Climate change, non‐indigenous species and shipping: assessing the risk of species introduction to a high‐Arctic archipelago

Diversity and Distributions - Tập 20 Số 1 - Trang 10-19 - 2014
Chris Ware1,2, Jørgen Berge3,4, Jan H. Sundet5, JB Kirkpatrick1, Ashley D.M. Coutts6, Anders Jelmert7, Steffen M. Olsen8, Oliver Floerl9, Mary S. Wisz10,11, Inger Greve Alsos2
1University of Tasmania Churchill Avenue Sandy Bay Tas. 7005 Australia
2University of Tromsø Tromsø University Museum Kvaløyvegen 30 Tromsø 9037 Norway
3Faculty of Biosciences, Fisheries, and Economics University of Tromsø Tromsø 9037 Norway
4University Centre on Svalbard PO Box 156 Longyearbyen 9171 Norway
5Institute of Marine Research PO Box 6404 Tromsø 9294 Norway
6Biofouling Solutions PTY LTD, 244 Summerleas Rd, Kingston, Tas., 7050 Australia
7Institute of Marine Research, PO Box 1870 Nordnes, Bergen, 5817 Norway
8Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, Copenhagen 2100, Denmark
9SINTEF Fisheries & Aquaculture Brattørkaia 17C Trondheim 7010 Norway
10Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000, Roskilde, Denmark
11Greenland Climate Research Centre, Greenland Institute of Natural Resources, Nuuk, Greenland

Tóm tắt

AbstractAimAnticipated changes in the global ocean climate will affect the vulnerability of marine ecosystems to the negative effects of non‐indigenous species (NIS). In the Arctic, there is a need to better characterize present and future marine biological introduction patterns and processes. We use a vector‐based assessment to estimate changes in the vulnerability of a high‐Arctic archipelago to marine NIS introduction and establishment.LocationGlobal, with a case study of Svalbard, Norway.MethodsWe base our assessment on the level of connectedness to global NIS pools through the regional shipping network and predicted changes in ocean climates. Environmental match of ports connected to Svalbard was evaluated under present and future environmental conditions (2050 and 2100 predicted under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario). Risk of NIS introduction was then estimated based on the potential for known NIS to be transported (in ballast water or as biofouling), environmental match, and a qualitative estimate of propagule pressure.ResultsWe show that Svalbard will become increasingly vulnerable to marine NIS introduction and establishment. Over the coming century, sea surface warming at high latitudes is estimated to increase the level of environmental match to nearly one‐third of ports previously visited by vessels travelling to Svalbard in 2011 (n = 136). The shipping network will then likely connect Svalbard to a much greater pool of known NIS, under conditions more favourable for their establishment. Research and fishing vessels were estimated to pose the highest risk of NIS introduction through biofouling, while ballast water discharge is estimated to pose an increased risk by the end of the century.Main conclusionsIn the absence of focused preventative management, the risk of NIS introduction and establishment in Svalbard, and the wider Arctic, will increase over coming decades, prompting a need to respond in policy and action.

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Diversity and Distributions

Tập 20 Số 1

10-19

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