I-MOVE multicentre case–control study 2010/11 to 2014/15: Is there within-season waning of influenza type/subtype vaccine effectiveness with increasing time since vaccination?

Eurosurveillance - Tập 21 Số 16 - 2016
Esther Kissling1, Baltazar Nunes2, Chris Robertson3,4, Marta Valenciano1, Annicka Reuß5, Amparo Larrauri6, Jean Marie Cohen7, Beatrix Oroszi8, Caterina Rizzo9, Ausenda Machado2, Daniela Piţigoi10, Lisa Domegan11, Iwona Paradowska-Stankiewicz12, Udo Buchholz5, Alin Gherasim6, Isabelle Daviaud7, J Horváth8, Antonino Bella9, Emilia Lupulescu13, Joan O ́Donnell11, Monika Roberta Korczyńska12, Alain Moren1
1Epiconcept, Paris, France
2Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal
3Health Protection Scotland, Glasgow, United Kingdom
4University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom
5Department for Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany
6National Centre for Epidemiology, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
7GROG/Open Rome, Paris, France
8Office of the Chief Medical Officer, Budapest, Hungary
9Istituto Superiore di Sanità#N#, Rome, Italy
10Universitatea de Medicina si Farmacie Carol Davila, Bucharest, Romania
11Health Protection Surveillance Centre, Dublin, Ireland
12National Institute of Public Health-National Institute of Hygiene, Warsaw, Poland
13Cantacuzino Institute, National Institute of Research – Development for Microbiology and Immunology, Bucharest, Romania

Tóm tắt

Since the 2008/9 influenza season, the I-MOVE multicentre case–control study measures influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against medically-attended influenza-like-illness (ILI) laboratory confirmed as influenza. In 2011/12, European studies reported a decline in VE against influenza A(H3N2) within the season. Using combined I-MOVE data from 2010/11 to 2014/15 we studied the effects of time since vaccination on influenza type/subtype-specific VE. We modelled influenza type/subtype-specific VE by time since vaccination using a restricted cubic spline, controlling for potential confounders (age, sex, time of onset, chronic conditions). Over 10,000 ILI cases were included in each analysis of influenza A(H3N2), A(H1N1)pdm09 and B; with 4,759, 3,152 and 3,617 influenza positive cases respectively. VE against influenza A(H3N2) reached 50.6% (95% CI: 30.0–65.1) 38 days after vaccination, declined to 0% (95% CI: -18.1–15.2) from 111 days onwards. At day 54 VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 reached 55.3% (95% CI: 37.9–67.9) and remained between this value and 50.3% (95% CI: 34.8–62.1) until season end. VE against influenza B declined from 70.7% (95% CI: 51.3–82.4) 44 days after vaccination to 21.4% (95% CI: -57.4–60.8) at season end. To assess if vaccination campaign strategies need revising more evidence on VE by time since vaccination is urgently needed.

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