Differential effects of climate and species interactions on range limits at a hybrid zone: potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change

Ecology and Evolution - Tập 5 Số 21 - Trang 5120-5137 - 2015
Michael A McQuillan1, Amber M. Rice1
1Department of Biological Sciences Lehigh University 111 Research Drive Bethlehem Pennsylvania 18015

Tóm tắt

AbstractThe relative contributions of climate versus interspecific interactions in shaping species distributions have important implications for closely related species at contact zones. When hybridization occurs within a contact zone, these factors regulate hybrid zone location and movement. While a hybrid zone's position may depend on both climate and interactions between the hybridizing species, little is known about how these factors interact to affect hybrid zone dynamics. Here, we utilize SDM (species distribution modeling) both to characterize the factors affecting the current location of a moving North American avian hybrid zone and to predict potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on future distributions. We focus on two passerine species that hybridize where their ranges meet, the Black‐capped (Poecile atricapillus) and Carolina (P. carolinensis) chickadee. Our contemporary climate models predict the occurrence of climatically suitable habitat extending beyond the hybrid zone forP. atricapillusonly, suggesting that interspecific interactions primarily regulate this range boundary inP. atricapillus, while climatic factors regulateP. carolinensis. Year 2050 climate models predict a drastic northward shift in suitable habitat forP. carolinensis. Because of the greater importance of interspecific interactions for regulating the southern range limit ofP. atricapillus, these climate‐mediated shifts in the distribution ofP. carolinensismay indirectly lead to a range retraction inP. atricapillus. Together, our results highlight the ways climate change can both directly and indirectly affect species distributions and hybrid zone location. In addition, our study lends support to the longstanding hypothesis that abiotic factors regulate species' poleward range limits, while biotic factors shape equatorial range limits.

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Ecology and Evolution

Tập 5 Số 21

5120-5137

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