Tác động của các chính sách vĩ mô về an toàn tài chính đối với cho vay ngân hàng và rủi ro tín dụng

Stefanie Behncke1
1Swiss National Bank, Berne, Switzerland

Tóm tắt

Tôi phân tích tác động của hai biện pháp chính sách vĩ mô được thực hiện tại Thụy Sĩ: việc kích hoạt quỹ dự trữ vốn đối kháng chu kỳ (CCyB) và một giới hạn về tỷ lệ cho vay so với giá trị (LTV). Tôi sử dụng phương pháp khác biệt trong khác biệt (difference-in-differences) để ước lượng tác động của các biện pháp này lên các chỉ số rủi ro, chẳng hạn như tỷ lệ LTV, tỷ lệ cho vay so với thu nhập (LTI) và tỷ lệ tăng trưởng cho vay thế chấp. Tôi nhận thấy rằng cả CCyB và giới hạn LTV đều dẫn đến việc giảm thiểu tỷ lệ thế chấp có LTV cao. Các ngân hàng bị ảnh hưởng bởi CCyB cũng đã giảm tỷ lệ tăng trưởng cho vay thế chấp. Tôi không tìm thấy bất kỳ bằng chứng nào cho rằng các biện pháp này có tác động không mong muốn đến rủi ro LTI, các biện pháp khác về tiêu chuẩn cho vay thế chấp hoặc tăng trưởng tín dụng không thế chấp.

Từ khóa

#chính sách vĩ mô #quỹ dự trữ vốn đối kháng chu kỳ #tỷ lệ cho vay so với giá trị #tỷ lệ cho vay so với thu nhập #tín dụng ngân hàng #rủi ro tín dụng

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