Determinants of industrial output in Syria
Tóm tắt
This study attempts to investigate the determinants of industrial output in Syria over the period 1980–2010. The ADF unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response functions, variance decomposition analysis, and stability tests are used in this study. The Johansen cointegration test indicates that industrial output is positively related to capital, manufactured exports, population and agricultural output, but negatively related to the oil price. Agricultural output has the biggest effect on industrial output. The Granger causality test indicates bidirectional causality between capital, oil price, manufacturing exports, population, agricultural output, and industrial output in the short and long run.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Akpan ES, Riman HB, Duke J, Mboto HW (2012) Industrial production and non-oil export: assessing the long-run implication on economic growth in Nigeria. Int J Econ Financ 4(2):252–259
Dagher A (2000) Economic and development challenges facing Syria and Lebanon in the light of regional and international variables [online]. World Wide Web: http://www.lebarmy.gov.lb/article.asp?ln=ar&id=1326. Accessed 5th July 2014
David O, Umeh JC, Ameh A (2010) The Effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the Nigerian manufacturing sector. Afr J Bus Manag 4(14):2994–2998
Engle RF, Granger CWJ (1987) Co-integration and error-correction: representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica 55(2):251–276
Farzanegan MR, Markwardt G (2007) The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy. Dresden University of Technology, Dresden
Gollin D, Parente S, Rogerson R (2002) The role of agriculture in development. Am Econ Rev 92(2):160–164
Hulten CR, Bennathan E, Srinivasan S (2006) Infrastructure, externalities, and economic development: a study of the Indian manufacturing industry. World Bank Econ Rev 20(2):291–308
Jiranyakul K (2006) The Impact of international oil prices on industrial production: the case of Thailand. NIDA Econ Rev 1(2):35–42
Johansen S (1991) Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in gaussian vector autoregressive models. Econometrica 59(6):1551–1580
Kafri M (2004) Characteristics of the Syrian economy and development experience. Modern discussion, (4622). [online]. World Wide Web: http://www.ahewar.org/debat/show.art.asp?aid=22619. Accessed 28 Aug 2011
Kafri M (2010) Harvesting of the Syrian economy. Political Thought Mag 38:37–55
Lahham F (2010) The Syrian industry and its future challenges. Economic Society, Damascus
Lee K, Ni S (2002) On the dynamic effects of oil price shocks: a study using industry level data. J Monet Econ 49:823–852
Mamun KA, Nath HK (2005) Export-led growth in Bangladesh: a time series analysis. Appl Econ Lett 12(6):361–364
McGrath P (2006) Financial deregulation and industrial development: subsequent impact on economic growth in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. The University of Michigan, The William Davidson Institute Working Paper Number 818
Mehrara M, Sarem M (2009) Effects of oil price shocks on industrial production: evidence from some oil-exporting countries. OPEC Energ Rev 33(3–4):170–183
Naser A, Al-Ahras S, Breez B (2006) R&D in the Syrian industrial institutions. Center of Studies and Scientific Research, Damascus
Sharma C, Sehgal S (2010) Impact of infrastructure on output, productivity and efficiency: evidence from the Indian manufacturing industry. Indian Growth and Develop Rev 3(2):100–121
Sims CA (1980) Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica 48(1):1–48
Syrian Investment Agency (SIA) (2009) The fourth annual investment report in Syria. Syrian Investment Agency, Damascus
Uddin GS, Noman AM (2011) Causality between industrial production and exports in Bangladesh revisited. Glob J Financ Econ 8(1):77–87
Zegeye AK (2000) US public infrastructure and its contribution to private sector productivity. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington. BLS Working Paper No. 329