Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high‐resolution seasonal forecast system

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society - Tập 141 Số 689 - Trang 1072-1084 - 2015
Craig MacLachlan1, Alberto Arribas1, K. Andrew Peterson1, Anna Maidens1, David Fereday1, Adam A. Scaife1, Margaret Gordon1, Michael Vellinga1, Andrew Williams1, Ruth Comer1, Joanne Camp1, Prince Xavier1, Gurvan Madec2
1Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
2French National Centre for Scientific Research, LOCEAN‐IPSL Paris France

Tóm tắt

This article describes the UK Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5). GloSea5 upgrades include an increase in horizontal resolution in the atmosphere (N216–0.7°) and the ocean (0.25°), and implementation of a 3D‐Var assimilation system for ocean and sea‐ice conditions. GloSea5 shows improved year‐to‐year predictions of the major modes of variability. In the Tropics, predictions of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation are improved with reduced errors in the West Pacific. In the Extratropics, GloSea5 shows unprecedented levels of forecast skill and reliability for both the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. We also find useful levels of skill for the western North Pacific Subtropical High which largely determines summer precipitation over East Asia.

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Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Tập 141 Số 689

1072-1084

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