Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity
Tóm tắt
Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non‐exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub‐continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst‐case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth.
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Baillie J.E.M. Hilton‐Taylor C.&Stuart S.N.. (2004).2004 IUCN red list of threatened species. In:A Global Species Assessment.IUCN Gland Switzerland and Cambridge UK. xxiv + 191 pp.
Campbell A., 2009, CBD Technical Series n°42, 124
Foden W., 2008, The 2008 Review of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, 1
Leadley P., 2010, Biodiversity scenarios: projections of 21st century change in biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, 1
Parmesan C., 2006, Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change, Ecol. Evol., 37, 637
Root B.A., 2003, Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants, Nature, 421, 47
Sala O.E., 2005, Chap 10: biodiversity across Scenarios, Millenium Ecosystem Assesment, 375
van Vuuren D.P., 2006, The future of vascular plant diversity under four global scenarios, Ecol. Soc., 11, 1, 10.5751/ES-01818-110225