Human-Induced Changes in the Hydrology of the Western United States

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) - Tập 319 Số 5866 - Trang 1080-1083 - 2008
T. P. Barnett1,2,3,4,5, David W. Pierce1,2,3,4,5, Hugo G. Hidalgo1,2,3,4,5, C. Bonfils1,2,3,4,5, Benjamin D. Santer1,2,3,4,5, Tapash Das1,2,3,4,5, Govindasamy Bala1,2,3,4,5, Andrew W. Wood1,2,3,5, Takashi Nozawa1,3,3,4,5, A.A. Mirin1,2,3,4,5, Daniel R. Cayan1,2,3,4,5, Michael D. Dettinger1,2,3,4,5
1Land Surface Hydrology Research Group, Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
2Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA
3National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
4Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
5U.S. Geological Survey, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.

Tóm tắt

Observations have shown that the hydrological cycle of the western United States changed significantly over the last half of the 20th century. We present a regional, multivariable climate change detection and attribution study, using a high-resolution hydrologic model forced by global climate models, focusing on the changes that have already affected this primarily arid region with a large and growing population. The results show that up to 60% of the climate-related trends of river flow, winter air temperature, and snow pack between 1950 and 1999 are human-induced. These results are robust to perturbation of study variates and methods. They portend, in conjunction with previous work, a coming crisis in water supply for the western United States.

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American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Tập 319 Số 5866

1080-1083

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