Sự tiến triển của các đợt hạn hán cực đoan ở Địa Trung Hải trong mùa mưa dưới tác động của biến đổi khí hậu

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Tập 19 - Trang 2339-2351 - 2020
Florian Raymond1, Albin Ullmann1, Yves Tramblay2, Philippe Drobinski3, Pierre Camberlin1
1Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, Biogéosciences, Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Dijon, France
2IRD - HydroSciences Montpellier, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France
3LMD/IPSL, École Polytechnique, Université Paris Saclay, ENS, PSL Research University, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Palaiseau, France

Tóm tắt

Các đợt hạn hán là những mối nguy thiên nhiên có tác động mạnh đến môi trường và nhiều lĩnh vực kinh tế xã hội. Sự tiến triển của chúng trong lưu vực Địa Trung Hải là một vấn đề lớn, vì đây là một trong những điểm nóng chịu ảnh hưởng biến đổi khí hậu cực đoan nhất trên thế giới. Các đợt hạn hán rất dài được định nghĩa là những sự kiện khí hậu có đặc điểm bởi vị trí, phạm vi không gian, thời gian xảy ra và tần suất. Nghiên cứu này khảo sát sự tiến triển của những sự kiện này trong mùa mưa và cho các kịch bản khí hậu khu vực trong tương lai của các sáng kiến Giảm thiểu Lưu vực Địa Trung Hải và Châu Âu (gọi là Med-CORDEX và EURO-CORDEX). Tất cả các mô phỏng đều được thực hiện với các mô hình khí hậu khu vực khác nhau và các kịch bản biến đổi khí hậu đa dạng. Các kết quả chính là (i) sự gia tăng số lượng các đợt hạn hán rất dài (giữa +3 và +31 sự kiện) và (ii) sự gia tăng về thời gian trung bình và phạm vi không gian của chúng. Sự gia tăng mức độ nghiêm trọng của các đợt hạn hán rất dài này có thể có tác động kinh tế xã hội mạnh mẽ, đặc biệt đối với những khu vực dễ bị tổn thương nhất.

Từ khóa

#hạn hán #biến đổi khí hậu #Địa Trung Hải #mô hình khí hậu khu vực #tác động kinh tế xã hội

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