Heat-related respiratory hospital admissions in Europe in a changing climate: a health impact assessment
Tóm tắt
Respiratory diseases are ranked second in Europe in terms of mortality, prevalence and costs. Studies have shown that extreme heat has a large impact on mortality and morbidity, with a large relative increase for respiratory diseases. Expected increases in mean temperature and the number of extreme heat events over the coming decades due to climate change raise questions about the possible health impacts. We assess the number of heat-related respiratory hospital admissions in a future with a different climate.
A Europe-wide health impact assessment.
An assessment for each of the EU27 countries.
Heat-related hospital admissions under a changing climate are projected using multicity epidemiological exposure–response relationships applied to gridded population data and country-specific baseline respiratory hospital admission rates. Times-series of temperatures are simulated with a regional climate model based on four global climate models, under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
Between a reference period (1981–2010) and a future period (2021–2050), the total number of respiratory hospital admissions attributed to heat is projected to be larger in southern Europe, with three times more heat attributed respiratory hospital admissions in the future period. The smallest change was estimated in Eastern Europe with about a twofold increase. For all of Europe, the number of heat-related respiratory hospital admissions is projected to be 26 000 annually in the future period compared with 11 000 in the reference period.
The results suggest that the projected effects of climate change on temperature and the number of extreme heat events could substantially influence respiratory morbidity across Europe.
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Loddenkemper R Gibson G Sibille Y . European lung white book. Sheffield: European Respiratory Society/European Lung Foundation, 2003:1–182.
Rocklov J Forsberg B . Comparing approaches for studying the effects of climate extremes—a case study of hospital admissions in Sweden during an extremely warm summer. Glob Health Action 2009;2.
Knowlton, 2009, The 2006 California heat wave: impacts on hospitalizations and emergency department visits, Environ Health Perspect, 117, 61, 10.1289/ehp.11594
Forsberg, 2012, An expert assessment on climate change and health—with a European focus on lungs and allergies, Environ Health, 11, S4, 10.1186/1476-069X-11-S1-S4
IPCC. Climate change 2007—the physical science basis: Working Group I contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2007.
Rebetez, 2009, An analysis of the July 2006 heatwave extent in Europe compared to the record year of 2003, Theor Appl Climatol, 95, 1, 10.1007/s00704-007-0370-9
Samuelsson, 2011, The Rossby Centre Regional Climate model RCA3: model description and performance, Tellus ser A—Dyn Meteorol Oceanogr, 63, 4, 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00478.x
Collins, 2006, The community climate system model version 3 (CCSM3), J Climate, 19, 2122, 10.1175/JCLI3761.1
Roeckner E Bäuml G Bonaventura L . The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM 5. PART I: model description. Hamburg: MPI für Meteorologie, 2003.
Johns, 2006, The new Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadGEM1): evaluation of coupled simulations, J Climate, 19, 1327, 10.1175/JCLI3712.1
Roeckner E Arpe K Bengtsson L . The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. Hamburg: MPI für Meteorologie, 1996.
Nakicenovic N Alcamo J Davis G . Special report on emissions scenarios: a special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Richland, WA: Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (US), 2000:239 92.
Ballester, 2011, Long-term projections and acclimatization scenarios of temperature-related mortality in Europe, Nat Commun, 2, 358, 10.1038/ncomms1360
Beguin, 2011, The opposing effects of climate change and socio-economic development on the global distribution of malaria, Global Environ Change-Hum Policy Dimens, 21, 1209, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.06.001
Lawrence, 2005, The relationship between relative humidity and the dewpoint temperature in moist air: a simple conversion and applications, Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 86, 225, 10.1175/BAMS-86-2-225
Parsons KC . Human thermal environments: the effects of hot, moderate, and cold environments on human health, comfort, and performance: Taylor & Francis, London, 2003.
Lin, 2012, Excessive heat and respiratory hospitalizations in New York state: estimating current and future public health burden related to climate change, Environ Health Perspect, 120, 1571, 10.1289/ehp.1104728
Holmer, 2007, Cooling rates, sky view factors and the development of intra-urban air temperature differences, Geografiska Annaler: Series A Phys Geogr, 89, 237, 10.1111/j.1468-0459.2007.00323.x
Orru H Andersson C Ebi KL . Impact of climate change on ozone related mortality and morbidity in Europe. Eur Respir J 2012. (Epub ahead of print).
Giannakouris, 2008, Ageing characterises the demographic perspectives of the European societies, Statistics in focus, 72, 2008