Development of a clinical prediction algorithm for knee osteoarthritis structural progression in a cohort study: value of adding measurement of subchondral bone density

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Tập 19 - Trang 1-9 - 2017
Michael P. LaValley1, Grace H. Lo2,3, Lori Lyn Price4, Jeffrey B. Driban5, Charles B. Eaton6, Timothy E. McAlindon5
1Department of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, USA
2Medical Care Line and Research Care Line, Houston VA HSR&D Center for Innovations in Quality, Effectiveness and Safety, Michael E. DeBakey Medical Center, Houston, USA
3Section of Immunology, Allergy, and Rheumatology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, USA
4Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies at Tufts Medical Center, Tufts Clinical and Translational Science Institute, Tufts University, Boston, USA
5Division of Rheumatology, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, USA
6Department of Family Medicine, Alpert Medical School of Brown University, Pawtucket, USA

Tóm tắt

Risk prediction algorithms increase understanding of which patients are at greatest risk of a harmful outcome. Our goal was to create a clinically useful prediction algorithm for structural progression of knee osteoarthritis (OA), using medial joint space loss as a proxy; and to quantify the benefit of including periarticular bone mineral density (BMD) in the algorithm. Participants were from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) Progression Cohort, with X-ray readings of medial joint space at 36- and 48-month visits, and a 30- or 36-month medial-to-lateral tibial BMD ratio (M:L BMD ratio) value. Loss of medial joint space was the outcome and clinically available factors associated with OA progression were employed in the base prediction algorithm, with M:L BMD ratio added to an enhanced prediction algorithm. The benefit of adding M:L BMD ratio was evaluated by change in area under the ROC curve (AUC), net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Five hundred thirty-three participants were included; 51 (14%) had medial joint space loss; 47% were female; the mean (SD) age was 64.6 (9.2) years and BMI was 29.6 (4.8) kg/m2. The base algorithm model included age, BMI, gender, recent injury, knee pain, and hand OA as predictors and had an AUC value of 0.65. The algorithm adding M:L BMD ratio had an AUC value of 0.73, and the AUC, NRI and IDI were all significantly improved (p ≤ 0.002). This clinical prediction algorithm predicts structural progression in individuals with OA using only clinically available predictors supplemented by the M:L BMD ratio, a biomarker that could be made available at clinical sites.

Tài liệu tham khảo

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