Constructing and using scenarios to forecast demand for future mobile communications services

Emerald - 2006
SimonForge1, ColinBlackman2, ErikBohlin3
1Independent consultant based at SCF Associates Ltd, Princes Risborough, UK
2Independent consultant and editor of info and foresight based in Cambridge, UK
3Professor at the Chalmers University of Technology, Goteborg, Sweden.

Tóm tắt

PurposeAims to present a pragmatic method for long‐term forecasting and to illustrate its usage with the results of a recent case study to forecast future demand for mobile communications services.Design/methodology/approachA scenario construction methodology is explained in detail. The case material presented here is drawn from a forecasting exercise for the European Commission between September 2004 and April 2005 examining potential demand for mobile communications services up to 2020.FindingsThe formalized method and a synopsis of the actual scenarios generated in the case study are given here in outline. The paper also indicates how needs analysis was used in conjunction with the scenarios to generate a list of potential services and their use, which formed the basis of detailed traffic estimates. Certain aspects of the method and its results have been incorporated by the ITU working committees into their detailed preparations for the World Radiocommunication Conference's negotiations in 2007.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper can only give a brief description of the scenarios and provides only limited detail on how the scenarios were subsequently used to generate forecasts of demand for mobile communication services.Originality/valueThe paper demonstrates a socio‐economic forecasting method based on scenarios and their use in forecasting demand within the telecommunications sector.

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Tài liệu tham khảo

Forge, S., Blackman, C. and Bohlin, E. (2005), “The demand for future mobile communications markets and services in Europe”, Technical Report EUR 21673 EN, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, European Commission, Seville, available at: http://fms.jrc.es.

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