Extreme seasonal droughts and floods in Amazonia: causes, trends and impacts

International Journal of Climatology - Tập 36 Số 3 - Trang 1033-1050 - 2016
José Marengo1, Jhan Carlo Espinoza2
1Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação Sao Paulo Brazil
2Subdirección de Ciencias de la Atmósfera e Hidrósfera (SCAH) Instituto Geofísico del Perú Lima Peru

Tóm tắt

ABSTRACTThis paper reviews recent progress in the study and understanding of extreme seasonal events in the Amazon region, focusing on drought and floods. The review includes a history of droughts and floods in the past, in the present and some discussions on future extremes in the context of climate change and its impacts on the Amazon region. Several extreme hydrological events, some of them characterized as ‘once in a century’, have been reported in the Amazon region during the last decade. While abundant rainfall in various sectors of the basin has determined extreme floods along the river's main stem in 1953, 1989, 1999, 2009, 2012–2015, deficient rainfall in 1912, 1926, 1963, 1980, 1983, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2005 and 2010 has caused anomalously low river levels, and an increase in the risk and number of fires in the region, with consequences for humans. This is consistent with changes in the variability of the hydrometeorology of the basin and suggests that extreme hydrological events have been more frequent in the last two decades. Some of these intense/reduced rainfalls and subsequent floods/droughts were associated (but not exclusively) with La Niña/El Niño events. In addition, moisture transport anomalies from the tropical Atlantic into Amazonia, and from northern to southern Amazonia alter the water cycle in the region year‐to‐year. We also assess the impacts of such extremes on natural and human systems in the region, considering ecological, economic and societal impacts in urban and rural areas, particularly during the recent decades. In the context of the future climate change, studies show a large range of uncertainty, but suggest that drought might intensify through the 21st century.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

10.1038/nature12797

10.1175/1520-0493(1988)116<0505:OTFOTS>2.0.CO;2

10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2

10.1111/1365-2745.12325

Anderson LO, 2013, Secas na Amazonia: Causas e Consequencias, 148

10.1007/s00704-010-0377-5

10.5194/cp-10-1967-2014

10.1029/2006GL028946

10.1098/rstb.2007.0026

10.1029/2001JD000676

10.1007/s00382-010-0903-2

10.1175/2009JAMC2030.1

10.1175/2011JCLI4189.1

Arraut E, 2013, Secas na Amazonia: Causas e Consequencias, 243

10.1577/15488659(1981)110<351:FYFTAI>2.0.CO;2

Bayley PB, 1989, Amazon fisheries: assessment methods, current status and management options, Can. Spec. Publ. Fish. Aquat. Sci., 106, 385

10.1007/s00704-004-0050-y

10.1029/2012GL053055

10.1098/rstb.2007.0023

10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01446.x

10.1073/pnas.1305499111

10.1038/nature14283

10.1029/2006EO260001

10.1029/2009JD013329

10.1098/rstb.2007.0014

10.1029/2010JD015174

10.1623/hysj.49.1.85.53992

Cavalcanti I, 2013, Secas na Amazonia: Causas e Consequencias, 54

10.1029/2010WR009383

Coelho C, 2013, Secas na Amazonia: Causas e Consequencias, 89

10.1029/2009JG001179

10.1038/35041539

10.1007/s00704-004-0049-4

10.1038/nature06960

10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03309.x

10.1038/nature10717

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.11.016

10.1038/nature14213

10.1029/2007JD00954

10.5194/hess-18-2577-2014

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.004

10.1002/joc.1791

10.1029/2011GL047862

10.1007/s00382-011-1010-8

10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024008

10.1175/JHM-D-12-0100.1

10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124007

10.1029/2011GL047392

Figueroa S, 1990, Precipitation distribution over central and western tropical South America, Climanalise, 6, 36

FilizolaN.2009.Cheia histórica de rios é resultado de coincidência rara explica pesquisador. Portal Amazônia com informações do Globo Amazônia – AL.http://portalamazonia.globo.com/pscript/noticias/noticias.php?pag0old&#x00026;idN082113(accessed 14 November 2011).

10.1016/j.geomorph.2013.05.028

10.1029/2002GB001872

10.1007/s00704-011-0560-3

10.1002/joc.3647

10.1073/pnas.1302584110

10.1038/nature12957

10.1002/grl.50206

10.1175/JHM-D-12-021.1

10.1002/grl.50377

10.1007/s00382-010-0914-z

10.5194/hess-16-911-2012

10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014035

GuyotJ‐L BourgesJ CortezJ.1994. Sediment transport in the Rio Grande an Andean River of the Bolivian Amazon drainage basin. InProceedings of the Canberra Symposium Variability in Stream Erosion and Sediment Transport Canberra Australia December 1994 IAHS No. 224.

10.1126/science.1210657

10.1038/NGEO1741

IPCC, 2013, Climate Change 2013: Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation. Part A: Global and Sectorial Aspects. Contribution of Working Group 2 to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1

JenkinsHS.2009.Amazon Climate Reconstruction Using Growth Rates and Stable Isotopes of Tree Ring Cellulose from the Madre de Dios Basin Peru. Dissertation Department of Earth & Ocean Sciences Duke University Durham North Carolina US.

10.1007/s00382-012-1644-1

Junk WJ, 1983, Distribution of fish species in a lake of the Amazon river floodplain near Manaus (Lago Camaleão), with special reference to extreme oxygen conditions, Amazoniana, 7, 397

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.04.004

10.5194/hess-17-2247-2013

10.1002/hyp.9418

10.1126/science.1200807

Lima D, 1999, Varzea: Diversity, Development, and Conservation of Amazonia's Whitewater Floodplains

Magrin GO, 2014, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

10.5194/acp-13-1039-2013

10.1073/pnas.0804619106

10.1002/joc.3370120808

10.1007/s00704-004-0045-8

Marengo JA, 2006, On the hydrological cycle of the Amazon basin: a historical review and current state‐of‐the‐art, Rev. Brasil. Meteorol., 21, 1

10.1002/hyp.7396

10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2261:COTLJE>2.0.CO;2

10.1175/2007JCLI1600.1

10.1098/rstb.2007.0015

Marengo JA, 2010, Extreme climatic events in the Amazon basin: climatological and hydrological context of previous floods, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 85, 1

10.1007/s00382-009-0721-6

10.1002/joc.2254

10.1029/2011GL047436

10.1002/joc.2254

10.4236/ajcc.2013.22009

10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00642.1

Marengo JA, 2014, The Large‐Scale Biosphere‐Atmosphere Programme in Amazonia

10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00022.1

10.1007/BF01704664

10.1007/BF01104077

Melack JM, 2009, Floodplain Ecosystem Processes, 525

10.1029/2007GL030157

10.1007/s10584-005-9035-9

10.1016/j.palaeo.2014.07.037

10.1002/hyp.9831

10.1016/j.cosust.2009.07.003

10.1175/JHM531.1

10.1029/2003GL018600

10.5194/hess-16-3127-2012

10.1002/wrcr.20067

10.5194/hess-17-2929-2013

10.1111/j.1095-8649.1983.tb04733.x

10.1002/2013GL059134

10.1126/science.1164033

PinhoPF OrloveB.2010. Seasons as temporal units for natural resources management: perspective from fishery management in the central Brazilian Amazon. InFifth Symposium on Policy and Socio‐economic Research.Second AMS Conference on International Cooperation in the Earth System Sciences and Services Atlanta GA 17–21 January 2010.

10.1007/s10113-014-0659-z

10.1126/science.246.4926.101

10.1038/416617a

10.1002/hyp.7586

10.1002/joc.1296

10.1002/joc.815

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.07.005

Ronchail J, 2006, Impact of the Amazon tributaries on flooding in Óbidos, IAHS Publ., 308, 220

RudolfB BeckC GrieserJ SchneiderU.2005. Global precipitation analysis products Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) DWD 1–8.

10.1002/2013WR014091

10.1002/2013WR014714

10.1126/science.225.4658.129

Salati E, 1978, Origem e distribuiçao das chuvas na Amazônia, Interciencia, 3, 200

10.1029/2010GL043538

10.1029/2007GL029695

10.1126/science.1146663

10.1029/2009GL042154

10.1007/s00704-009-0133-x

10.1007/s00704-012-0637-7

10.1002/grl.50245

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.11.005

10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0105.1

10.1007/s11269-012-9978-3

Sheffield J, 2011, Drought: Past Problems and Future Scenarios

10.1007/s10584-015-1338-x

10.1038/srep03726

10.1002/joc.1800

Sombroek W, 2001, Spatial and temporal patterns of Amazon rainfall: consequences for the planning of agricultural occupation and the protection of primary forests, Ambio, 30, 388, 10.1579/0044-7447-30.7.388

10.1038/nature11390

10.2307/521378

N. Szlafsztein 2012

10.1002/hyp.7889

10.1007/s10584-012-0508-3

10.1007/s10584-012-0461-1

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.004

10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<0551:TRBTPA>2.0.CO;2

Vale R, 2011, A cheia de 2009 na Amazonia Brasileira, Rev. Bras. Geocienc., 41, 577, 10.25249/0375-7536.2011414577586

10.1175/JCLI3896.1

10.1029/2011GL049017

Welcomme RL, 1979, Fisheries Ecology of Floodplain Rivers

Welcomme RL, 1990, Status of fisheries in South‐American rivers, Interciencia, 15, 337

10.1002/rrr.3450110110

10.1590/S0044-59672005000200013

10.1007/s00382-009-0551-6

10.5194/acp-14-13337-2014

10.1088/1748-9326/3/1/014002

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

International Journal of Climatology

Tập 36 Số 3

1033-1050

Thông tin tác giả