Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and limitations

Progress in Physical Geography - Tập 21 Số 4 - Trang 530-548 - 1997
Robert L. Wilby1, T. M. L. Wigley2
1Division of Geography, University of Derby, Kedleston Road, Derby, DE22 1 GB, UK
2National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA

Tóm tắt

General circulation models (GCMs) suggest that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases may have significant consequences for the global climate. What is less clear is the extent to which local (subgrid) scale meteorological processes will be affected. So-called 'downscaling' techniques have subsequently emerged as a means of bridging the gap between what climate modellers are currently able to provide and what impact assessors require. This article reviews the present generation of downscaling tools under four main headings: regression methods; weather pattern (circulation)-based approaches; stochastic weather generators; and limited-area climate models. The penultimate section summarizes the results of an international experiment to intercompare several precipitation models used for downscaling. It shows that circulation-based downscaling methods perform well in simulating present observed and model-generated daily precipitation characteristics, but are able to capture only part of the daily precipitation variability changes associated with model-derived changes in climate. The final section examines a number of ongoing challenges to the future development of climate downscaling.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Amell, N.W., 1996, Global warming, river flows and water resources

10.1002/joc.3370151003

Bardossy, A., 1994, Knowledge based classification of circulation patterns for stochastic precipitation modelling

10.1016/0022-1694(91)90170-M

10.1029/91WR02589

Bartholy, J., 1994, Climatology, 51, 237

Bass, B., 1996, Focus, 4

10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<0205:TBIMPN>2.0.CO;2

Brown, B.G., Ninth conference on applied climatology

10.3354/cr007111

10.3354/cr005229

Carter, T.R., 1994, IPCC technical guidelines for assessing climate change impacts and adaptions. IPPC special report to Working Group II of IPCC

10.1002/joc.3370120206

Conway, D., 1996, POPSICLE- Production of Precipitation Scenarios for Climate Impacts in Europe (EC Environment Research Programme, final report EV5V-CT-94-0510)

— in press: The use of weather types and air flow indices for GCM downscaling. Journal of Hydrology (special issue).

10.3354/cr007169

10.1007/BF00209163

10.1175/1520-0450(1994)033<0140:ASTMFM>2.0.CO;2

Department of the Environment (DOE), 1996, Review of the potential effects of climate change in the United Kingdom

10.1016/0022-1694(93)90202-K

10.1016/0308-521X(91)90062-F

Frey-Buness, F., 1995, Climatology, 50, 117

10.1016/0169-8095(95)00025-9

10.1175/1520-0442(1990)003<0941:SORCUA>2.0.CO;2

10.1007/BF00209669

10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<0184:VATOTP>2.0.CO;2

10.1029/95JD02600

10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<0286:TUOGCM>2.0.CO;2

10.3354/cr004167

10.1029/90WR02650

10.1029/91JD01695

Hess, P., 1977, Katalog der Gosswetterlagen Europas (1881-1976)

10.1029/92GL01423

10.1016/0031-0182(92)90212-N

1994, Neural nets: applications in geography

10.3354/cr007085

10.3402/tellusa.v48i2.12062

10.1007/BF01096266

10.1029/93WR02983

10.1007/BF00210012

10.1007/s003820050155

10.1002/joc.3370130606

10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2

10.1175/1520-0442(1990)003<1053:AMORGC>2.0.CO;2

Kattenberg, A., Giorgi, F., Grassl, H., Meehl, G.A., Mitchell, J.F.B., Stouffer, R.J., Tokioka, T., Weaver, A.J. and Wigley, T.M.L. 1996: Climate models projections of future climate. In: Houghton, J.T., Meira Filho, L.G., Callander, B.A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A. and Maskell, K., editors, Climate change 1995: the science of climate change, contribution of Working Group I to the second assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 285-357.

10.1007/BF00142464

10.1175/1520-0477(1988)069<0007:MFGFON>2.0.CO;2

10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<2069:TSPOCI>2.0.CO;2

Lamb, H.H., 1972, British Isles weather types and a register of daily sequence of circulation patterns, 1861-1971

10.1175/1520-0450(1963)002<0056:MPCBSM>2.0.CO;2

Maochang, C., 1995, Tellus, 47, 132, 10.3402/tellusa.v47i1.11498

10.1007/s003820050152

10.1080/02626669309492704

10.1029/94WR01781

10.1080/02723646.1987.10642314

10.1080/07055900.1995.9649554

10.1016/0921-8181(94)00020-E

10.1007/BF00142465

10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<0245:OMOGWB>2.0.CO;2

10.1038/376501a0

10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<1111:CCASVO>2.0.CO;2

10.1002/joc.3370070104

10.1029/95JD02372

10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<1053:NIOMLU>2.0.CO;2

10.1029/WR017i001p00182

10.1038/358119a0

Schubert, S., 1994, A weather generator based on the European Grosswetterlagen. Spezialarbeiten aus der Arbertsgruppe Klimaforschung des Meteorologischen Instituts der Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin

10.1007/BF01096267

10.2307/622710

10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<1161:DOGCCE>2.0.CO;2

Weare, B.C., 1983, Meteorology, 22, 1000

10.1002/joc.3370110102

10.1029/JD095iD02p01943

Wigley, T.M.L., 1997, Geophysical Research Letters

10.1002/joc.3370130408

10.1029/94WR01840

10.1016/0022-1694(95)02715-2

— 1997a: Modelling high magnitude rainfall events using weather pattern and frontal analysis. Journal of Hydrology (special issue) in press.

10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19970330)17:4<439::AID-JOC145>3.0.CO;2-U

10.1002/joc.3370151105

Wilby, R.L., Proceedings of the international conference on water resources and environment research: towards the 21st century, 29-31 October

10.1016/0022-1694(94)90195-3

Wilby, R.L., 1997, Journal of Hydrology

Wilby, R.L., 1996, Statistical downscaling of general circulation model output. A report prepared by the National Center for Atmospheric Research on behalf of the

10.1029/WR025i006p01429

10.1007/BF00143344

Yamal, B., 1993, Synoptic climatology in environmental analysis: a primer

10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<1156:LIAFAI>2.0.CO;2

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Progress in Physical Geography

Tập 21 Số 4

530-548

Thông tin tác giả