Fluctuations in Uncertainty

Journal of Economic Perspectives - Tập 28 Số 2 - Trang 153-176 - 2014
Nicholas Bloom1
1Professor of Economics, Stanford University, Stanford, California, Co-Director of the Productivity Program, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Research Fellow, Center for Economic Performance, London School of Economics, London, United Kingdom, and Research Fellow, Center for Economic and Policy Research, London, United Kingdom. .

Tóm tắt

Uncertainty is an amorphous concept. It reflects uncertainty in the minds of consumers, managers, and policymakers about possible futures. It is also a broad concept, including uncertainty over the path of macro phenomena like GDP growth, micro phenomena like the growth rate of firms, and noneconomic events like war and climate change. In this essay, I address four questions about uncertainty. First, what are some facts and patterns about economic uncertainty? Both macro and micro uncertainty appear to rise sharply in recessions and fall in booms. Uncertainty also varies heavily across countries—developing countries appear to have about one-third more macro uncertainty than developed countries. Second, why does uncertainty vary during business cycles? Third, do fluctuations in uncertainty affect behavior? Fourth, has higher uncertainty worsened the Great Recession and slowed the recovery? Much of this discussion is based on research on uncertainty from the last five years, reflecting the recent growth of the literature.

Từ khóa


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Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Journal of Economic Perspectives

Tập 28 Số 2

153-176

Thông tin tác giả