Dam Construction in Lancang‐Mekong River Basin Could Mitigate Future Flood Risk From Warming‐Induced Intensified Rainfall

Geophysical Research Letters - Tập 44 Số 20 - 2017
Wei Wang1,2, Hui Lü3,2, L. Ruby Leung4, Hong‐Yi Li5, Jianshi Zhao6, Fuqiang Tian6, Kun Yang3,2, Sothea Khem7
1Changjiang Institute of Survey, Planning, Design and Research, Wuhan, China
2Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
3Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing, China
4Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
5Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences and Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA
6State Key Laboratory of Hydro-Science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
7Mekong Institute of Cambodia Phnom Penh Cambodia

Tóm tắt

AbstractWater resources management, in particular flood control, in the Lancang‐Mekong River Basin (LMRB) faces two key challenges in the 21st century: climate change and dam construction. A large‐scale distributed Geomorphology‐Based Hydrological Model coupled with a simple reservoir regulation model (GBHM‐LMK‐SOP) is used to investigate the relative effects of climate change and dam construction on the flood characteristics in the LMRB. Results suggest an increase in both flood magnitude and frequency under climate change, which is more severe in the upstream basin and increases over time. However, stream regulation by dam reduces flood risk consistently throughout this century, with more obvious effects in the upstream basin where larger reservoirs will be located. The flood mitigation effect of dam regulation dominates over the flood intensification effect of climate change before 2060, but the latter emerges more prominently after 2060 and dominates the flood risk especially in the lower basin.

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Geophysical Research Letters

Tập 44 Số 20

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