Climate change scenarios experiments predict a future reduction in small pelagic fish recruitment in the Humboldt Current system

Global Change Biology - Tập 19 Số 6 - Trang 1841-1853 - 2013
Timothée Brochier1, Vincent Échevin1, Jorge Tam2, Alexis Chaigneau3, Katerina Goubanova3, Arnaud Bertrand4
1Institut de Recherche pour le développement (IRD) UMR LOCEAN CNRS/IRD/IPSL/UPMC Boîte 100 – 4 Place Jussieu 75252 Paris Cedex 05 France
2Centro de Investigaciones en Modelado Oceanográfico y Biológico Pesquero (CIMOBP) Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE) Apdo. 22 Callao Lima Peru
3IRD UMR LEGOS CNES/CNRS/IRD/UPS 18, Av. Edouard Belin – 31400 Toulouse France
4IRD UMR EME, IRD/IFREMER/UM2 Rue Jean Monnet – BP171 – 34203 Sète France

Tóm tắt

AbstractThe Humboldt Current System (HCS) sustains the world′s largest small pelagic fishery. While a cooling of this system has been observed during recent decades, there is debate about the potential impacts of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations on upwelling dynamics and productivity. Recent studies suggest that under increased atmospheric CO2 scenarios the oceanic stratification may strongly increase and upwelling‐favorable winds may remain nearly constant off Peru and increase off Chile. Here we investigate the impact of such climatic conditions on egg and larval dispersal phases, a key stage of small pelagic fish reproduction. We used larval retention rate in a predefined nursery area to provide a proxy for the recruitment level. Numerical experiments are based on hydrodynamics downscaled to the HCS from global simulations forced by pre‐industrial (PI), 2 × CO2 and 4 × CO2 scenarios. A biogeochemical model is applied to the PI and 4 × CO2 scenarios to define a time‐variable nursery area where larval survival is optimum. We test two distinct values of the oxycline depth that limits larval vertical distribution: One corresponding to the present‐day situation and the other corresponding to a shallower oxycline potentially produced by climate change. It appeared that larval retention over the continental shelf increases with enhanced stratification due to regional warming. However, this increase in retention is largely compensated for by a decrease of the nursery area and the shoaling of the oxycline. The underlying dynamics are explained by a combination of stratification effects and mesoscale activity changes. Our results therefore show that future climate change may significantly reduce fish capacity in the HCS with strong ecological, economic and social consequences.

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Global Change Biology

Tập 19 Số 6

1841-1853

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