. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.08.051
Salam MA, Furuya J, Alamgir MS, Kobayashi S (2016) Policy adaptation cost for mitigation of price variation of rice under climate change in Bangladesh, vol 30. Center for Environmental Information Science, Tokyo, pp 1–7
Sarker MAR, Alam K, Gow J (2012) Exploring the relationship between climate change and rice yield in Bangladesh: an analysis of time-series data. Agric Syst 112:11–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2012.60.004
Schneider N (2021) Population growth, electricity demand and environmental sustainability in Nigeria: insights from a vector auto-regressive approach. Int J Environ Stud. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207233.2021.1905317
Shrestha RP, Chaweewan N, Arunyawat S (2017) Adaptation to climate change by rural ethnic communities of Northern Thailand. Climate 5(3):57. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5030057
Sims CA (1980) Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica 48(1):1–48
Srinivasan PV, Jha S (1999) Food security through price stabilization: buffer stocks vs. variable levies. Econ Polit Wkly 34(46/47):3299–3304. http://www.jstor.org/stable/4408627
The Daily Star (2013) No rice import in last two years. The Daily Star, Dhaka
UN (2015) The United Nations, the 2030 agenda for sustainable development goals. https://sdgs.un.org/2030agenda. Accessed 10 Dec 2020
Wang J (2010) Food security, food prices and climate change in China: a dynamic panel data analysis. Agric Agric Sci Procedia 1(2010):321–324. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aaspro.2010.09.040
Wassmann R, Jagadish SVK, Sumfleth K, Pathak H, Howell G, Ismail A, Serraj R, Redona E, Singh RK, Heuer S (2009) Regional vulnerability of climate change impacts on Asian rice production and scope for adaptation. Adv Agron 102:91–133. http://www.elsevier.com/locate/permissionusematerial
World Bank (2021) The World bank national accounts data, GDP per capita (Current US$)-Bangladesh. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.ACAP.CD?location=BD. Accessed 15 Dec 2020
Yu WH, Alam M, Hassan A, Khan AS, Ruane AC, Rosenzweig C, Major DC, Thurlow J (2010) Climate change risk and food security in Bangladesh. Earthscan, London