Increasing Drought Risks Over the Past Four Centuries Amidst Projected Flood Intensification in the Kabul River Basin (Afghanistan and Pakistan)—Evidence From Tree Rings

Geophysical Research Letters - Tập 49 Số 24 - 2022
Nasrullah Khan1,2, Hung Nguyen3, Stefano Galelli4,3, Paolo Cherubini5,3,2
1Department of Botany, University of Malakand, Chakdara, Pakistan.
2WSL, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
3Tree Ring Laboratory Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University NY Palisades USA
4Pillar of Engineering Systems and Design, Singapore University of Technology and Design, Singapore, Singapore
5Faculty of Forestry University of British Columbia BC Vancouver Canada

Tóm tắt

Abstract

Increased flood risks have been projected, but with large uncertainties, in the Kabul River Basin (Afghanistan and Pakistan). To place future changes in a long‐term perspective, we produce a 382‐year precipitation reconstruction for the basin using seven tree‐ring chronologies of old‐growth conifers from the Hindu Kush Mountains, a monsoon‐shadow area. The reconstruction proves robust over rigorous cross‐validations (R2 = 0.60, RE = 0.60, CE = 0.53). The full reconstruction (1637–2018) reveals a steady decline in the low end of the precipitation distribution, implying increasing drought risks. We show that droughts are getting more severe, shorter, and more frequent, interspersed with more frequent pluvials in the past century. Drought risks, compounded with projected flood intensification, pose significant threats for this transboundary river. Therefore, future water management needs to account for both flood and drought risks and be informed by long‐term hydroclimatic variability.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

10.3390/atmos9040138

10.1016/j.dendro.2010.08.007

10.1016/j.jher.2021.08.001

10.1007/s10661-011-2337-7

10.14569/IJACSA.2015.060213

10.2166/wp.2017.119

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.12.075

10.1038/s41561-018-0262-x

10.1016/j.dendro.2008.01.002

10.1016/j.dendro.2017.03.005

Champion H. G., 1965, Forest types of Pakistan

10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00603.1

Cook E. R., 1985, A time series analysis approach to tree ring standardisation

Cook E. R. &Kairiukstis L. A.(Eds.). (1990).Methods of dendrochronology.Springer Netherlands.https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-7879-0

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.02.004

Cook E. R., 1981, The smoothing spline, a new approach to standardising forest interior tree‐ring, Trre‐Ring Bulletin, 41, 45

10.1038/s41561-019-0513-5

10.1038/nclimate3361

Gudmundsson L.(2016).Qmap: Statistical transformations for post‐processing climate model output. R package version 1.0‐4. Retrieved fromhttps://cran.r-project.org/package=qmap

10.1175/JCLI4042.1

10.1659/0276-4741(2005)025[0332:TKAGEA]2.0.CO;2

10.1029/2021WR030881

Holmes R. L., 1983, Computer assisted quality control, Tree‐Ring Bulletin, 43, 69

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.003

10.3390/geosciences8040114

10.18637/jss.v070.i01

10.1175/BAMS-83-11-1631

10.1038/ngeo2269

10.1002/joc.6193

10.2478/s13386-013-0115-8

Khan N., 2008, Dendroclimatic potential of Picea smithiana (Wall) Boiss. From Afghanistan, Pakistan Journal of Botany, 40, 1063

10.3354/cr00957

10.1017/CBO9780511754098

10.5194/hess-16-1063-2012

10.1007/s10669-007-9136-2

10.1038/d41586-022-02879-2

10.1073/pnas.2105636118

10.1111/j.1752-1688.1995.tb03388.x

10.1007/s12205-013-1978-1

10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6

Nguyen H. T. T., 2022, ntthung/Chitral‐precip: Code for Chitral precipitation reconstruction

10.1029/2020WR029394

10.1029/2022GL100442

10.1029/2020WR027883

10.1080/01621459.1994.10476870

Raizada M., 1960, Living Indian gymnosperms. Part 1 (Cycades, Ginkgoales and Coniferales), Indian Forest Records (Botany), 5, 73

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.03.074

10.1029/2019GL086689

Sahni K. C., 1990, Gymnosperms of India and adjacent countries

10.1175/2010JCLI3655.1

Shakir A. S., 2010, Climate change impact on river flows in Chitral watershed, Pakistan Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, 7, , 12

10.1080/02508060.2010.512996

10.1016/j.phyplu.2021.100024

Speer J. H., 2010, Fundamentals of tree‐ring research

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.12.057

Stokes M. A., 1996, An introduction to tree‐ring dating

10.3390/w13192628

10.1029/2020WR027706

10.1038/nature04743

UNCCD, 2022, The global land outlook

10.5194/hess-19-857-2015

10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023<0201:OTAVOC>2.0.CO;2

10.1038/nclimate1580

Yousaf S., 2017, Kabul River and Pak‐Afghan relations, Central Asian Journal, 80, 97

10.1111/nyas.14354

10.1007/s00382-015-2685-z

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Geophysical Research Letters

Tập 49 Số 24

Thông tin tác giả