Do Natural Resources Fuel Authoritarianism? A Reappraisal of the Resource Curse

American Political Science Review - Tập 105 Số 1 - Trang 1-26 - 2011
Stephen Haber1, Victor Menaldo2
1Stanford University
2University of Washington

Tóm tắt

A large body of scholarship finds a negative relationship between natural resources and democracy. Extant cross-country regressions, however, assume random effects and are run on panel datasets with relatively short time dimensions. Because natural resource reliance is not an exogenous variable, this is not an effective strategy for uncovering causal relationships. Numerous sources of bias may be driving the results, the most serious of which is omitted variable bias induced by unobserved country-specific and time-invariant heterogeneity. To address these problems, we develop unique historical datasets, employ time-series centric techniques, and operationalize explicitly specified counterfactuals. We test to see if there is a long-run relationship between resource reliance and regime type within countries over time, both on a country-by-country basis and across several different panels. We find that increases in resource reliance are not associated with authoritarianism. In fact, in many specifications we generate results that suggest a resource blessing.

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American Political Science Review

Tập 105 Số 1

1-26

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