Estimation of global black carbon direct radiative forcing and its uncertainty constrained by observations

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres - Tập 121 Số 10 - Trang 5948-5971 - 2016
Rong Wang1,2,3, Yves Balkanski1,3, Oliviér Boucher4, Philippe Ciais1,3, Gregory L. Schuster5, Frédéric Chevallier1, B. H. Samset6, Junfeng Liu2, Shilong Piao2,3, Myrto Valari7, Shu Tao2,3
1Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
2Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
3Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
4Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL/CNRS Pierre et Marie Curie Université Paris France
5NASA, Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia, USA
6CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Blindern, Oslo, Norway
7Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL, CNRS, Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France

Tóm tắt

AbstractBlack carbon (BC) contributes to global warming by absorbing sunlight. However, the size of this contribution, namely, the direct radiative forcing (RF), ranges from +0.1 to +1.0 W m−2, largely due to differences between bottom‐up and observation‐based estimates. Current global models systematically underestimate BC radiation absorption relative to observations, which is often attributed to the underestimation of BC emissions. Several studies that adjusted emissions to correct biases of global aerosol models resulted in a revised upward estimate of the BC RF. However, the BC RF was never optimized against observations in a rigorous mathematical manner. Here we simulated the absorption of solar radiation by BC from all sources at the 10 km resolution by combining a highly disaggregated emission inventory with a nested aerosol climate model and a downscaling method. As a result, the normalized mean bias in BC radiation absorption was reduced from −51% to −24% in Asia and from −57% to −50% elsewhere. We applied a Bayesian method that makes the best account of all model, representativeness and observational uncertainties to estimate the BC RF and its uncertainty. Using the new emission inventory and high‐resolution model reduces uncertainty in BC RF from −101%/+152% to −70%/+71% over Asia and from −83%/+108% to −64%/+68% over other continental regions. Finally we derived an observationally constrained BC RF of 0.61 Wm−2 (0.16 to 1.40 as 90% confidence) as our best estimate. Our estimate implies that reduction in BC emissions would contribute to slow down global warming, but the contribution could be less than previously thought.

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Thông tin xuất bản

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

Tập 121 Số 10

5948-5971

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